The ongoing 2026 Iran war, featuring repeated US airstrikes and naval operations since late February, anchors trader expectations around eight total countries for the year. Earlier actions include the January raid capturing Venezuela’s leader, sustained strikes on ISIS targets in Syria, Yemen, and Somalia, plus reported operations touching Iraq, Nigeria, and Ecuador. July 2026 saw additional waves of CENTCOM strikes degrading Iranian military sites without introducing new nations. This pattern of focused escalation in established theaters, absent major expansions into fresh countries, supports the market’s heavy weighting toward eight while leaving limited room for one incremental addition before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIran claims retaliatory drone attack on US military facilities in Kuwait
On July 31, 2026, Iran's army claimed a retaliatory drone strike on US military facilities at Kuwait's Ahmad Al-Jaber Air Base, marking US military involvement on Kuwaiti soil and expanding the conflict beyond Iran.
Iran claims retaliatory drone attack on US military facilities in Kuwait
Iran's army claimed a drone attack on US military facilities at Kuwait's Ahmad Al-Jaber Air Base, marking US military action on Kuwaiti soil and expanding the number of countries involved in the conflict as per market criteria.
Russian ballistic missile strikes US drone factory in Ukraine
A Russian missile hit a drone factory owned by a US company in Kyiv, Ukraine, marking the first reported attack on an American-affiliated site during the Russia-Ukraine war, indicating US military involvement on Ukrainian soil.
US Central Command conducts heavy airstrikes against Iran following attacks on US forces in Jordan
In late July 2026, the US carried out a wave of heavy airstrikes against Iranian military targets in response to Iranian attacks on US forces in Jordan, marking continued escalation in the US-Iran conflict.
US completes series of strikes against Iranian targets near Strait of Hormuz
On July 30, 2026, the US completed a series of strikes targeting Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites near the Strait of Hormuz, continuing the focused military campaign on Iranian soil.
Drone strike near Suez Canal in Egypt signals new front in US-Iran war
10 jumps to 42%7%
On July 30, 2026, a drone strike on gas vessels in Egypt's port of Damietta raised concerns about the widening US-Iran conflict, potentially involving Egypt as a new country where US military action or related conflict occurs.
Drone strike near Suez Canal in Egypt signals new front in US-Iran war
8 surges to 66%31%
A drone strike on gas vessels in Egypt's port of Damietta raised concerns about expanding conflict zones. Although the US denied damage to its aircraft, this event suggested potential US military involvement or impact in Egypt, possibly increasing the count of countries targeted in 2026.
U.S. launches more strikes on Iranian sites around Strait of Hormuz amid continued Iranian aggression
The U.S. military conducted additional strikes on Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites near the Strait of Hormuz, responding to ongoing Iranian attacks and signaling persistent military engagement in Iran.
US launches new airstrikes against Iran following Iranian missile attack on US base in Jordan
8 jumps to 41%7%
On July 29, 2026, the US conducted a heavy wave of airstrikes against Iranian military targets in response to an Iranian missile attack on a US base in Jordan, further escalating US military involvement in the region and reinforcing market expectations.
Drone strike causes explosion at port in Damietta, Egypt, hitting U.S. gas-storage tanker
8 surges to 68%29%
A drone strike on July 29, 2026, caused an explosion at the port of Damietta, Egypt, setting fire to two ships including a U.S.-owned gas-storage tanker. This marked a U.S. military strike on Egyptian soil, expanding the geographic scope of U.S. military actions in 2026.
US military completes heavy wave of strikes against Iran in response to missile attack on US base in Jordan
On July 29, 2026, the US military completed a heavy wave of strikes against Iranian military targets following an Iranian missile attack on a US base in Jordan, further escalating the conflict and involving multiple countries in the region.
US conducts heavy wave of strikes on Iranian military targets amid regional escalation
On July 29, 2026, the US military completed a heavy wave of strikes on Iranian military command centers, air defense, missile and drone launch sites, and communications networks, further escalating the conflict and impacting multiple countries' territories.
Iranian forces claim retaliatory drone attack on US facilities in Kuwait
8 jumps to 47%8%
Iran's army claimed a retaliatory drone strike on US military facilities at Kuwait's Ahmad Al-Jaber Air Base, though US and Kuwaiti authorities did not confirm damage. This indicated regional escalation involving US military presence in Kuwait, affecting market views on the number of countries struck.
US conducts heavy wave of strikes against Iran in response to missile attack
9 jumps to 43%8%
On July 29, 2026, the US military completed a heavy wave of strikes against Iran following an Iranian missile attack on a US base in Jordan, further intensifying the conflict and maintaining market expectations for multiple strikes in Iran.
US airstrike targets border area near western Iranian city
The US conducted airstrikes near a western Iranian city, further demonstrating ongoing military operations on Iranian soil during the 2026 conflict.
Iranian Revolutionary Guard launches missile and drone strikes on US military sites in Gulf
8 jumps to 40%6%
The IRGC retaliated with a massive barrage of ballistic missiles and drone swarms targeting eight US military installations across the Persian Gulf, breaching regional air defenses and escalating the conflict beyond Iran's borders.
US and Saudi forces strike Iran-aligned groups in eastern Iraq
In retaliation for drone attacks on Saudi oil targets launched from Iraq, US and Saudi forces conducted strikes against Iran-aligned groups in eastern Iraq, expanding US military action to Iraq.
US intensifies airstrikes on Iran amid rising pressure and sanctions
8 surges to 68%27%
The U.S. Central Command announced new airstrikes against Iran as part of a powerful response to Iranian attacks on U.S. forces, accompanied by sanctions targeting Iranian companies funding the IRGC, increasing the likelihood of continued military action.
US military completes heavy wave of strikes against Iran in response to missile attack on US base in Jordan
8 jumps to 41%6%
The US conducted a heavy wave of airstrikes against Iranian military targets following an Iranian missile attack on a US base in Jordan, signaling sustained military pressure on Iran and reinforcing market expectations of multiple strikes in Iran.
US completes heavy wave of strikes on Iranian military targets amid regional fighting
The US military completed a heavy wave of strikes on Iranian military targets in response to Iranian missile and drone attacks on US and allied forces in the region, including in Iraq and Jordan, maintaining pressure on Iran across multiple countries.
U.S. airstrikes target Popular Mobilization Forces base in Iraq amid regional conflict
The U.S. conducted airstrikes on a militia base in Iraq linked to Iranian-backed groups, expanding military action to Iraqi territory and increasing the number of countries where the U.S. conducted strikes in 2026.
U.S. military completes heavy wave of strikes against Iran in response to missile attack on U.S. base in Jordan
The U.S. conducted a significant airstrike campaign against Iranian targets following an Iranian missile attack on a U.S. base in Jordan, demonstrating sustained military action on Iranian soil and regional retaliation dynamics.
U.S. thwarts Iranian missile attack and conducts strikes on Iran-linked sites in Iraq
12 drops to 2%5%
U.S. forces intercepted an Iranian missile attack and launched retaliatory strikes against weapons and logistics sites in eastern Iraq used by Iran-backed militias, expanding military actions to Iraq.
US and Saudi forces strike multiple terrorist logistics and weapons sites in eastern Iraq
In retaliation for drone attacks, US and Saudi forces conducted strikes on terrorist sites in eastern Iraq, marking US military action on Iraqi soil in 2026.
US and Saudi forces strike terrorist sites in eastern Iraq in response to drone attacks
9 drops to 25%5%
In retaliation for over 30 drone attacks by Iran-aligned terrorists, US and Saudi forces conducted strikes on multiple terrorist logistics and weapons sites in eastern Iraq, expanding US military action to Iraqi soil.
US launches ninth consecutive night of airstrikes against Iran targeting missile and drone sites
8 rises to 41%3%
On July 21, 2026, the US launched a ninth straight night of airstrikes against Iranian air defenses, missile, and drone sites, following Iranian attacks on US-aligned airbases. This sustained campaign reinforced the focus on Iran as the primary country targeted by US military strikes in 2026.
US Central Command begins ninth consecutive night of air strikes against Iran
8 surges to 68%29%
The US launched a three-hour wave of airstrikes targeting Iranian military command centers, missile and drone launch sites, and maritime capabilities, continuing sustained military action on Iranian soil.
US launches ninth consecutive night of air strikes against Iran
8 jumps to 65%10%
US Central Command began a three-hour wave of airstrikes targeting Iranian military command centers, missile and drone launch sites, and communications networks, marking the ninth consecutive night of strikes aimed at securing the Strait of Hormuz.
US completes additional airstrikes against Iran following Iranian attacks on US allies
8 rises to 41%3%
The U.S. military launched another wave of strikes targeting Iranian military command centers, missile and drone launch sites, and air defense systems to degrade Iran's ability to attack commercial vessels and US allies in the Gulf.
U.S. Central Command begins ninth consecutive night of airstrikes against Iran
CENTCOM launched a three-hour wave of airstrikes targeting Iranian military command centers, air defense, missile and drone launch sites, marking the ninth consecutive night of strikes on Iranian soil.
US completes ninth consecutive night of strikes on Iran amid missile interceptions in Jordan and Bahrain
US Central Command announced the completion of nine consecutive nights of strikes on Iranian military targets, including command centers and missile launch sites. Concurrently, Iranian missile strikes were intercepted in Jordan and Bahrain, indicating ongoing conflict across multiple countries hosting US forces.
US completes ninth consecutive night of strikes on Iran
8 surges to 68%30%
US Central Command announced completion of nine consecutive nights of strikes targeting Iranian military command centers, air defense, coastal surveillance, missile and drone launch sites, and communications networks, confirming sustained US air strikes on Iran.
US launches new airstrikes to punish Iran for killing US troops in Jordan
9 rises to 35%4%
Following an Iranian attack that killed US troops in Jordan, the US launched new airstrikes against Iranian Revolutionary Guard targets on July 18, 2026, escalating the conflict and reinforcing expectations of sustained US military action in Iran.
US launches new airstrikes against Iran to punish Revolutionary Guard for attack killing American troops
On July 18, 2026, the US launched new airstrikes against Iranian military targets to punish the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps for an attack in Jordan that killed American service members, intensifying the conflict and increasing the number of countries involved.
Iranian strikes kill US troops and damage US base in Jordan
9 dips to 29%1%
Iranian missile and drone strikes on US military sites in Jordan killed two US troops and damaged facilities, expanding the conflict's geographic scope and influencing market expectations about US military actions in multiple countries.
US launches new airstrikes to punish Iran for attack killing American troops in Jordan
8 jumps to 41%6%
In response to an Iranian attack in Jordan that killed two American service members, the US launched new airstrikes targeting Iranian Revolutionary Guard facilities, signaling a continued and intensified US military campaign on Iranian soil.
U.S. military launches new airstrikes to punish Iran for attack killing U.S. troops in Jordan
In retaliation for an Iranian attack on a U.S. base in Jordan that killed American service members, the U.S. conducted airstrikes on Iranian infrastructure, continuing the military campaign.
US military launches airstrikes to punish Iran for deaths of US troops
8 jumps to 55%5%
Following an Iranian attack in Jordan that killed US service members, the US conducted airstrikes damaging infrastructure in southern Iran near the Strait of Hormuz, signaling a swift punitive response and continuing military action on Iranian soil.
US launches new airstrikes on Iran after deadly Iranian missile and drone attacks in Jordan
Following Iranian missile and drone attacks on US military bases in Jordan that killed three US service members, the US launched retaliatory airstrikes against Iranian targets to degrade their military capabilities, expanding US military action to Jordanian soil as well.
US launches ninth consecutive night of airstrikes on Iran after troop deaths
8 jumps to 41%6%
Following the deaths of US service members in Jordan, the US launched a ninth straight night of airstrikes targeting Iranian air defenses, missile, and drone sites, escalating the military campaign in Iran and reinforcing the count of strike countries.
US launches new airstrikes against Iran in retaliation for troop deaths in Jordan
Following an Iranian missile and drone attack in Jordan that killed US service members, the US launched retaliatory airstrikes against Iranian forces, expanding the scope of US military action in the region and confirming Jordan as a country affected by US strikes.
US completes multiple drone and missile strikes on Iranian targets amid regional tensions
8 jumps to 41%6%
US military forces conducted several consecutive nights of strikes against Iranian military infrastructure, including drone and missile sites, as part of ongoing conflict escalation. These actions sustained market expectations of US military activity on Iranian soil.
US launches new airstrikes against Iran to punish Revolutionary Guard for attack in Jordan
8 jumps to 37%11%
In retaliation for an Iranian missile attack that killed US troops in Jordan, the US launched new airstrikes against Iranian military targets to degrade Iran's ability to threaten commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. This further confirmed ongoing US military action in Iran.
U.S. launches new airstrikes against Iran to punish attacks on American forces in Jordan
Following Iranian attacks on U.S. service members in Jordan, the U.S. launched new airstrikes targeting Iranian military infrastructure near the Strait of Hormuz, further escalating the conflict and confirming continued strikes on Iranian soil.
US military launches new airstrikes to punish Iran for attack killing US troops in Jordan
Following an Iranian attack on a US base in Jordan that killed two American service members, the US conducted airstrikes against Iranian Revolutionary Guard targets to degrade their military capabilities.
US military launches airstrikes on Iran to punish Revolutionary Guard after attack in Jordan
9 jumps to 41%7%
On July 18, 2026, the US conducted airstrikes against Iran targeting infrastructure near the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for an Iranian attack on a US base in Jordan that killed American service members, escalating the conflict and involving multiple countries' territories.
U.S. military launches new airstrikes to punish Iran for deaths of U.S. troops in Jordan
Following an Iranian attack in Jordan that killed two American service members, the U.S. launched new airstrikes against Iranian targets, including infrastructure and military sites, escalating military actions on Iranian soil.
Iranian missile and drone strikes target US bases in Jordan and Gulf states
8 surges to 67%26%
In mid-July 2026, Iran launched missile and drone attacks on US military facilities in Jordan, Kuwait, and Bahrain in retaliation for US strikes, expanding the conflict to multiple countries' territories. These attacks confirmed US military involvement in several countries in the region.
US expands air strike campaign hitting bridges and infrastructure in Iran
On July 17, 2026, the US expanded its air strikes to include bridges and infrastructure in Iran, aiming to pressure Tehran over the Strait of Hormuz, marking a strategic escalation in the air campaign on Iranian territory.
Iranian missile and drone attacks hit multiple Gulf countries including Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, and Qatar
8 jumps to 31%8%
Iran launched missile and drone strikes against several Gulf countries hosting U.S. military bases, including Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, and Qatar, expanding the conflict to multiple countries' soil and complicating U.S. military engagement in the region.
U.S. launches new strikes on Iran as Tehran targets Gulf sites including Kuwait and Bahrain
8 jumps to 23%9%
The U.S. conducted another wave of strikes targeting Iranian command centers and missile capabilities, while Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks on U.S. military assets in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan, expanding the conflict regionally.
US launches new wave of strikes on Iranian command centers and missile sites
8 jumps to 47%12%
On July 15, 2026, US Central Command announced a new series of strikes targeting Iranian command centers, air defense sites, missile and drone capabilities, and coastal surveillance facilities. This continued focus on Iranian territory without expansion to other countries sustained market expectations of a single-country military action count.
U.S. military launches massive multi-wave air campaign against Iranian missile and drone sites
10 dips to 13%1%
CENTCOM conducted a massive multi-wave air and maritime campaign targeting Iranian missile, drone, and coastal defense sites near the Strait of Hormuz, marking the most intense escalation of direct U.S. kinetic warfare on Iranian soil in 2026.
Iran launches drone and missile attacks on US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan
Iranian forces launched several drone and missile attacks on US military bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan, which were intercepted but increased regional tensions and prompted further US strikes on Iranian targets.
US launches new strikes on Iranian command and missile sites amid ongoing conflict
8 jumps to 41%5%
US Central Command announced a new wave of strikes targeting Iranian command centers, air defense, missile, and drone capabilities to reduce Iran's ability to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, continuing the pattern of US military action focused solely on Iran.
U.S. launches multi-wave air campaign against Iranian military installations near Strait of Hormuz
9 rises to 34%1%
CENTCOM conducted sustained air and maritime strikes targeting Iranian missile, drone, and coastal defense sites, escalating the conflict and confirming continued U.S. military action on Iranian soil. This event reinforced market confidence in a limited number of countries struck, primarily Iran and Syria.
US launches new airstrikes on Iran to punish Revolutionary Guard after attack in Jordan
8 jumps to 7%6%
On July 15, 2026, the US conducted new airstrikes against Iran targeting Revolutionary Guard facilities following an Iranian attack on a US base in Jordan that killed two American service members. This confirmed continued US strikes limited to Iranian territory despite Iranian missile and drone attacks on US bases in Gulf countries.
US launches multiple strikes across Iran; Iran attacks US military facilities in Jordan
The US conducted another wave of strikes targeting Iranian command centers and missile sites. Iran responded with drone attacks on US military bases in Jordan, confirming US military action on Jordanian soil and expanding the conflict's geographic scope.
U.S. conducts massive 5-hour precision strike across Iran amid escalating conflict
10 dips to 9%2%
The U.S. military carried out a highly coordinated, extensive airstrike campaign targeting numerous Iranian military assets deep within Iran, confirming ongoing and significant U.S. military action on Iranian soil in 2026.
U.S. military completes another wave of strikes against Iran
The U.S. military completed another wave of air and missile strikes targeting Iranian military facilities, including missile launch sites and infrastructure, continuing sustained military operations on Iranian soil.
US uses one-way attack sea drones to strike Iranian port of Bandar Abbas
8 jumps to 41%6%
The US employed one-way attack sea drones in combat for the first time to strike the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas, continuing its military campaign on Iranian soil and demonstrating advanced drone warfare capabilities.
U.S. retaliatory airstrikes hit 140 Iranian military targets amid regional escalation
10 dips to 14%2%
CENTCOM launched multi-wave airstrikes on approximately 140 military targets inside Iran, including coastal radar, air-defense installations, and IRGC small boats, further intensifying U.S. military operations on Iranian soil and impacting market expectations.
U.S. employs sea drones in combat for first time striking Iranian naval base
9 rises to 34%3%
U.S. Central Command used autonomous sea drones to strike a submarine and ship maintenance facility at Bandar Abbas naval base in Iran, marking a new method of attack but still confined to Iranian soil.
US uses unmanned sea drones in combat for first time to attack Iranian naval base
8 jumps to 38%12%
The US military employed one-way attack sea drones for the first time in combat, striking the Bandar Abbas Naval Base in Iran, demonstrating advanced drone warfare capabilities and intensifying the air campaign against Iran.
US resumes strikes on Iran as Iran targets US military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain
9 drops to 34%5%
The US conducted another round of strikes against Iran targeting multiple military sites, while Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks on US military facilities in Kuwait and Bahrain, expanding the conflict to multiple countries' territories.
U.S. completes five-hour mission striking multiple Iranian military targets
The U.S. conducted a five-hour mission striking military targets across Iran including Bushehr, Chah Bahar, Jask, Konarak, Abu Musa, and Bandar Abbas to degrade Iran’s ability to attack commercial shipping. This continued focus on Iranian territory confirmed market expectations of limited country involvement.
U.S. resumes airstrikes on Iran after Iranian missile attacks on Gulf allies
Following Iranian missile and drone attacks on U.S. allies Kuwait and Bahrain, the U.S. resumed airstrikes on Iranian military targets, escalating the conflict further.
US AFRICOM conducts airstrikes targeting al-Shabaab in Somalia
In July 2026, US Africa Command conducted multiple airstrikes targeting al-Shabaab militants in Somalia, reflecting an intensified US counterterrorism campaign in the region. These strikes confirm Somalia as a country where the US conducted military air operations in 2026.
US uses one-way attack sea drones in combat for first time against Iranian naval base
8 rises to 39%4%
The US military employed unmanned sea drones to strike the Bandar Abbas Naval Base in Iran, marking a new phase of aerial and drone strikes on Iranian territory.
US uses sea drones in combat for first time to attack Iranian naval base
US Central Command announced the first combat use of unmanned sea drones in an attack on the Bandar Abbas Naval Base, marking a new phase in US military operations against Iran and reinforcing the US presence and strike capability on Iranian soil.
US resumes strikes on Iranian targets amid escalating regional tensions
8 jumps to 38%6%
The U.S. conducted a wave of airstrikes against Iranian military targets near the Strait of Hormuz, including missile and drone sites, as tensions escalated with Iran and its regional proxies.
US completes another round of strikes on Iran targeting multiple military sites
8 jumps to 35%5%
On July 13, 2026, US forces conducted a five-hour mission striking military targets across Iran including Bushehr, Chah Bahar, Jask, Konarak, Abu Musa, and Bandar Abbas to further degrade Iran’s ability to attack commercial shipping, continuing focus on Iranian territory.
US CENTCOM forces strike Iranian air defense systems, missile and drone capabilities
8 rises to 43%2%
US CENTCOM forces conducted strikes on Iranian air defense systems, coastal radar sites, missile and drone capabilities using fighter planes and naval vessels, continuing the US military campaign against Iran in 2026.
US launches second night of strikes on Iran using drones and fighter planes
8 surges to 68%27%
On July 12, 2026, CENTCOM forces struck Iranian air defense systems, missile and drone capabilities, and small boats using fighter planes and one-way attack drones. This marked the first combat use of maritime strike drones by the US, confirming ongoing strikes on Iranian territory.
US launches strikes on Iran using fighter planes, naval vessels, and drones
8 jumps to 41%6%
CENTCOM forces struck Iranian air defense systems, coastal radar sites, missile and drone capabilities, and small boats using US fighter planes, naval vessels, and one-way attack drones, marking a new phase of US strikes on Iran.
US launches multiple airstrikes on Iran following Iranian drone and missile attacks on Gulf US bases
In early July 2026, the US conducted extensive airstrikes on Iranian military sites after Iran launched missile and drone attacks on US military installations in Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, Oman, and Qatar, escalating the conflict across multiple countries' territories.
US uses one-way attack sea drones to strike Iranian port of Bandar Abbas
The United States employed one-way attack sea drones in combat for the first time to strike a submarine and ship-maintenance facility at Bandar Abbas, Iran, marking a new method of US military action on Iranian soil.
US conducts second night of strikes on Iranian air defense and missile sites
8 dips to 35%3%
CENTCOM forces struck Iranian air defense systems, coastal radar sites, missile and drone capabilities, and small boats using various platforms. Iranian state media reported casualties and damage, indicating sustained US military operations in Iran and ongoing regional tensions.
US conducts second night of strikes on Iran targeting air defenses and drones
9 jumps to 47%7%
On July 12, 2026, US Central Command announced strikes on Iranian air defense systems, coastal radar sites, missile and drone capabilities, and small boats, continuing the military campaign against Iran. This reinforced the ongoing US military presence and action in Iran.
U.S. uses one-way attack sea drones in combat for first time to strike Iranian port
The U.S. military employed one-way attack sea drones in combat for the first time, striking the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas, demonstrating a new method of aerial strike on Iranian soil.
US conducts second night of strikes on Iranian air defense and missile sites
On July 12, 2026, US Central Command announced strikes on Iranian air defense systems, coastal radar sites, missile and drone capabilities, and small boats, marking a sustained US military campaign against Iran.
US conducts second night of strikes on Iranian air defense and missile sites
11 drops to 34%5%
On July 12, 2026, US Central Command announced strikes on Iranian air defense systems, missile and drone capabilities, and coastal radar sites, continuing the military campaign against Iran. Iranian retaliatory strikes targeted Gulf countries, maintaining regional conflict dynamics.
US launches second night of strikes on Iran targeting air defense and missile sites
The US conducted a second consecutive night of strikes on Iranian military command centers, air defense, missile and drone launch sites, and coastal surveillance, using fighter planes, naval vessels, and one-way attack drones. This sustained campaign reinforced US military presence and action on Iranian soil.
US launches second night of strikes on Iran targeting air defenses and drones
10 dips to 14%2%
CENTCOM forces conducted strikes on Iranian air defense systems, coastal radar sites, missile and drone capabilities, and small boats, continuing the US aerial campaign on Iranian territory and escalating the conflict.
US launches second night of strikes on Iran targeting air defenses and missile capabilities
11 rises to 32%3%
CENTCOM forces struck Iranian air defense systems, coastal radar sites, missile and drone capabilities, and small boats using various platforms. This sustained US military action on Iranian territory reinforced the ongoing conflict and market expectations.
Iran attacks Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, and Qatar with missiles and drones after US strikes
On July 12, 2026, Iran launched missile and drone attacks on Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, and Qatar in retaliation for US strikes, expanding the conflict's geographic scope and involving multiple countries in the region.
U.S. launches massive five-hour precision airstrikes across Iran amid Strait of Hormuz crisis
9 rises to 31%4%
The U.S. military conducted a coordinated five-hour wave of airstrikes targeting Iranian military assets deep within Iran, including missile and drone sites, further escalating the conflict but maintaining strikes solely on Iranian territory.
Iran attacks Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, and Qatar with drones and missiles after US strikes
8 rises to 28%2%
In response to US strikes, Iran launched missile and drone attacks on US military and allied facilities in Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, and Qatar, marking a widening of the conflict to multiple countries' territories and increasing regional tensions.
U.S. uses one-way attack sea drones to strike Iranian port of Bandar Abbas
8 surges to 68%33%
On July 12, 2026, the U.S. employed one-way attack sea drones in combat for the first time, targeting a submarine and ship-maintenance facility at Bandar Abbas, Iran. This demonstrated an escalation in U.S. drone warfare capabilities and continued military action on Iranian soil.
U.S. launches second night of strikes on Iran targeting air defenses and maritime capabilities
U.S. Central Command reported strikes on Iranian air defense systems, coastal radar sites, missile and drone capabilities, and small boats using fighter planes, naval vessels, and attack drones. Despite Iranian retaliatory strikes on U.S. bases in the Gulf, no U.S. strikes on other countries were confirmed, keeping market focus on Iran.
Iran closes Strait of Hormuz and launches missile and drone attacks on Gulf countries in response to US strikes
8 jumps to 26%14%
Iran retaliated against US strikes by closing the Strait of Hormuz and launching missile and drone attacks on Gulf countries, escalating regional tensions and prompting further US military responses targeting Iranian military infrastructure.
US launches new wave of strikes against Iran targeting air defenses and missile capabilities
On July 12, 2026, the US conducted a new wave of precision strikes against Iranian air defense systems, missile and drone capabilities, and coastal radar sites, marking continued military engagement in Iran.
US launches second night of strikes on Iran targeting air defenses and drones
9 rises to 35%4%
On July 12, 2026, CENTCOM forces struck Iranian air defense systems, coastal radar sites, missile and drone capabilities, and small boats using various US military assets, continuing the aerial campaign against Iran.
US launches multiple strikes on Iran; Iran retaliates with missile and drone attacks on Gulf states
8 plunges to 1%22%
On July 12, 2026, the US conducted a major round of strikes on Iranian military targets, hitting about 140 sites. Iran responded with missile and drone attacks on US military bases in Kuwait, Jordan, Oman, Qatar, Bahrain, and the UAE, expanding the conflict's geographic scope but US strikes remained confined to Iran.
Iran retaliates with missile and drone attacks on Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, and Qatar
In response to US strikes, Iran launched missile and drone attacks on US military installations and allied countries including Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, and Qatar, expanding the conflict to multiple countries in the Gulf region.
U.S. launches second night of strikes on Iran including new drone types
8 jumps to 41%5%
On July 12, 2026, CENTCOM forces conducted strikes on Iranian air defense systems, missile and drone capabilities, and small boats using fighter planes, naval vessels, and one-way attack drones, marking the first combat use of maritime strike drones and expanding the scope of U.S. military actions in Iran.
US launches strikes on Iran for a second night targeting air defenses and missile capabilities
CENTCOM forces struck Iranian air defense systems, coastal radar sites, missile and drone capabilities, and small boats using fighter planes, naval vessels, and drones. This sustained US military action on Iranian soil and the surrounding region contributed to the ongoing conflict involving multiple countries.
US conducts multiple strikes on Iranian air defense and missile sites amid renewed Gulf tensions
10 dips to 13%1%
US Central Command conducted several strikes targeting Iranian air defense systems, missile and drone capabilities, and small boats near the Strait of Hormuz. These strikes were part of ongoing military operations in Iran and contributed to the continued escalation of the conflict.
US conducts first-ever sea drone strike on Iranian port of Bandar Abbas
8 jumps to 35%8%
The US military employed sea drones in combat for the first time to strike the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas, marking a new phase in drone warfare and US military operations on Iranian soil. This novel tactic increased market confidence in continued US strikes in Iran.
US launches second night of strikes on Iran targeting air defenses and missile capabilities
On July 12, 2026, CENTCOM forces conducted strikes on Iranian air defense systems, coastal radar sites, missile and drone capabilities, and small boats using fighter planes, naval vessels, and one-way attack drones, continuing the military campaign against Iran.
US conducts major overnight strikes on Iran; Iran fires missiles and drones at Gulf states
The US launched strikes on about 140 Iranian military sites overnight, escalating the conflict. Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks on Gulf states including Kuwait, Oman, Jordan, UAE, and Qatar, highlighting the regional scope of hostilities and potential US military responses.
US strikes destroy Iranian missile launchers and drones near Strait of Hormuz
8 jumps to 35%5%
On July 11-12, 2026, US strikes targeted and destroyed Iranian missile launchers and drones to degrade Iran's ability to threaten shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz. This continued US military campaign against Iran reinforced market expectations of multiple strikes in 2026.
US strikes Iranian missile launchers and drones to degrade regional threats
8 rises to 30%4%
On July 11–12, 2026, US military strikes targeted Iranian missile launchers and drones to reduce threats to shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, demonstrating US precision strike capabilities and escalating the ongoing conflict.
US launches strikes destroying Iranian missile launchers and drones near Strait of Hormuz
On July 11-12, 2026, US forces conducted precision strikes destroying Iranian missile launchers and drones to degrade Iran's ability to threaten shipping lanes, continuing the campaign of military action on Iranian soil.
US launches strikes on Iranian missile launchers and drones to protect Gulf shipping lanes
11 jumps to 39%9%
On July 11-12, 2026, US forces conducted strikes targeting Iranian missile launchers and drones to degrade Iran's ability to threaten shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz. This continued US military action on Iranian soil reinforced market views of sustained conflict with Iran.
US launches strikes on Iran targeting missile launchers and drones
12 jumps to 15%10%
US military strikes targeted Iranian missile launchers and drones to degrade Iran's ability to threaten shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, continuing the 2026 Iran war campaign and maintaining pressure on Iranian military capabilities.
US destroys Iranian missile launchers and drones in campaign to secure Strait of Hormuz
10 drops to 15%8%
US strikes targeted Iranian missile launchers and drones to degrade Iran’s ability to threaten shipping lanes, demonstrating ongoing US military operations on Iranian soil and maintaining pressure in the region.
US strikes destroy Iranian missile launchers and drones to degrade threat in Strait of Hormuz
Between July 11-12, 2026, US airstrikes targeted Iranian missile launchers and drones to reduce Iran's ability to threaten shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, demonstrating US military precision and escalating the regional conflict.
US launches multiple airstrikes targeting Iranian missile launchers and drones
US Central Command released footage of strikes destroying Iranian missile launchers and drones, part of an ongoing campaign to degrade Iran's military capabilities, confirming sustained US military action in Iran.
US strikes destroy Iranian missile launchers and drones to degrade threat to shipping lanes
9 dips to 15%3%
US military strikes targeted and destroyed Iranian missile launchers and drones in open areas to reduce Iran's ability to threaten shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, demonstrating ongoing US military operations on Iranian territory and maintaining pressure in the conflict.
US destroys Iranian missile launchers and drones to protect Gulf shipping lanes
11 rises to 29%3%
US strikes focused on degrading Iran’s missile and drone capabilities near the Strait of Hormuz, aiming to protect shipping lanes. This military action on Iranian soil continued the campaign and maintained pressure on Iran's regional influence.
US conducts strikes destroying Iranian missile launchers and drones near Strait of Hormuz
US military strikes targeted and destroyed Iranian missile launchers and drones in a campaign aimed at degrading Iran's threat to shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, demonstrating US precision strike capability and ongoing military engagement on Iranian territory.
US launches precision strikes on Iranian missile launchers and drones
8 jumps to 38%12%
On July 11-12, US forces targeted and destroyed Iranian missile launchers and drones to degrade Iran’s ability to threaten shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz. This demonstrated ongoing US military operations in Iran and contributed to market expectations of multiple countries involved in the conflict.
US strikes destroy Iranian missile launchers and drones in Gulf region
US military strikes targeted and destroyed Iranian missile launchers and drones in open areas focused on degrading Iran’s ability to threaten shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz. This continued US military action in Iranian territory and the Gulf region sustained the conflict's geographic scope.
U.S. strikes destroy Iranian missile launchers and drones in ongoing campaign
8 rises to 35%4%
U.S. military strikes targeted and destroyed Iranian missile launchers and drones to degrade Iran's ability to threaten shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, continuing U.S. military operations on Iranian territory and influencing market perceptions of the conflict's scope.
US airstrikes destroy Iranian missile launchers and drones
9 rises to 31%3%
Between July 11 and 12, 2026, US strikes targeted and destroyed Iranian missile launchers and drones to degrade Iran’s ability to threaten shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, demonstrating ongoing US military operations on Iranian soil.
U.S. launches strikes destroying Iranian missile launchers and drones
8 rises to 35%4%
On July 11–12, 2026, U.S. forces conducted precision strikes targeting Iranian missile launchers and drones to degrade Iran’s ability to threaten shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, continuing the military campaign on Iranian territory.
US airstrikes destroy Iranian missile launchers and drones in Gulf region
Between July 11 and 12, 2026, US forces conducted precision strikes targeting Iranian missile launchers and drones to degrade Iran’s ability to threaten shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, demonstrating ongoing US military action on Iranian soil and sustaining market pressure.
US launches strikes destroying Iranian missile launchers and drones in 2026 campaign
8 jumps to 41%6%
US military strikes targeted and destroyed Iranian missile launchers and drones in open areas as part of the ongoing 2026 Iran war campaign, further confirming US military action on Iranian soil during the year.
US airstrikes destroy Iranian missile launchers and drones in Gulf campaign
8 rises to 41%4%
On July 11-12, 2026, US strikes targeted and destroyed Iranian missile launchers and drones to degrade Iran's ability to threaten shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz. This demonstrated continued US military action on Iranian soil, reinforcing market pricing for strikes in Iran.
US missile strikes near Bushehr nuclear plant in Iran disrupt regional flights
US missile strikes targeted military assets near the Bushehr nuclear power plant in southern Iran, causing explosions and flight disruptions in neighboring countries, further intensifying the US-Iran conflict.
US destroys Iranian missile launchers and drones in precision strikes
US strikes focused on degrading Iran's missile and drone capabilities near the Strait of Hormuz, demonstrating precision targeting and escalating the ongoing military campaign against Iran.
U.S. airstrikes destroy Iranian missile launchers and drones in Gulf campaign
8 surges to 36%21%
Between July 11 and 12, 2026, U.S. strikes targeted Iranian missile launchers and drones to degrade Iran's ability to threaten shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, demonstrating continued U.S. military operations on Iranian territory and maintaining pressure in the region.
US launches ninth consecutive night of airstrikes targeting Iranian missile and drone sites
The US conducted a ninth straight night of airstrikes on Iranian military sites including missile launchers and drone storage, aiming to degrade Iran's military capabilities and maintain pressure in the ongoing conflict.
US launches airstrikes on Iranian missile launchers and drones
9 jumps to 40%10%
On July 11-12, 2026, US forces conducted airstrikes targeting Iranian missile launchers and drones to degrade Iran's ability to threaten shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz. This sustained US military action in Iran maintained market expectations for multiple strikes in the region.
U.S. strikes destroy Iranian missile launchers and drones to degrade threat in Strait of Hormuz
U.S. military strikes targeted and destroyed Iranian missile launchers and drones to reduce threats to shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, continuing the air campaign in Iran.
US strikes Iranian missile launchers and drones to degrade threat to shipping lanes
9 jumps to 34%7%
On July 11-12, 2026, US forces targeted Iranian missile launchers and drones to reduce Iran's ability to threaten shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, demonstrating ongoing US military operations on Iranian soil and escalating regional conflict.
US strikes approximately 90 military targets along Iran’s coastline
9 rises to 32%2%
On July 9, 2026, US Central Command reported strikes on about 90 military targets including missile and drone storage and logistics sites along Iran’s coast. This continued military pressure in Iran and surrounding regions influenced market expectations for the number of countries targeted.
US intensifies strikes on Iran’s coast along Strait of Hormuz
8 dips to 1%3%
On July 9, 2026, US forces hit approximately 90 targets mostly along Iran’s coastline near the Strait of Hormuz, stepping up bombing campaigns after President Trump declared the truce agreement over. Iran retaliated by firing missiles and drones at US military sites in partner countries, but US strikes remained focused on Iranian territory.
US launches extensive strikes on Iranian military targets; Iran retaliates against Gulf allies
9 jumps to 34%6%
The US struck approximately 90 military targets in Iran, including missile and drone storage and logistics sites. Iran responded with missile and drone attacks on US-allied countries including Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan, indicating the conflict's regional expansion and potential for US strikes in these countries.
U.S. strikes approximately 90 Iranian military targets along the coast
11 plunges to 7%40%
U.S. Central Command announced strikes on about 90 Iranian military targets including missile and drone storage and logistics sites along Iran’s coastline, marking a significant escalation of U.S. military action on Iranian soil.
US resumes strikes on Iran targeting missile and drone sites
8 rises to 26%3%
On July 8, 2026, the US military struck approximately 90 Iranian military targets including air defense systems, drone and missile storage sites, and logistics infrastructure along Iran’s coastline to degrade Iran’s ability to attack commercial shipping.
Iran claims drone strikes on US-linked military sites in Bahrain and Kuwait
Iran claimed retaliatory drone and missile strikes against US-linked military facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait following US strikes on Iranian territory. This expanded the conflict to multiple Gulf states, increasing the number of countries where US military actions were involved either directly or indirectly.
Iran targets US military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain in response to US strikes
Iran's IRGC launched drone and missile attacks on US military infrastructure in Kuwait and Bahrain, demonstrating ongoing retaliatory strikes on these countries' territories and confirming their involvement in the conflict with the US.
U.S. launches extensive strikes on approximately 90 Iranian military targets
8 drops to 30%5%
American forces struck around 90 Iranian military targets including air defense systems, drone and missile storage sites, and logistics infrastructure along the coast. Iran responded with drone and missile attacks on U.S. bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, further escalating tensions.
US launches extensive strikes on around 90 Iranian military targets
The US conducted a large-scale airstrike campaign targeting approximately 90 Iranian military sites including air defense systems and logistics infrastructure, further intensifying military actions on Iranian soil and reinforcing the market's view of US strikes in Iran.
U.S. completes strikes on approximately 90 Iranian military targets
9 rises to 14%1%
The U.S. military struck around 90 Iranian military targets including air defense systems, drone and missile storage sites, and logistics infrastructure to degrade Iran's ability to attack commercial shipping. Iran responded with missile and drone attacks on U.S. bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, but no U.S. strikes on other countries were reported, reinforcing market expectations of limited country count.
US conducts additional strikes on Iran amid escalating tensions
9 rises to 35%3%
On July 8, 2026, US Central Command announced additional strikes against Iran to degrade its ability to threaten freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian forces responded with missile and drone attacks on US bases in Bahrain and Kuwait, expanding the conflict to multiple countries in the region and impacting market pricing.
U.S. launches extensive airstrikes on Iranian military targets along Strait of Hormuz
8 dips to 20%1%
The U.S. military struck around 90 Iranian military targets including air defense systems, drone and missile storage sites, and logistics infrastructure. This large-scale strike further confirmed the U.S. focus on Iranian territory only, with no reported strikes on other countries' soil.
US launches new airstrikes on Iran; Iran retaliates against Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and Jordan
8 rises to 35%2%
The US conducted another round of airstrikes targeting Iranian military infrastructure, including air defense and missile sites. Iran responded by launching missile and drone attacks on US military bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and Jordan, further escalating the conflict and threatening the fragile ceasefire.
US Central Command launches massive airstrikes on over 80 Iranian targets along southern coast
10 rises to 14%1%
In response to Iranian attacks on commercial vessels, US forces launched extensive airstrikes on Iranian military infrastructure along the southern coast, including radar, missile sites, and naval assets. This large-scale operation reaffirmed US military action on Iranian soil and escalated the conflict.
US hits over 80 Iranian military targets and reimposes oil sanctions
The US military struck more than 80 Iranian military targets in retaliation for attacks on commercial ships, with no reports of strikes on other countries, reinforcing the market's view of limited geographic scope of US strikes.
US launches strikes on over 80 Iranian targets in southern Iran
US Central Command reported strikes on more than 80 Iranian targets with precision munitions, aiming to degrade Iran's military capabilities and respond to Iranian attacks on commercial vessels, further intensifying US military actions on Iranian soil.
U.S. Central Command conducts extensive retaliatory strikes on over 80 Iranian targets
9 rises to 28%3%
In response to Iranian attacks on commercial vessels, U.S. forces launched airstrikes targeting Iranian coastal radar, missile sites, and IRGC fast-attack craft along Iran's southern coastline and islands, reaffirming that U.S. strikes remained confined to Iranian soil.
US Central Command conducts extensive airstrikes on over 80 Iranian military targets
8 jumps to 34%8%
On July 7-8, 2026, US CENTCOM launched two waves of heavy airstrikes against more than 80 targets along Iran's southern coastline, including missile batteries, radar arrays, and IRGC naval craft. This was a direct retaliation for Iranian attacks on commercial vessels and further confirmed Iran as the sole country targeted by US strikes in 2026.
US Unleashes Massive Wave of Strikes on 80 Targets in Iran
9 rises to 34%2%
The US military launched a major offensive striking over 80 targets along the Iranian coastline in response to attacks on commercial shipping, effectively ending the short-lived ceasefire.
CENTCOM launches retaliatory strikes on over 80 Iranian targets in Strait of Hormuz region
10 jumps to 29%13%
In response to Iranian attacks on commercial vessels, U.S. Central Command conducted extensive airstrikes targeting Iranian air defense, command networks, coastal radar, and IRGC naval boats along the Iranian coastline and islands, marking a major escalation and confirming multiple strikes on Iranian territory.
U.S. launches heavy airstrikes on over 80 Iranian targets along southern coastline
9 jumps to 33%5%
CENTCOM executed two waves of airstrikes targeting Iranian military infrastructure including coastal radar, missile batteries, and IRGC fast-attack craft near the Strait of Hormuz. This confirmed Iran as a second country targeted by U.S. strikes in 2026, reinforcing market expectations for a low single-digit count of countries struck.
US launches new strikes on Iran after reinstating oil sanctions over shipping attacks
9 rises to 35%3%
On July 7, 2026, the US military launched a new wave of strikes against Iran targeting air defense systems, coastal surveillance, surface-to-air missiles, and drone launch sites following attacks on commercial shipping. This further intensified the conflict and influenced market expectations for US military actions in the region.
Trump declares US-Iran Islamabad MOU peace deal over after Persian Gulf airstrikes
10 rises to 32%3%
Following the U.S. airstrikes on Iranian military targets, President Trump announced the collapse of the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding with Iran, signaling the end of diplomatic efforts and a return to open conflict, reinforcing market expectations of ongoing U.S. military actions in Iran.
U.S. launches strikes on over 80 targets in southern Iran amid escalating conflict
8 jumps to 14%6%
CENTCOM reported precision strikes on more than 80 targets in southern Iran, including air defense and missile sites, in response to Iranian attacks on commercial vessels, further intensifying U.S. military action in Iran.
CENTCOM Launches Massive Wave of Strikes Against 80 Iranian Targets
8 rises to 35%1%
U.S. Central Command executed heavy airstrikes against over 80 Iranian military targets along the coastline in response to attacks on commercial vessels.
US Central Command launches retaliatory strikes on over 80 Iranian targets along southern coast
8 surges to 35%26%
In response to attacks on commercial vessels, US forces struck numerous Iranian military targets along the southern coast and islands, confirming extensive US military action on Iranian soil and reinforcing the focus on Iran as the primary country targeted.
US launches over 80 strikes on Iranian targets, Iran vows crushing response
8 jumps to 33%7%
The US military conducted a large-scale strike hitting over 80 targets in southern Iran, including air defense systems and missile launch sites, in retaliation for attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran pledged a crushing response and subsequently launched missile and drone attacks on US military bases in Bahrain and Kuwait.
U.S. Central Command launches heavy airstrikes on Iranian military targets
10 dips to 11%2%
CENTCOM executed two waves of airstrikes against over 80 Iranian military targets along the southern coastline, including missile sites and naval assets, confirming extensive U.S. military action on Iranian soil in 2026. This significantly influenced market pricing toward fewer countries targeted, as Iran was the primary focus.
CENTCOM launches heavy airstrikes on Iranian coastal military targets
10 jumps to 16%5%
U.S. Central Command executed two waves of airstrikes against over 80 Iranian military targets along the southern coastline, including radar arrays, missile batteries, and IRGC fast-attack craft, significantly escalating U.S. military action on Iranian soil.
US hits over 80 Iranian targets and reimposes oil sanctions amid escalating conflict
11 jumps to 26%12%
The US launched a series of powerful strikes against Iran, targeting military sites, and reimposed sanctions on Iranian oil sales. Iran responded with missile and drone attacks on US military sites in Bahrain and Kuwait, further involving these countries in the conflict.
Iranian Revolutionary Guard launches missile and drone strikes on US military sites in Gulf
8 jumps to 35%5%
The IRGC launched a coordinated barrage of ballistic missiles and drones targeting US military installations in Kuwait and Bahrain, breaching regional air defenses and escalating the conflict. This event highlighted US military involvement in multiple countries' territories, influencing market expectations.
Iran launches missile and drone strikes on US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain
11 jumps to 12%6%
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched coordinated missile and drone strikes targeting US military sites in Kuwait and Bahrain in retaliation for US strikes on Iranian positions. This expanded the conflict zone to include these Gulf countries as active strike locations.
Iran retaliates with missile and drone strikes on US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain
8 dips to 35%4%
Following US strikes in Iran, Iran launched missile and drone attacks targeting US military sites in Kuwait and Bahrain, escalating regional tensions but not increasing the count of countries struck by US.
Iran launches joint missile and drone strikes on US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain
Iran retaliated with coordinated missile and drone attacks on US military sites in Kuwait and Bahrain on June 28, expanding the conflict's geographic scope and raising the possibility of US strikes on additional countries.
Iranian missile and drone strikes target US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain
9 rises to 30%4%
Following US strikes on Iran, Iran launched missile and drone attacks targeting US military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. US forces responded with strikes on Iranian targets, confirming US military action in Kuwait and Bahrain territories in 2026.
Iran launches missile and drone strikes on US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain
10 rises to 3%1%
Iran's IRGC conducted coordinated missile and drone attacks on US military sites in Kuwait and Bahrain, confirming US military presence and engagement in these countries, thus increasing the count of countries where US military action is relevant.
US Navy and Air Force strike 10 Iranian military targets near Strait of Hormuz
In a coordinated operation, US Navy and Air Force fighter jets conducted precision strikes on multiple Iranian military targets near the Strait of Hormuz, marking a transition from maritime security operations to direct kinetic action against Iran on its territory.
U.S. Navy and Air Force strike 10 Iranian military targets after drone attack
8 rises to 27%4%
Following a second Iranian drone attack on a Panama-flagged oil tanker, U.S. Navy and Air Force fighter jets conducted coordinated precision strikes on multiple Iranian military targets near the Strait of Hormuz. This further confirmed U.S. military action limited to Iran, reinforcing market confidence in the outcome of 8 countries.
Iran launches missile and drone strikes on US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain
9 drops to 30%6%
On June 28, 2026, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed coordinated missile and drone strikes on eight US military sites in Kuwait and Bahrain, escalating the conflict and involving multiple countries hosting US forces. This event contributed to market expectations of strikes in at least nine countries.
Iranian missile and drone strike targets US military sites in Kuwait and Bahrain
9 jumps to 35%5%
On June 28, 2026, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched retaliatory missile and drone attacks on US military sites in Kuwait and Bahrain, escalating regional conflict and prompting US military responses on these countries' soil, thus increasing the count of countries where US military strikes occur.
Iran retaliates with missile and drone strikes on US military sites in Kuwait and Bahrain
9 drops to 30%14%
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched missile and drone attacks targeting US military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, escalating regional conflict and confirming US military presence and action in these countries' territories.
Iran retaliates with missile and drone strikes on US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain
10 plunges to 15%22%
On June 28, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched missile and drone attacks targeting US military sites in Kuwait and Bahrain, expanding the conflict to additional countries and increasing regional instability.
Iran retaliates with missile and drone attacks on US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain
Following US strikes on Iran, Iran launched ballistic missiles and drones targeting US military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, causing injuries and damage. This expanded the conflict to additional countries hosting US forces, increasing the count of countries involved in US military actions.
Iran retaliates with missile and drone strikes on US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain
11 jumps to 35%7%
Following US strikes on Iran, Iran launched missile and drone attacks on US military facilities in Kuwait and Bahrain, escalating the conflict to additional countries and raising market expectations for the number of countries involved in US military actions.
U.S. strikes multiple Iranian military targets in response to drone attack on cargo ship
10 plunges to 11%36%
In response to an Iranian drone attack on a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. Central Command launched strikes on Iranian military surveillance infrastructure and drone storage facilities, escalating military actions on Iranian soil.
US launches additional strikes on Iranian military targets around Strait of Hormuz
8 dips to 35%4%
Following the June 26 strikes, the US conducted further strikes on Iranian missile and drone storage and radar sites, escalating the conflict and confirming ongoing US military operations on Iranian territory in 2026.
US Central Command confirms strikes on Iranian military infrastructure after tanker attack
8 jumps to 24%6%
Following an Iranian drone attack on a Panama-flagged merchant vessel, US Central Command announced strikes on Iranian surveillance infrastructure, communication systems, and drone storage facilities, further intensifying the conflict.
Iran retaliates with drone and missile strikes on US bases in Bahrain and Kuwait
8 dips to 23%3%
In response to US strikes, Iran launched drone and ballistic missile attacks targeting US military bases in Bahrain and Kuwait, increasing regional tensions but no US strikes on these countries were reported.
U.S. launches additional strikes on Iranian military targets around Strait of Hormuz
9 jumps to 35%5%
Following continued Iranian aggression, the U.S. conducted further airstrikes targeting Iranian military surveillance infrastructure, communication systems, and drone storage facilities. This confirmed ongoing U.S. military operations solely on Iranian soil.
US Central Command announces strikes on Iranian military infrastructure following tanker attack
Following an Iranian drone attack on a Panama-flagged merchant vessel, US Central Command announced strikes on Iranian surveillance, communication, and drone storage facilities on June 27, 2026, further confirming US military operations on Iranian territory.
U.S. conducts additional strikes on Iranian sites amid escalating regional tensions
Following initial strikes, the U.S. launched further attacks on Iranian missile and drone storage sites, prompting Iranian missile and drone retaliations against U.S. facilities in Kuwait and Bahrain, increasing the risk of wider conflict.
Iran retaliates with missile and drone strikes on US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain
In response to US strikes on Iran, Iranian forces launched missile and drone attacks on US military facilities in Kuwait and Bahrain on June 27, 2026, escalating the conflict to multiple countries' soil and affecting market expectations of US military engagements.
Iran retaliates with missile and drone strikes on US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain
Following US strikes on Iran, Iran launched missile and drone attacks on US military facilities in Kuwait and Bahrain, causing injuries and further escalating the conflict, but these were Iranian-initiated strikes, not US actions on other countries' soil.
US military conducts strikes on Iranian targets around Strait of Hormuz
On June 27, 2026, US aircraft struck Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites in response to Iranian aggression, further confirming ongoing US military operations on Iranian soil.
US conducts additional strikes on Iranian military targets near Strait of Hormuz
Following continued Iranian aggression, the US launched further strikes on Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites, maintaining the focus on Iranian territory only.
US conducts second night of strikes on Iran after another drone attack on commercial vessel
8 jumps to 15%10%
Following a second Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, the US launched additional airstrikes on Iranian military targets, further escalating the conflict in Iran.
US launches additional strikes on Iranian military targets; Iran retaliates in Kuwait and Bahrain
10 rises to 15%3%
Following US strikes on Iranian military sites, Iran launched missile and drone attacks on US military facilities in Kuwait and Bahrain, expanding the conflict to these countries and increasing the count of countries where US military action occurred.
US launches strikes on Iranian missile and drone sites near Strait of Hormuz
The US conducted airstrikes targeting Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites in retaliation for an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel, escalating military actions on Iranian soil.
US and Iran announce retaliatory strikes in Iran, Kuwait, and Bahrain
8 drops to 6%5%
Following US strikes on Iranian military sites, Iran launched missile and drone attacks on US military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, causing injuries and damage. Despite these attacks on US forces in other countries, US retaliatory strikes remained limited to Iranian territory, keeping the number of countries struck by the US unchanged.
U.S. conducts additional strikes on Iranian military targets around Strait of Hormuz
9 rises to 30%2%
Following the previous day's strikes, the U.S. launched further attacks on Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites. Iran retaliated with missile and drone strikes on U.S. bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, but no U.S. strikes on these countries were reported, maintaining market focus on Iran alone.
US launches additional strikes on Iranian targets amid rising regional tensions
9 jumps to 34%8%
Following the June 26 strikes, the US conducted further airstrikes on Iranian military infrastructure on June 27, 2026, in direct response to continued Iranian aggression, increasing the number of countries involved in the conflict due to Iranian retaliatory strikes on US facilities in Kuwait and Bahrain.
US conducts further strikes on Iranian military targets around Strait of Hormuz
10 jumps to 12%10%
Following continued Iranian aggression, the US launched additional strikes on Iranian missile and drone storage sites and coastal radar installations, escalating military actions on Iranian soil and increasing regional tensions.
U.S. launches additional strikes on Iranian military targets around Strait of Hormuz
8 dips to 35%3%
The U.S. military conducted further strikes on Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites. Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks on U.S. bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, escalating the conflict and threatening diplomatic processes.
US launches more strikes on Iranian sites around Strait of Hormuz
On June 27, 2026, the US military conducted additional strikes on Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites around the Strait of Hormuz, escalating the conflict further and reinforcing US military presence in the region.
Iran retaliates with missile and drone strikes on US bases in Bahrain and Kuwait
Following US strikes on Iran, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched missile and drone attacks on US military facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait, expanding the conflict to these countries' territories and increasing the count of countries involved in US military actions.
US Launches Retaliatory Airstrikes Against Iranian Coastal Targets
9 jumps to 29%5%
Following an attack on a commercial cargo ship, the US military launched targeted airstrikes on missile and drone facilities in southern Iran and Qeshm Island.
U.S. launches strikes on Iranian missile and drone sites near Strait of Hormuz
9 surges to 28%17%
In retaliation for an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel, the U.S. conducted airstrikes against missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites in Iran. This significant military action reinforced market confidence that U.S. strikes would be limited to Iran.
US strikes Iranian missile and drone storage locations after cargo ship attack
8 dips to 35%3%
In response to an Iranian drone attack on a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz, the US launched strikes on Iranian missile and drone storage sites, continuing military operations on Iranian soil.
US conducts strikes on Iranian missile and drone sites near Strait of Hormuz
9 rises to 26%3%
On June 26, 2026, US fighter jets struck Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites near the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel. This continued US military action on Iranian soil and maritime areas.
US conducts military strikes on Iranian missile and drone sites in response to drone attack
9 jumps to 36%6%
On June 26, 2026, the US military launched airstrikes against Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites along the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel. This action further confirmed ongoing US military operations on Iranian soil in 2026.
U.S. conducts airstrikes on Iranian missile, drone, and radar sites in response to drone attack on commercial ship
On June 26, 2026, U.S. Central Command launched airstrikes against Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites along the Strait of Hormuz and Qeshm Island. This was a direct retaliation for an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel, marking a significant escalation in U.S.-Iran hostilities.
US launches airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone sites after drone attack on commercial vessel
10 jumps to 13%6%
In retaliation for an Iranian drone strike on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, US Central Command launched airstrikes on Iranian missile storage, drone facilities, and coastal radar sites. This marked a significant escalation and reaffirmed US military action on Iranian soil.
US strikes Iranian missile, drone, and radar sites in response to drone attack on cargo ship
8 jumps to 30%7%
On June 26, 2026, the US conducted airstrikes against Iranian missile, drone storage, and radar sites near the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel, reaffirming US focus on Iranian territory in military actions.
U.S. launches strikes on Iranian missile and drone sites in retaliation for drone attack on commercial ship
8 jumps to 26%10%
The U.S. conducted airstrikes against Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites following an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, further intensifying the conflict.
U.S. military strikes Iranian missile and drone facilities after drone attack on commercial ship
10 jumps to 13%7%
Following an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. launched retaliatory airstrikes on Iranian missile storage, drone sites, and coastal radar installations, reinforcing the focus on Iranian territory for U.S. strikes in 2026.
U.S. airstrikes target Iranian missile and drone sites after attack on commercial ship
10 rises to 11%4%
Following an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. launched retaliatory airstrikes on Iranian missile storage, drone facilities, and coastal radar installations along the Iranian coast, reinforcing the focus on Iranian territory and escalating conflict.
US Central Command conducts strikes on Iranian missile and drone sites in Strait of Hormuz
11 dips to 4%1%
On June 26, 2026, US Central Command launched military strikes against Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites in response to Iranian attacks on commercial shipping. This continued US military action on Iranian soil and surrounding waters.
U.S. launches retaliatory airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone sites after attack on commercial ship
9 jumps to 11%9%
Following an Iranian drone attack on a Singapore-flagged commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. conducted targeted airstrikes on Iranian military installations along the southern coast and Qeshm Island, escalating the conflict but maintaining strikes solely on Iranian territory.
U.S. conducts airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone sites in response to drone attack on commercial ship
8 surges to 68%43%
In late June, the U.S. launched airstrikes against Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites following an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz. This military action reinforced ongoing U.S. operations on Iranian territory and heightened regional tensions.
US conducts missile and drone strikes on Iranian missile, drone, and radar sites
9 jumps to 34%9%
In retaliation for an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, US Central Command launched airstrikes against Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites on June 26, 2026. This military action reaffirmed US engagement solely against Iran in 2026.
US conducts military strikes against Iranian missile, drone, and radar sites
In response to an Iranian drone attack on a commercial ship in the Strait of Hormuz, US Central Command launched strikes on Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites. This retaliatory action was widely reported and confirmed, reinforcing the US military's active engagement on Iranian soil in 2026.
US launches precision airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone sites after drone attack on cargo ship
8 jumps to 14%9%
Following an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, the US conducted targeted airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone facilities near the Strait and on Qeshm Island, reaffirming US military action on Iranian soil and escalating the conflict.
US military strikes Iranian missile, drone, and radar sites in retaliation for drone attack on commercial ship
8 jumps to 39%9%
Following an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, the US conducted targeted strikes on Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites, escalating the conflict but remaining focused on Iranian territory.
US launches retaliatory strikes on Iranian targets after drone attack on commercial ship
9 jumps to 36%12%
On June 26, 2026, the US launched strikes against Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites in response to an Iranian drone attack on a Singapore-flagged cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz. This marked a significant escalation and reaffirmed US military action on Iranian soil.
US launches retaliatory airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone sites after drone attack on cargo ship
9 jumps to 36%8%
In response to an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz on June 25, 2026, the US conducted airstrikes on Iranian missile, drone storage, and radar sites near the Strait and on Qeshm Island, marking the latest US military action on Iranian soil in 2026.
US conducts airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone sites near Strait of Hormuz
8 rises to 30%4%
On June 26, 2026, the US launched airstrikes targeting Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites in response to an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel, continuing military action on Iranian soil and sustaining market expectations.
U.S. military launches airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone sites after drone attack on cargo ship
8 surges to 28%23%
In retaliation for an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. forces struck Iranian missile storage, drone facilities, and coastal radar sites, escalating the conflict and undermining a fragile ceasefire.
US launches strikes on Iranian missile and drone sites in retaliation for drone attack
8 surges to 68%42%
The US conducted strikes against Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites in response to an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel, continuing the pattern of US military action on Iranian territory.
US launches airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone sites in Strait of Hormuz
8 rises to 11%4%
In retaliation for an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel, US Central Command conducted airstrikes against Iranian missile, drone storage locations, and coastal radar sites on June 26, 2026, confirming continued US military action confined to Iran and reinforcing the market's low country count.
US conducts airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone sites in response to drone attack on commercial ship
11 drops to 6%6%
On June 26, 2026, the US launched airstrikes against Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites in retaliation for an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, escalating military actions in Iran and surrounding countries.
US conducts retaliatory airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone sites along Strait of Hormuz
8 surges to 32%17%
In response to an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, US Central Command launched airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites, demonstrating ongoing US military action on Iranian soil.
US airstrikes target Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites
US Central Command conducted airstrikes against Iranian military sites along the Strait of Hormuz and Qeshm Island in retaliation for Iranian drone attacks on commercial vessels, demonstrating sustained US military action on Iranian territory.
U.S. military launches airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone facilities after drone attack on commercial ship
9 jumps to 23%10%
Following an Iranian drone attack on a Singapore-flagged commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. forces conducted retaliatory airstrikes on four Iranian military installations along the southern coast and Qeshm Island, escalating military conflict and signaling direct U.S. action on Iranian soil.
U.S. retaliates with airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone sites after commercial ship attack
9 rises to 15%3%
Following an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. forces struck multiple Iranian missile storage, drone facilities, and coastal radar sites. This further confirmed ongoing U.S. strikes on Iranian soil, solidifying Iran's status as a primary target country in 2026.
US conducts air strikes on Iranian missile and drone sites in response to drone attack
8 jumps to 38%12%
The US launched air strikes against Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites in retaliation for an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz. This confirmed continued US military strikes on Iranian soil in 2026.
US conducts strikes on Iranian missile and drone sites in response to drone attack on commercial ship
11 jumps to 6%5%
On June 26, 2026, US Central Command launched strikes against Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites as retaliation for an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, escalating tensions in the region.
U.S. conducts airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone sites in retaliation for drone attack on commercial ship
In response to an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. launched airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone storage locations, intensifying the conflict.
US conducts missile and drone strikes on Iranian military sites near Strait of Hormuz
In response to Iranian drone attacks on commercial shipping, the US launched missile and drone strikes on Iranian missile storage, drone sites, and coastal radar installations near the Strait of Hormuz, escalating the conflict in the region.
US launches strikes on Iranian missile and drone storage locations in retaliation for drone attack on commercial vessel
The US Central Command conducted strikes on Iranian missile and drone storage sites and coastal radar locations following an Iranian drone attack on a Panama-flagged merchant vessel. This marked a significant escalation in US military action on Iranian territory.
US conducts retaliatory strikes on Iranian missile and drone sites
8 jumps to 38%12%
On June 26, 2026, the US launched airstrikes against Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites in response to Iranian drone attacks on commercial vessels. This confirmed ongoing US strikes on Iranian soil, sustaining market confidence in multiple strikes in Iran.
US Launches Retaliatory Airstrikes on Iranian Coastal Sites After Tanker Attack
8 jumps to 38%9%
The U.S. military launched precision airstrikes against four Iranian drone, missile, and radar installations following a UAV attack on the container ship M/V Ever Lovely.
US strikes Iranian missile and drone sites in retaliation for commercial ship attack
10 surges to 27%26%
The US launched strikes on Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites following an Iranian drone attack on a commercial ship, continuing the pattern of US military action on Iranian territory in 2026.
US strikes Iranian missile and drone sites in Strait of Hormuz
11 surges to 27%15%
The US launched strikes against Iranian missile and drone storage locations along the Strait of Hormuz as retaliation for an Iranian drone attack on a commercial ship, signaling continued US military engagement in the region.
US conducts strikes on Iranian missile and drone sites in response to drone attack on commercial vessel
8 jumps to 30%8%
On June 26, 2026, the US launched air strikes against Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites in retaliation for an Iranian drone attack on a commercial ship in the Strait of Hormuz. This continued US military action on Iranian soil reinforced the ongoing conflict and market expectations.
US conducts airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone sites in response to drone attack on commercial ship
9 rises to 15%3%
In retaliation for an Iranian drone attack on a Panama-flagged commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, US Central Command launched airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites, reaffirming US military action on Iranian soil and sustaining conflict intensity.
US launches strikes on Iranian missile and drone sites near Strait of Hormuz
10 surges to 16%15%
In retaliation for an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel, the US launched air strikes on Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites near the Strait of Hormuz, continuing US military operations on Iranian territory.
US conducts airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone sites in response to drone attack on commercial ship
On June 26, 2026, the US launched strikes against Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites along the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel, reaffirming US military action on Iranian soil and escalating tensions in the region.
US conducts strikes on Iranian missile and drone sites near Strait of Hormuz
10 surges to 28%16%
On June 26, 2026, US fighter jets struck Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites near the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel. This marked a renewed US military action on Iranian soil, influencing market perceptions of ongoing conflict scope.
US conducts precision airstrikes against ISIS camp in Libya
9 rises to 3%2%
On June 25, 2026, US Africa Command conducted six precision airstrikes against an Islamic State camp in Libya, killing 17 militants. The strikes were coordinated with Libya's Government of National Accord and targeted ISIS infrastructure used for movement, weapons stockpiling, and planning attacks.
US Africa Command conducts airstrikes targeting al-Shabaab in Somalia
On June 19, 2026, US Africa Command conducted airstrikes targeting al-Shabaab militants in Somalia in coordination with the Somali government. This continued the US campaign against Islamist militants in East Africa.
US completes new strikes on Iranian surveillance and air defense sites
8 jumps to 38%8%
Following Iran's downing of a US Apache helicopter, the US launched precision strikes on Iranian military surveillance and air defense sites, escalating military action on Iranian territory.
U.S. launches strikes on Iranian air defenses near Strait of Hormuz
8 plunges to 5%42%
Following the downing of a U.S. attack helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. military targeted Iranian air defenses and radar sites. Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks on U.S. bases in Jordan, Kuwait, and Bahrain, but no U.S. strikes on these countries' soil were reported, maintaining Iran as the only strike location.
US military launches strikes against multiple targets in Iran
On June 9-10, 2026, the US military conducted strikes against Iranian military surveillance, communication, and air defense sites in response to Iranian aggression, continuing the campaign of airstrikes on Iranian soil.
US launches strikes against multiple targets in Iran amid rising tensions
9 jumps to 10%6%
The US military launched strikes against multiple Iranian targets following Iranian missile and drone attacks on US bases in Jordan. The strikes were confined to Iranian soil, with no reports of US strikes on other countries, supporting the market's view of a single-country military action.
US launches airstrikes on Iran; Iran retaliates with strikes on Gulf states and Jordan
10 jumps to 27%13%
On June 8, 2026, the US launched airstrikes on Iranian military targets, prompting Iran to retaliate with missile and drone attacks on US military bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan, expanding the conflict to multiple countries' territories.
U.S. military shoots down Iranian drones and ballistic missiles targeting Gulf allies
The U.S. intercepted Iranian drones and missiles launched toward Gulf allies, followed by strikes on Iranian coastal radar sites, escalating military actions in the Gulf region.
U.S. military shoots down Iranian drones and ballistic missiles targeting Gulf allies
The U.S. intercepted Iranian drones and ballistic missiles launched toward Gulf allies and responded by striking Iranian coastal radar sites, escalating military actions in the Gulf region and confirming ongoing U.S. strikes on Iranian soil.
US strikes Iranian targets on Qeshm Island; Kuwait intercepts missile and drone attacks
9 surges to 26%17%
US forces conducted strikes on Iranian military facilities on Qeshm Island, while Kuwait reported intercepting Iranian missile and drone attacks, indicating US military action in Iran and defensive engagements in Kuwait, expanding the number of countries involved.
US Forces Intercept Iranian Missiles and Strike Ground Control Station on Qeshm Island
9 jumps to 26%11%
U.S. and partner forces intercepted multiple Iranian missile and drone attacks across the Gulf region and conducted a retaliatory strike on Qeshm Island.
US conducts self-defense strikes on Iranian targets after missile and drone attacks
12 dips to 3%2%
On June 3, 2026, the US military carried out strikes against Iranian military facilities on Qeshm Island in response to Iranian missile and drone attacks targeting US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, and other Gulf countries. This escalation reinforced the US military presence and strike activity in multiple countries in the region.
US strikes Iranian drone command sites near Strait of Hormuz
CENTCOM reported US fighter aircraft eliminated Iranian air defenses and drone command sites near the Strait of Hormuz, continuing the pattern of US strikes exclusively on Iranian soil.
U.S. conducts airstrikes on Iranian drone control sites in southern Iran
8 plunges to 5%42%
The U.S. military launched airstrikes targeting Iranian drone ground-control stations and missile launch sites in southern Iran, responding to aggressive Iranian actions including the downing of a U.S. drone. This marked a significant escalation in U.S. military action on Iranian soil, reinforcing the market's focus on Iran as the sole target country.
US bombs Iranian military sites and downs missiles fired at troops in Kuwait
The US bombed radar and drone sites in Iran after Tehran shot down an American drone. Iran retaliated with missile attacks on US troops in Kuwait, which were intercepted. This event confirmed ongoing US strikes on Iranian soil only.
U.S. conducts airstrikes on southern Iran targeting drone control stations
9 drops to 34%13%
The U.S. launched airstrikes on Iranian military targets in southern Iran, including a drone ground-control station, in response to aggressive Iranian actions such as shooting down an American drone. This marked an escalation in U.S. military operations on Iranian soil, influencing market expectations of the number of countries struck.
US conducts self-defense strikes on Iranian radar and drone sites after MQ-1 drone shootdown
8 jumps to 17%12%
In response to the shootdown of a US MQ-1 drone, the US launched strikes on Iranian radar and drone command sites on Qeshm Island and Goruk, confirming US military action on Iranian soil and escalating the conflict.
US strikes Iranian radar and drone sites after MQ-1 drone shootdown; Kuwait intercepts missiles
10 rises to 6%3%
Following the shootdown of a US MQ-1 drone, the US launched strikes on Iranian radar and drone command sites in Iran. Concurrently, Kuwait intercepted missiles and drones launched by Iran, indicating active conflict involving US strikes and Iranian retaliations in multiple countries.
US bombs Iranian radar and drone control sites after drone downing
10 jumps to 16%9%
The US conducted strikes on Iranian radar and drone control sites following Iran's downing of an American MQ-1 Predator drone, demonstrating ongoing US military action on Iranian soil and escalating tensions in the region.
U.S. strikes Iranian radar sites after MQ-1 Predator drone shot down
8 rises to 19%3%
Following the downing of a U.S. MQ-1 Predator drone by Iranian forces, the U.S. conducted missile strikes on Iranian radar sites on May 31, 2026. This military action on Iranian territory contributed to the ongoing conflict and influenced market expectations of U.S. strikes in the region.
US strikes Iranian radar and drone sites after MQ-1 Predator drone shot down
8 jumps to 7%6%
Following the downing of a US MQ-1 Predator drone by Iranian forces, the US launched strikes on Iranian radar and drone control sites, confirming ongoing US military operations in Iran and maintaining the market's expectation of limited countries targeted.
US bombs Iranian military sites; Kuwait hit by Iranian drone and missile fire injuring Americans
8 surges to 43%20%
US military strikes targeted Iranian radar and drone control sites in Iran, while Iran launched drone and missile attacks on Kuwait, injuring US personnel and damaging drones, confirming US military action in Iran and Iranian retaliatory strikes on Kuwaiti soil.
US bombs Iranian radar and drone control sites after drone downing
8 jumps to 30%5%
The US military bombed Iranian radar and drone control sites following Iran's downing of an American MQ-1 Predator drone. This action underscored the fragile ceasefire and ongoing hostilities, contributing to the market's assessment of US military actions in multiple countries.
US strikes Iranian radar and drone control sites after drone shot down
Following Iran's downing of a US MQ-1 Predator drone on May 30, 2026, the US conducted strikes on Iranian radar and drone control sites, marking a direct military action on Iranian soil and escalating tensions further.
US strikes Iranian radar and drone sites after MQ-1 Predator drone downed
8 jumps to 24%9%
Following Iran shooting down a US MQ-1 Predator drone, the US conducted airstrikes on Iranian radar and drone control sites, confirming continued US military action on Iranian territory.
US conducts airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone sites after cargo ship attack
8 surges to 67%20%
In late May 2026, US aircraft struck Iranian missile and drone infrastructure in retaliation for attacks on commercial shipping, demonstrating continued US military action on Iranian soil.
US conducts airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone sites after cargo ship attack
In response to Iranian drone attacks on a commercial ship near Oman, US aircraft struck multiple Iranian missile and drone infrastructure sites, including coastal radar installations. This action further intensified US military operations on Iranian soil.
U.S. conducts airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone sites after cargo ship attack
8 jumps to 16%7%
In response to Iranian drone attacks on commercial shipping near the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. aircraft struck Iranian missile and drone storage sites and coastal radar installations, escalating military actions in the region.
US fires missile at commercial ship attempting to breach blockade near Iran
On May 29, 2026, US forces fired a Hellfire missile at the engine room of a commercial ship trying to circumvent the US-led blockade of Iranian ports, escalating tensions and prompting retaliatory strikes by Iran and subsequent US airstrikes on Iranian military sites.
Iranian missile and drone attacks on US air base in Kuwait cause injuries and damage
On May 28, 2026, Iran launched missile and drone attacks on the Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait, injuring five and destroying a US MQ-9 drone. This attack followed US strikes near Bandar Abbas, escalating hostilities and confirming US military action on Kuwaiti soil.
U.S. strikes Iranian-linked drone facility in Syria amid escalating tensions
9 rises to 23%1%
U.S. Central Command conducted a precision strike on a drone launch facility in eastern Syria linked to Iranian militias, marking U.S. military action on Syrian soil and signaling escalation in regional drone warfare.
US conducts precision strike on Iranian-linked drone facility in Syria
8 jumps to 30%7%
US Central Command carried out a precision air strike on a drone launch facility in eastern Syria linked to Iranian-aligned militias, marking a direct US military action on Syrian soil. This strike was part of ongoing efforts to counter drone threats to US personnel in the region and confirmed US military action in Syria in 2026.
U.S. conducts precision strike on Iranian-linked drone facility in Syria
8 dips to 19%3%
U.S. Central Command launched a precision airstrike on a drone launch facility in eastern Syria linked to Iranian-aligned militias, marking a significant escalation in regional tensions and demonstrating U.S. resolve to counter drone threats. This strike confirmed U.S. military action on Syrian soil, impacting market expectations for the number of countries targeted.
U.S. conducts precision strike on Iranian-linked drone facility in Syria
9 rises to 28%4%
U.S. Central Command launched a precision airstrike on a drone launch facility in eastern Syria linked to Iranian-aligned militias, marking a direct military action on Syrian soil. This strike confirmed U.S. willingness to target Iranian proxy infrastructure outside Iran, impacting market expectations for the number of countries struck.
US Central Command Strikes Iranian-Linked Drone Facility in Syria
8 jumps to 29%7%
US forces conducted a precision strike on a drone launch facility in Syria's Deir ez-Zor province, solidifying Syria's place on the list of targeted countries.
U.S. conducts precision strike on Iranian-linked drone facility in Syria
10 jumps to 19%10%
U.S. Central Command launched a precision airstrike on a drone launch facility in eastern Syria linked to Iranian-aligned militias, marking a direct military action on Syrian soil. This event confirmed U.S. military engagement in Syria in 2026, impacting market expectations for the number of countries targeted.
US conducts precision strike on Iranian drone facility in Syria
10 rises to 11%4%
US Central Command conducted a precision strike on a drone launch facility in eastern Syria linked to Iranian-aligned militias. This marked US military action on Iranian proxy infrastructure outside Iran, expanding the number of countries where US strikes occurred.
Iran launches missile and drone attacks on US air base in Kuwait
9 plunges to 2%46%
In retaliation for US strikes near Bandar Abbas, Iran fired missiles and drones at the US air base in Kuwait, marking the first confirmed US military strike impact on Kuwaiti soil in 2026. This event expanded the number of countries where US military action was effectively conducted.
US military intercepts Iranian drones and strikes drone station in Bandar Abbas, Iran
US Central Command announced strikes on an Iranian drone station in Bandar Abbas following interception of Iranian drones, demonstrating ongoing US strikes on Iranian territory in 2026.
US intercepts Iranian drones and strikes drone station in Bandar Abbas
8 drops to 30%7%
US Central Command intercepted Iranian drones and launched strikes on an Iranian drone base near Bandar Abbas, demonstrating ongoing US military operations on Iranian soil and countering drone threats.
US Military Launches Overnight Strikes on Drone Control Station in Bandar Abbas
12 jumps to 10%5%
The U.S. military conducted overnight strikes targeting an Iranian ground control station in Bandar Abbas and shot down four attack drones.
US conducts new strikes on Iranian military site and drones near Strait of Hormuz
9 rises to 11%4%
On May 27, 2026, the US military carried out strikes on an Iranian ground control station in Bandar Abbas and shot down Iranian attack drones threatening the Strait of Hormuz, reaffirming ongoing US military action solely on Iranian territory.
US conducts self-defense strikes on Iranian missile launch sites near Strait of Hormuz
The US military carried out precision strikes on Iranian missile launch sites and boats around the Strait of Hormuz, marking continued US military action on Iranian soil in 2026.
US military intercepts Iranian drones and strikes drone station in Bandar Abbas
The US military intercepted four Iranian UAVs and conducted a precision strike on a drone operating facility in Bandar Abbas, responding to escalating Iranian drone threats. This measured response maintained the ceasefire but signaled increased US military engagement in Iran, impacting market expectations for US strikes on Iranian soil.
US conducts strikes on Iranian missile launch sites and drone bases near Strait of Hormuz
8 dips to 26%1%
US Central Command carried out precision strikes on Iranian missile launch sites and drone facilities near the Strait of Hormuz, responding to escalating UAV threats and maintaining pressure on Iran amid ceasefire talks. This reinforced the ongoing US military focus on Iranian territory.
US military strikes Iranian drone station near Strait of Hormuz
8 jumps to 34%6%
The US military intercepted Iranian drones and launched strikes on an Iranian drone station in Bandar Abbas, Iran, marking a significant escalation in the conflict and signaling US intent to counter Iranian UAV threats in the region.
US military strikes Iranian drone station near Bandar Abbas
9 drops to 35%12%
The US Central Command conducted precision strikes on an Iranian drone base near Bandar Abbas after detecting preparations for additional drone launches, signaling an escalation in US military action against Iran. This event increased market expectations for US strikes on Iranian soil, impacting the market price.
US conducts self-defense strikes on Iranian missile launch sites near Strait of Hormuz
8 surges to 37%18%
The US military carried out strikes targeting Iranian missile launch sites and boats around the Strait of Hormuz amid ceasefire talks, signaling continued military engagement on Iranian territory.
US conducts self-defense strikes on Iranian missile launch sites and boats
9 surges to 27%17%
The US military carried out self-defense strikes targeting Iranian missile launch sites and boats around the Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing ceasefire negotiations. This continued pattern of strikes against Iranian territory reinforced market confidence that the US would not strike other countries in 2026.
U.S. military conducts self-defense strikes on Iranian missile launch sites near Strait of Hormuz
10 plunges to 11%36%
The U.S. military carried out self-defense strikes targeting Iranian missile launch sites and boats around the Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing ceasefire negotiations, signaling continued military engagement on Iranian soil.
US conducts airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone sites after cargo ship attack
10 jumps to 10%8%
In response to an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, the US launched multiple strikes on Iranian missile and drone infrastructure, reinforcing ongoing military operations in Iran and nearby waters.
US conducts airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone sites after cargo ship attack
8 jumps to 25%13%
In response to an Iranian drone attack on a commercial ship in the Strait of Hormuz, US aircraft carried out multiple strikes on Iranian missile and drone infrastructure, reaffirming US military action on Iranian soil and sustaining market expectations.
US conducts multiple strikes on Iranian missile and drone sites after cargo ship attack
8 rises to 25%1%
Following an Iranian drone attack on a commercial ship in the Strait of Hormuz, US aircraft carried out strikes on Iranian missile and drone infrastructure, including coastal radar and storage sites, escalating military actions on Iranian soil.
US Africa Command conducts coordinated strike against ISIS in Nigeria
8 plunges to 5%42%
US Africa Command, in coordination with the Nigerian government, conducted airstrikes against ISIS militants in Northeastern Nigeria, marking Nigeria as a country where US military action occurred in 2026.
US and Nigeria conduct joint airstrikes against ISIS in Northeastern Nigeria
8 surges to 37%25%
At the direction of the US President and Secretary of War, and in coordination with the Nigerian government, U.S. Africa Command conducted airstrikes against ISIS militants in Northeastern Nigeria starting May 16, 2026, marking significant US military action on Nigerian soil.
US and Nigeria begin joint military operation against ISWAP and Boko Haram
9 surges to 29%17%
On May 15, 2026, the US and Nigeria launched joint military operations including airstrikes against Islamic State West Africa Province and Boko Haram militants in northeastern Nigeria, marking US military action on Nigerian soil.
US and Nigerian forces launch joint military operation with airstrikes against ISWAP in Nigeria
9 surges to 29%17%
On May 15, 2026, the US and Nigeria began a joint military operation against ISWAP and Boko Haram in northeastern Nigeria, including special forces raids and multiple rounds of airstrikes. This operation killed senior ISWAP leaders and intensified US military involvement in Nigeria.
US conducts self-defense strikes on Iranian missile and drone sites
On May 7, 2026, US forces struck Iranian missile and drone launch sites and command locations in response to Iranian attacks on US Navy vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, focusing strikes on Iranian territory without reported strikes on other countries.
US military strikes Iranian facilities in Bandar Abbas and Qeshm
9 jumps to 26%14%
US forces targeted Iranian military facilities responsible for missile, drone, and small boat attacks against US warships in the Strait of Hormuz area, including Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island. This action was part of ongoing US military operations in Iran, reinforcing expectations of multiple strike locations.
U.S. forces strike Iranian military facilities in response to missile and drone attacks
9 jumps to 25%12%
U.S. Central Command announced strikes on Iranian missile and drone launch sites and command centers in southern Iran, targeting facilities responsible for attacks on U.S. warships. This confirmed continued U.S. aerial military actions on Iranian soil.
US military strikes Iranian military facilities near Strait of Hormuz
8 rises to 27%4%
US forces conducted strikes on Iranian missile and drone launch sites, command and control locations, and intelligence nodes near the Strait of Hormuz in response to Iranian attacks on US warships. This confirmed Iran as a country targeted by US military strikes in 2026.
U.S. forces strike Iranian military facilities near Strait of Hormuz
8 rises to 23%1%
U.S. Central Command conducted airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone launch sites, command centers, and surveillance nodes near the Strait of Hormuz in response to Iranian attacks on U.S. warships, escalating military tensions in the region.
US launches missile and drone strikes on Iranian military facilities
10 rises to 19%4%
The US military launched strikes on Iranian military sites responsible for attacks on US forces, escalating tensions and confirming US military action on Iranian soil. This event influenced market prices by increasing the perceived number of countries targeted by US strikes.
US forces strike Iranian military facilities after missile and drone attacks
9 jumps to 27%14%
US Central Command confirmed strikes on Iranian missile and drone launch sites responsible for attacks on US warships in the Strait of Hormuz. The strikes targeted multiple Iranian locations including Bandar Abbas and Qeshm, reaffirming that US military action was confined to Iran.
US forces strike Iranian military facilities near Strait of Hormuz
US Central Command announced strikes on Iranian missile, drone, and command sites responsible for attacks on US warships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, escalating tensions and confirming US military action on Iranian soil.
US strikes Iranian military sites in Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island
In response to missile, drone, and boat attacks on US destroyers, the US conducted strikes on Iranian military sites in Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island. This reinforced the market's view that US military action was confined to Iran.
U.S. authorizes joint commando raid and airstrikes against ISIS in Nigeria
8 rises to 23%4%
In May 2026, the U.S. authorized a joint commando raid killing a high-ranking ISIS leader in Nigeria, followed by airstrikes targeting ISIS fighters. This marked U.S. military action on Nigerian soil, expanding the number of countries affected by U.S. strikes in 2026.
US disables Iranian oil tankers amid renewed missile and drone attacks in Gulf
12 dips to 3%2%
The US Central Command disabled two Iranian oil tankers attempting to reach Iranian ports, enforcing a naval blockade. This action coincided with fresh missile and drone attacks reported by the UAE, indicating ongoing US military operations in the Gulf region and sustaining market expectations for strikes in multiple Middle Eastern countries.
US and African partners conduct Exercise African Lion 2026 in multiple African countries
8 plunges to 5%42%
The US co-led a large multinational military exercise across Ghana, Morocco, Senegal, and Tunisia, demonstrating military cooperation and presence in these African countries in 2026.
Iranian missile and drone strike damages US base in Saudi Arabia
8 jumps to 21%5%
Iran launched missile and drone strikes on Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, damaging US refueling aircraft and radar systems, and injuring US soldiers. This attack on US soil outside Iran expanded the conflict geographically and increased the number of countries involved in US military engagements.
Iranian missile and drone strike damages US base in Saudi Arabia
11 plunges to 6%41%
Following US strikes, Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks on US military bases in Saudi Arabia, including Prince Sultan Air Base, injuring US personnel and damaging aircraft. This expanded the conflict to Saudi territory, increasing the number of countries involved in US military actions.
Iranian missile and drone strike damages US refueling aircraft at Saudi base
On March 27, 2026, Iran launched missile and drone attacks on Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, damaging US refueling aircraft and injuring US soldiers, escalating the conflict and demonstrating Iran's capability to strike US assets outside Iran, influencing market perceptions of US military engagements in multiple countries.
Iranian missile and drone strike damages US base in Saudi Arabia
9 jumps to 12%9%
On March 27, 2026, Iran launched missile and drone attacks on Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, damaging US aircraft and injuring soldiers. This expanded the conflict to Saudi territory, indicating US involvement in multiple countries' soil and affecting market expectations for strikes beyond Iran.
US Strike on Iraqi Military Base Kills Seven PMF-Linked Soldiers
15+ rises to 7%4%
A US airstrike targeted the Habbaniya military base in Iraq's Al Anbar Governorate, confirming Iraq as one of the active countries subjected to US military action in 2026.
Iranian missile and drone strikes hit four US airbases in the region
12 rises to 5%4%
Iran's IRGC launched coordinated missile and drone strikes on four US airbases, expanding the conflict to US military sites outside Iran and increasing the number of countries involved in the conflict.
Iranian missile and drone strikes hit four US airbases in the Middle East
Iran launched coordinated missile and drone strikes on four US airbases in the region, damaging key military infrastructure and escalating the conflict beyond Iran's borders. This demonstrated Iran's capability to retaliate on multiple fronts but did not involve US-initiated strikes on other countries.
Iranian missile and drone strikes hit four US airbases in the Middle East
Iran launched coordinated missile and drone strikes on four US airbases, damaging key military infrastructure and escalating the conflict beyond Iran's borders. This demonstrated Iran's capability to strike US forces in multiple countries, increasing the number of countries involved in US military actions.
Iran retaliates with missile and drone strikes on US bases in Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Iraq
8 dips to 1%4%
Iran launched coordinated missile and drone attacks on US military bases in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iraq in response to US strikes on Kharg Island, expanding the conflict to multiple countries in the Middle East.
Iranian missile and drone strikes hit four US airbases in the Middle East
10 dips to 6%3%
Iran's IRGC launched coordinated missile and drone strikes on four US airbases, damaging key military infrastructure and escalating the conflict beyond Iran to US bases in allied countries, increasing the number of countries involved in US military actions.
Iranian missile and drone strikes target four US airbases in the region
9 rises to 15%3%
Iran's IRGC launched coordinated missile and drone strikes on four US airbases, causing damage to key military infrastructure. This escalation expanded the conflict to US bases outside Iran, increasing the number of countries involved in US military actions.
US airstrikes target Iranian-backed militias in Iraq, killing senior leaders
Following the outbreak of the Iran war, US forces conducted airstrikes against Iranian-backed militias in Iraq, killing key figures and escalating military action on Iraqi soil.
U.S. conducts large bombing raid on Kharg Island, Iran
10 plunges to 11%36%
The U.S. Air Force conducted a large bombing raid on Kharg Island, Iran, targeting over 90 military sites, further intensifying U.S. military operations on Iranian territory.
US Conducts Precision Air Strike Against ISIS in Iraq
15+ jumps to 13%12%
U.S. Central Command executed a precision air strike in Iraq's Al Anbar province, targeting and killing the second-in-command of ISIS.
US conducts precision airstrike killing senior ISIS leader in Iraq
9 rises to 4%3%
On March 13, 2026, US Central Command carried out a precision airstrike in Al Anbar province, Iraq, killing Abdallah “Abu Khadijah” Makki Muslih al-Rifai, the second-in-command of ISIS, and another operative. This strike was part of ongoing US counterterrorism operations targeting ISIS in Iraq during 2026.
US conducts multiple airstrikes against Iran-backed militias in Iraq
Since the outbreak of the 2026 Iran war, the US has conducted numerous airstrikes targeting Iranian-backed militias in Iraq, including the Popular Mobilization Forces. These strikes have killed dozens of militia members and targeted multiple bases across Iraq.
Drone attack hits US diplomatic facility in Iraq
8 plunges to 5%42%
A drone assault targeted a major US diplomatic facility in Iraq, reflecting ongoing hostilities and US military involvement in Iraq during 2026.
US expands strikes in Iraq and Syria against ISIS and Iran-aligned groups
8 jumps to 16%8%
Following the initial strikes on Iran, the US escalated military operations in Iraq and Syria targeting ISIS and Iran-aligned militias, involving airstrikes and drone attacks on these countries' territories. This expanded the number of countries where the US conducted military strikes in 2026.
US launches military operation in Ecuador targeting terrorists
9 rises to 36%1%
The US began joint military operations in Ecuador against designated terrorist groups, adding Ecuador as a new country of US military action in 2026 and increasing the count of targeted countries.
US launches military operation in Ecuador targeting terrorist organizations
In March 2026, the US began joint military operations in Ecuador against designated terrorist groups, marking US military action on Ecuadorian soil and expanding the number of countries involved in US military operations in 2026.
US launches military operation in Ecuador against terrorists
9 jumps to 12%9%
In March 2026, the US began military operations in Ecuador targeting designated terrorist organizations, expanding the number of countries where the US conducted strikes in 2026.
U.S. military expands strikes against ISIS targets in Syria after ambush
10 plunges to 11%36%
Following an ambush that killed U.S. personnel, the U.S. conducted large-scale airstrikes against ISIS targets in Syria, increasing military actions on Syrian soil.
U.S. launches military operations in Ecuador targeting terrorist groups
9 drops to 36%11%
The Trump administration began joint military operations in Ecuador against designated terrorist organizations, marking U.S. military action on Ecuadorian soil.
US expands air operations against ISIS in Syria
US forces expanded operations striking ISIS targets in Syria, confirming US air strikes on Syrian soil in 2026, contributing to the count of countries targeted by US military strikes.
US military operation captures Venezuelan leader Maduro
In January 2026, US forces conducted a military operation in Venezuela capturing President Nicolás Maduro, marking direct US military action on Venezuelan soil. This adds Venezuela to the list of countries targeted by US military strikes in 2026.
US conducts large-scale strikes against ISIS targets in Syria
In response to an Islamic State attack, the US carried out large-scale airstrikes against ISIS targets in Syria, involving over 90 munitions on more than 35 targets. This confirmed US air strikes on Syrian soil, contributing to the count of countries targeted.
Trump administration launches US military operation in Ecuador against terrorists
8 dips to 1%4%
The U.S. began joint military operations in Ecuador targeting designated terrorist organizations, marking a new country where U.S. military action occurred in 2026. This broadened the geographic scope of U.S. military engagements beyond the Middle East.
US launches military operation in Ecuador targeting terrorists
8 jumps to 21%5%
In March 2026, the US began joint military operations in Ecuador against designated terrorist organizations, marking another country where US military action occurred and influencing market perceptions of the total countries struck.
US launches military operations in Ecuador targeting designated terrorist organizations
In March 2026, the US began joint military operations in Ecuador against designated terrorist groups, marking another country where the US conducted military action in 2026.
US military operation begins in Ecuador targeting terrorist organizations
10 plunges to 9%38%
In early March 2026, the US launched a military operation in Ecuador collaborating with local forces to combat designated terrorist groups, adding another country to the list where the US conducted military strikes in 2026.
US conducts strikes on Iranian radar and drone sites after MQ-1 drone shootdown
12 dips to 2%3%
Following the shootdown of a US MQ-1 drone, the US military launched strikes on Iranian radar and drone command sites on Qeshm Island and Goruk. This action escalated hostilities and was part of ongoing US military operations against Iran, influencing market prices for strikes in the Middle East.
Iranian drone strike hits CIA station at US Embassy in Riyadh
A drone strike on March 3, 2026, targeted the CIA station at the US Embassy in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, escalating the US-Iran conflict and highlighting the risk of broader military confrontation in the region.
Drone strikes near US embassies in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait amid escalating conflict
12 dips to 2%3%
Drone activity targeted areas near US diplomatic compounds in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, leading to heightened security alerts and embassy closures. This expansion of conflict zones to include diplomatic sites underscored the widening scope of US military involvement in the region.
Trump administration expands counterterrorism operations including strikes in Iraq, Nigeria, and Somalia
In early 2026, the Trump administration approved the expansion of counterterrorism operations that included bombing targets in Iraq, Nigeria, and Somalia, reflecting a broader military engagement across multiple countries.
Iranian missile and drone strikes target US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan
12 dips to 2%3%
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed missile and drone attacks on US military bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan, marking a sharp escalation and retaliation for US strikes. These attacks increased regional tensions and the likelihood of further US military responses in multiple countries.
US and Arab nations condemn Iran's missile and drone strikes across West Asia
9 drops to 34%13%
The US and six Arab nations issued a joint statement condemning Iran's missile and drone attacks on multiple countries including Bahrain, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. This highlighted the broad regional impact of the conflict and increased expectations of US military responses across these countries.
Iranian missile and drone strike damages US base in Saudi Arabia
9 jumps to 15%10%
On March 2, 2026, Iran launched missile and drone attacks on Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, damaging US aircraft and injuring US soldiers. This expanded the conflict beyond Iran, involving US military action and Iranian retaliation in Saudi Arabia and signaling broader regional engagement.
Iran retaliates with missile and drone strikes on US bases in Gulf countries
11 dips to 4%4%
Following US and Israeli strikes on Iran, Iran launched missile and drone attacks on US military bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan, and the UAE. These retaliatory strikes expanded the geographic scope of US military engagement to include multiple Middle Eastern countries.
U.S. deploys Tomahawk missiles, B-2 bombers, and suicide drones in strikes on Iran
8 dips to 1%4%
Following the initial wave of strikes, the U.S. intensified its bombing campaign using advanced weaponry including Tomahawk cruise missiles, stealth B-2 bombers, and suicide drones against Iranian missile and military facilities, reinforcing the focus on Iran as the primary target of U.S. military action.
Iran retaliates with missile and drone strikes on US bases in Middle East
Following US and Israeli strikes on Iran, Iran launched missile and drone attacks targeting US military bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, expanding the conflict to multiple countries' soil and increasing the count of countries involved in US military action.
US expands counterterrorism airstrikes against ISIS targets in Syria
In early 2026, the US conducted large-scale strikes against ISIS targets in Syria, including weapons caches and supply routes, as part of ongoing counterterrorism operations. This added Syria as a country where the US conducted military strikes in 2026.
Iran retaliates with missile and drone strikes on US bases in Gulf states
9 dips to 26%4%
Iran launched missile and drone strikes on US military bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, UAE, and Saudi Arabia in early March 2026, expanding the conflict to multiple countries hosting US forces. This increased the count of countries where US military action was involved due to retaliatory strikes and counterstrikes.
Iranian missile and drone strikes target US military bases in Gulf states
Iran launched missile and drone attacks on US military bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Iraq, but no US air or missile strikes on these countries' soil were reported, indicating these countries were not targeted by US strikes in 2026.
US conducts airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone sites in response to attacks
9 jumps to 8%5%
Following the initial strikes, the US continued targeting Iranian missile and drone storage locations and radar sites, responding to Iranian missile and drone attacks on US bases and allies in the region. This sustained campaign confirmed ongoing US military action on Iranian soil.
US deploys Tomahawk missiles, B-2 bombers, and suicide drones in strikes on Iran
9 drops to 7%7%
The US intensified its air campaign against Iran using advanced weaponry including Tomahawk cruise missiles, B-2 stealth bombers, and suicide drones, demonstrating sustained military action exclusively against Iranian targets in early March 2026.
U.S. deploys Tomahawk missiles, B-2 bombers, and suicide drones in strikes on Iran
9 plunges to 15%32%
The U.S. intensified its military campaign against Iranian targets using advanced weaponry including Tomahawk cruise missiles, stealth bombers, and suicide drones. This marked a significant escalation in aerial strikes on Iranian soil, confirming active U.S. military operations in Iran.
Iran launches missile and drone strikes on US embassies and military bases in Middle East
In retaliation to US-Israel strikes, Iran targeted US embassies and military installations in Bahrain, Kuwait, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Iraq, Oman, and Qatar with missiles and drones, expanding the conflict across multiple countries' territories.
Iran launches missile and drone attacks on US bases and allies
9 drops to 28%6%
Following the US-Israel strikes, Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks against US military bases and US-aligned Arab countries including Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, and the UAE. This expanded the conflict beyond Iran's borders, raising the possibility of US strikes in multiple countries.
US deploys B-2 bombers, Tomahawk missiles, and suicide drones in strikes on Iran
9 plunges to 15%32%
The US intensified its military campaign against Iran using advanced weaponry including Tomahawk cruise missiles, B-2 stealth bombers, and suicide drones targeting Iranian military facilities. This demonstrated a significant escalation in US air strikes exclusively on Iranian territory, reinforcing market expectations of limited country targets.
US deploys Tomahawk missiles, B-2 bombers, and suicide drones in strikes on Iran
8 drops to 0%5%
The US intensified its bombing campaign against Iranian military sites using advanced weaponry including Tomahawk cruise missiles, B-2 stealth bombers, and suicide drones, reinforcing the focus on Iran and limiting expectations of strikes in other countries.
Iran launches retaliatory missile and drone strikes on US and allied bases in Middle East
12 drops to 48%14%
Following US strikes on Iran, Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks targeting US military bases and allied countries including Bahrain, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, expanding the conflict to multiple countries' territories.
US and Israel conduct joint military strikes on Iran
9 drops to 35%12%
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel launched nearly 900 strikes targeting Iranian missiles, air defenses, military infrastructure, and leadership, including killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. This marked the start of a major military conflict involving Iran and significantly influenced market expectations for US strikes in multiple countries in the region.
US and Israel launch nearly 900 strikes on Iranian military targets
9 dips to 2%1%
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel conducted a massive coordinated strike campaign against Iranian missile, air defense, and military infrastructure, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and dozens of officials. This marked the start of a major US military campaign on Iranian soil, significantly affecting market expectations.
US and Israel launch joint strikes on Iranian military targets
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel conducted nearly 900 strikes on Iranian missile, air defense, and military infrastructure as part of Operation Epic Fury, marking the start of open hostilities. This major military action set the stage for subsequent US strikes primarily focused on Iran.
U.S. and Israeli forces launch nearly 900 strikes on Iranian military targets
8 plunges to 5%42%
On February 28, 2026, the U.S. and Israel commenced a large-scale air campaign against Iran, targeting missile sites, air defenses, and military infrastructure, marking the start of Operation Epic Fury and significantly escalating the conflict. This event set the stage for subsequent retaliatory strikes and expanded U.S. military actions in the region, impacting market expectations for the number of countries involved.
Iran launches drone and missile strikes on U.S. bases in Jordan and Gulf states
8 dips to 1%4%
In response to U.S. strikes on Iran, Iran launched missile and drone attacks targeting U.S. military facilities in Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, and other allied countries, expanding the conflict to multiple countries' territories.
US and Israel launch nearly 900 strikes on Iranian military targets
8 plunges to 5%42%
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel commenced a large-scale air campaign against Iran, targeting missile sites, air defenses, and military infrastructure, marking the start of Operation Epic Fury and escalating the conflict significantly.
U.S. launches cruise missile strikes on Iran from Syrian bases
9 drops to 34%13%
The U.S. launched cruise missile strikes from Syria targeting key Iranian military sites, marking a direct U.S. military action on Iranian soil and escalating the conflict in early 2026.
United States and Israel launch major coordinated military strikes on Iran
10 plunges to 11%36%
The U.S. and Israel initiated a large-scale air campaign against Iran targeting nuclear and missile facilities, marking a significant escalation and the start of sustained military operations on Iranian soil.
US and Israel launch Operation Epic Fury against Iran
9 rises to 3%2%
On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury, a massive coordinated military campaign targeting Iranian military and nuclear infrastructure. The operation included hundreds of precision strikes, resulting in the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and significant degradation of Iran's military capabilities, marking a major escalation in US-Iran conflict.
US and Israel launch coordinated strikes on Iran targeting nuclear and military sites
13 plunges to 1%46%
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel commenced a large-scale air campaign against Iran, striking nearly 900 targets including missile sites, air defenses, and leadership facilities, marking a major escalation in the conflict and initiating Operation Epic Fury.
US and Israel launch coordinated major air strikes on Iran
15+ plunges to 5%42%
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel commenced a large-scale air campaign targeting Iranian missile sites, air defenses, military infrastructure, and leadership, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and dozens of officials. This marked the start of Operation Epic Fury and significantly increased the likelihood of US strikes on Iranian soil.
US and Israeli forces launch nearly 900 strikes on Iran in 12 hours
12 plunges to 3%44%
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel commenced a large-scale airstrike campaign against Iran targeting missiles, air defenses, military infrastructure, and leadership, marking the start of Operation Epic Fury and significantly increasing the likelihood of US strikes on Iranian soil.
US and Israel commence military strikes in Iran targeting missile infrastructure
8 plunges to 5%42%
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel began coordinated military strikes in Iran targeting missile infrastructure and leadership nodes, marking the start of Operation Epic Fury authorized by President Trump. This initiated the conflict and set the stage for subsequent US military actions on Iranian soil.
United States and Israel launch major military strikes on Iran
8 surges to 18%17%
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel initiated a large-scale coordinated air and missile campaign against Iranian nuclear and military sites, killing senior leaders including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, significantly escalating the conflict and increasing market expectations for multiple countries being struck.
US launches Operation Epic Fury with strikes on Iranian military sites
8 plunges to 19%28%
The US launched a major military campaign against Iran, including missile and drone strikes on Iranian military targets, marking the start of significant US military action on Iranian soil in 2026. This event set the stage for the market by confirming at least one country targeted: Iran.
US and Israel Launch Operation Epic Fury Against Iran
11 jumps to 14%13%
The United States and Israel launched a massive coordinated air campaign against Iranian military, missile, and air defense infrastructure, marking the official start of the 2026 Iran War.
US and Israeli forces commence military strikes on Iran
8 plunges to 5%42%
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel began coordinated missile, drone, and air strikes on Iranian territory targeting missile infrastructure and nuclear-related facilities, marking the start of Operation Epic Fury and escalating the conflict significantly.
US and Israel conduct coordinated military strikes in Iran
9 plunges to 3%44%
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel launched nearly 900 strikes targeting Iranian missiles, air defenses, military infrastructure, and leadership, marking a major escalation in the Iran conflict. This operation significantly influenced market pricing for US military actions in multiple countries.
US and Israel launch coordinated strikes on Iran
9 jumps to 15%10%
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel initiated a large-scale military strike campaign against Iran targeting nuclear and missile facilities, marking a major escalation in the Middle East conflict and significantly impacting market expectations for US military actions.
U.S. and Israel launch nearly 900 strikes on Iran targeting military infrastructure
8 surges to 68%21%
On February 28, 2026, the U.S. and Israel initiated a large-scale air campaign against Iran, striking nearly 900 targets including missile sites, air defenses, and leadership facilities. This marked the start of a broad military confrontation, significantly increasing the likelihood of U.S. strikes on Iranian soil and affecting market expectations.
Iran launches missile and drone strikes on U.S. bases in Jordan and Gulf states
9 jumps to 11%8%
In retaliation to U.S. strikes, Iran launched missile and drone attacks targeting U.S. military facilities in Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, and other Gulf countries, expanding the conflict to multiple countries' territories and increasing the count of countries involved in U.S. military actions.
US and Israel launch major joint military strikes against Iran
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel launched coordinated air and missile strikes against multiple Iranian military and government targets, marking one of the most significant US military actions in Iran in decades. This escalation followed failed nuclear negotiations and increased US military presence in the region, significantly affecting market expectations for US military engagements in 2026.
US and Israel commence coordinated airstrikes on Iran
8 drops to 41%6%
Following failed nuclear negotiations, the US and Israel launched extensive airstrikes on Iranian military and nuclear sites, initiating a major conflict theater and confirming Iran as a key country targeted in 2026.
US and Israeli forces launch coordinated strikes on Iran
11 plunges to 6%41%
Following failed nuclear negotiations, the US and Israel launched nearly 900 strikes targeting Iranian missiles, air defenses, and military infrastructure, marking a major escalation in the conflict and initiating Operation Epic Fury.
Iran launches retaliatory missile and drone strikes on US bases in Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain
8 rises to 8%2%
Following US strikes on Iran, Iran launched missile and drone attacks targeting US and allied military facilities in Jordan, Kuwait, and Bahrain. This expanded the conflict to multiple countries' territories, increasing the count of countries where US military action was relevant due to reciprocal strikes and regional tensions.
Iran launches missile and drone strikes on US bases in Jordan and Kuwait
8 jumps to 16%11%
Following US strikes on Iran, Iran launched missile and drone attacks targeting US and allied military facilities in Jordan and Kuwait, including the Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan. This expanded the conflict to multiple countries, affecting market pricing for US military actions.
US and Israel launch coordinated strikes on Iran's military infrastructure
8 surges to 68%21%
The United States and Israel initiated nearly 900 strikes targeting Iranian missiles, air defenses, and military leadership, marking the start of a major military campaign in Iran. This large-scale action significantly increased the likelihood of US military strikes on multiple countries in 2026.
US and Israeli forces launch nearly 900 strikes on Iranian military targets
8 dips to 1%4%
On February 28, 2026, US and Israeli forces conducted a massive wave of strikes targeting Iranian missiles, air defenses, and military infrastructure, killing key Iranian leaders and escalating the conflict. This event confirmed multiple strikes on Iranian soil, reinforcing market pricing for strikes in Iran.
US and Israeli forces launch nearly 900 strikes on Iranian military targets
10 plunges to 9%38%
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel initiated a large-scale air campaign against Iran, targeting missiles, air defenses, military infrastructure, and leadership, marking the start of Operation Epic Fury. This major military action on Iranian soil significantly impacted market expectations for US strikes in 2026.
US and Israel launch massive coordinated strikes on Iranian military targets
12 plunges to 3%44%
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel launched nearly 900 strikes targeting Iranian missiles, air defenses, military infrastructure, and leadership, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and others. This marked a major escalation and set the stage for retaliatory strikes and increased US military activity in the region, significantly impacting market expectations for US strikes in multiple countries.
US and Israel launch coordinated strikes on Iran targeting nuclear and military sites
12 plunges to 2%46%
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel commenced a large-scale air campaign against Iran, targeting missile infrastructure, military bases, and leadership, including the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, significantly escalating the conflict and involving multiple countries in the region.
U.S. ATACMS strike hits Iranian missile and air‑defence sites
9 jumps to 13%9%
U.S. forces launched an ATACMS strike that destroyed Iranian missile and air‑defence sites, marking the first combat use of a U.S. autonomous kamikaze drone against Iran. This added Iran as a second distinct country hit by U.S. air‑launched weapons in 2026.
Iran fires missiles and drones at United Arab Emirates after U.S.‑Israel strike
10 rises to 13%1%
Following the U.S.–Israel strikes on Iran, Iran launched a multiday barrage of missiles and drones at the United Arab Emirates. The UAE’s defence systems intercepted many of them, but the exchange confirmed the UAE as a third distinct country involved in the 2026 U.S. strike/retaliation cycle.
US and Israeli forces launch coordinated strikes on Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel commenced a large-scale air campaign targeting Iranian military and strategic sites, killing senior Iranian officials including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. This marked the start of the 2026 Iran war and significantly escalated US military action on Iranian soil.
US and Israeli forces launch nearly 900 strikes on Iranian military targets
9 drops to 33%14%
On February 28, 2026, US and Israeli forces conducted a massive coordinated air campaign targeting Iranian missile sites, air defenses, military infrastructure, and leadership, marking the start of Operation Epic Fury and significantly escalating the conflict. This event increased expectations of US military action on Iranian soil, impacting the market towards higher outcomes.
US and Israel commence military strikes in Iran under Operation Epic Fury
9 drops to 34%13%
Following failed negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program, the US and Israel began coordinated missile and drone strikes on Iranian territory, marking a significant escalation in military action against Iran and impacting market expectations for the number of countries targeted.
US and Israel conduct military strikes on Iran targeting missile and nuclear sites
8 surges to 27%17%
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel launched coordinated military strikes on Iranian missile, air defense, and nuclear-related facilities, marking a major US military action on Iranian soil and escalating regional conflict.
U.S. and Israel launch coordinated airstrikes on Iran initiating Operation Epic Fury
9 drops to 34%13%
The United States and Israel began a large-scale military campaign against Iran targeting nuclear and military infrastructure, marking the start of direct U.S. airstrikes on Iranian soil in 2026. This set the stage for subsequent U.S. strikes exclusively within Iran.
US and Israel launch coordinated strikes on Iran targeting nuclear and military sites
10 plunges to 8%21%
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel commenced a large-scale air campaign against Iran, striking nearly 900 targets including nuclear facilities and military infrastructure. This marked a major escalation in US military action in the Middle East, significantly increasing the number of countries involved in US strikes.
US deploys LUCAS drones in joint strike campaign against Iran
13 plunges to 1%46%
On February 28, 2026, CENTCOM's Task Force Scorpion Strike used LUCAS drones in combat targeting Iranian command nodes and missile production, marking a doctrinal shift in US drone warfare and intensifying the Iran conflict.
Trump authorizes Operation Epic Fury against Iran
8 plunges to 5%42%
President Trump authorized Operation Epic Fury, leading to U.S. and Israeli forces launching nearly 900 strikes on Iranian military targets starting February 28, 2026. This marked the beginning of extensive U.S. military action on Iranian soil, significantly impacting market expectations for the number of countries targeted.
US and Israel launch coordinated military strikes on Iran
On February 27-28, 2026, the US and Israel conducted missile and drone strikes on Iranian military targets as part of Operation Epic Fury, marking the start of intensified military action against Iran. This event increased market expectations of US strikes on Iranian soil, influencing the market towards lower numbers of countries targeted.
US launches Operation Epic Fury airstrikes against Iran
8 drops to 41%6%
The US initiated a major air campaign named Operation Epic Fury against Iran, targeting nuclear and missile facilities, marking the start of significant US military action on Iranian soil in 2026. This set the stage for ongoing strikes throughout the year, influencing market expectations for US military actions.
US authorizes Operation Epic Fury, initiating strikes on Iran
10 plunges to 8%39%
On February 27, 2026, President Trump authorized Operation Epic Fury, leading to US missile and drone strikes on Iranian territory starting February 28. This marked the beginning of direct US military action on Iranian soil, significantly impacting market expectations for the number of countries targeted.
US authorizes Operation Epic Fury, launching strikes on Iran
8 plunges to 5%42%
On February 27, 2026, President Trump authorized Operation Epic Fury, leading to US missile, drone, and air strikes on Iranian territory starting the next day. This marked the beginning of significant US military action on Iranian soil, impacting market expectations for the number of countries targeted.
US authorizes Operation Epic Fury, launching strikes on Iran
15+ plunges to 1%47%
On February 27, 2026, President Trump authorized Operation Epic Fury, leading to US and Israeli missile and drone strikes on Iranian military infrastructure starting February 28. This marked a significant escalation in US military action against Iran, influencing market expectations about the number of countries targeted.
US authorizes Operation Epic Fury, begins missile and drone strikes on Iran
9 plunges to 30%17%
On February 27, 2026, President Trump authorized Operation Epic Fury, leading to US missile, drone, and Israeli fighter jet strikes on Iran starting February 28. This marked the beginning of direct US military action on Iranian soil, significantly impacting market expectations for the number of countries struck.
US and Israel commence military strikes on Iran under Operation Epic Fury
8 plunges to 5%42%
On February 27, 2026, President Trump authorized Operation Epic Fury, leading to US and Israeli missile and drone strikes on Iranian military targets starting February 28. This marked the beginning of a major US military campaign against Iran, driving market expectations for multiple strikes on Iranian soil.
US and Mexico conduct joint military operation killing cartel leader El Mencho
9 plunges to 3%44%
On February 22, 2026, the US and Mexico launched a joint operation targeting a major cartel leader, resulting in his death and escalating military activity in Mexico, contributing to the count of countries with US military strikes.
Joint US-Mexico military operation kills cartel leader
8 dips to 1%4%
On February 22, 2026, the US and Mexico conducted a joint military operation targeting a cartel leader, resulting in his death and widespread violence in Mexico. This operation involved US military strikes on Mexican soil, adding to the number of countries affected by US military action in 2026.
US and Mexico conduct joint military operation against cartel leader, escalating military actions
On February 22, 2026, the US and Mexico launched a joint military operation to capture a cartel leader, resulting in multiple deaths and escalating violence, marking US military action on Mexican soil in 2026.
US AFRICOM conducts airstrikes targeting ISIS-Somalia in Golis Mountains
8 jumps to 16%7%
Between February 22-26 and on February 28, 2026, U.S. Africa Command conducted airstrikes targeting ISIS-Somalia in the Golis Mountains region, Somalia, further intensifying US military operations in Somalia.
Joint US-Mexico military operation kills cartel leader in Mexico
9 plunges to 30%17%
On February 22, 2026, the US and Mexico conducted a joint military operation targeting a cartel leader, resulting in his death and widespread violence, marking US military action on Mexican soil.
US military conducts three lethal strikes on suspected drug boats in Pacific and Caribbean
9 surges to 29%17%
On February 16, 2026, US forces carried out three lethal strikes on small boats in international waters in the eastern Pacific and Caribbean, killing 11 people. These strikes were part of the ongoing Operation Southern Spear targeting narcotics smuggling routes.
US Southern Command announces lethal strike killing two on vessel in eastern Pacific
9 jumps to 12%7%
On February 6, 2026, US Southern Command announced a lethal strike on a vessel in the eastern Pacific Ocean as part of Operation Southern Spear targeting suspected drug traffickers. This strike was part of a broader campaign of maritime military actions in international waters near Latin America.
U.S. drone strike kills four Al-Qaeda operatives in Marib, Yemen
U.S. drone strike killed four AQAP members in Marib province, Yemen, continuing the U.S. drone campaign against terrorist groups in Yemen during 2026.
US conducts airstrikes against Islamic State in Somalia
8 plunges to 5%42%
US forces carried out airstrikes targeting Islamic State-affiliated militants in Somalia, expanding counterterrorism operations in Africa and marking Somalia as a country where US military action occurred in 2026.
US conducts airstrikes against Islamic State militants in Somalia
On February 1, 2026, US forces carried out airstrikes targeting Islamic State-affiliated militants in Somalia, marking US military action on Somali soil as part of counterterrorism operations.
US Africa Command conducts airstrike targeting al-Shabaab in Somalia
9 rises to 3%2%
On January 29, 2026, US Africa Command, in coordination with the Federal Government of Somalia, conducted an airstrike targeting al-Shabaab militants. This was part of ongoing US counterterrorism operations in Somalia aimed at degrading terrorist capabilities threatening US interests and regional stability.
U.S. drone strike targets Al-Qaeda leaders in eastern Marib, Yemen
8 drops to 35%12%
A U.S. drone strike targeted a meeting of Al-Qaeda leaders in Marib province, Yemen, killing several militants. This continued the U.S. counterterrorism campaign against AQAP in Yemen, confirming ongoing U.S. military action on Yemeni soil.
US conducts airstrike targeting ISIS in Somalia
8 jumps to 23%7%
In coordination with the Federal Government of Somalia, the US Africa Command conducted airstrikes targeting ISIS-Somalia, marking Somalia as another country where the US conducted military strikes in 2026.
Putin offers to mediate Middle East tensions after calls with Israel and Iran
7 drops to 39%7%
Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke with Israeli and Iranian leaders, pitching Russia as a mediator amid regional tensions and U.S. threats of strikes on Iran. This diplomatic move suggested a de-escalation in U.S. military action in the Middle East, reducing market expectations for U.S. strikes on multiple countries.
US forces capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in Caracas incursion
In January 2026, US forces conducted a military incursion into Caracas, Venezuela, resulting in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro and his transfer to the United States. This marked direct US military action on Venezuelan soil, expanding the number of countries involved in US military operations in 2026.
US AFRICOM conducts airstrikes targeting al-Shabaab in Somalia
8 jumps to 27%12%
U.S. Africa Command conducted airstrikes targeting al-Shabaab militants in Somalia on January 14, 2026, continuing its counterterrorism campaign in the region and reinforcing US military presence in Somalia.
U.S. Africa Command conducts airstrikes targeting al-Shabaab in Somalia
AFRICOM conducted airstrikes against al-Shabaab militants in Somalia, marking US military action on Somali soil in 2026 and contributing to the count of countries targeted by US strikes.
US conducts covert drone strikes against AQAP in Yemen
Throughout early 2026, US airstrikes targeted Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) in Yemen, indicating US military action on Yemeni soil beyond the Iran conflict, contributing to the total count of countries with US strikes in 2026.
Reported US drone strike kills senior AQAP officials in Yemen's Marib region
On January 11, 2026, reports indicated a US drone strike in eastern Marib, Yemen, killed two senior AQAP officials, suggesting ongoing covert US military operations against terrorist groups in Yemen despite official denials.
U.S. and Jordan launch airstrikes against Islamic State targets in Syria
The US, alongside Jordan, launched a wave of airstrikes targeting ISIS in Syria, expanding US military action to Syrian territory in 2026.
US launches retaliatory strikes against ISIS in Syria after deadly ambush
In response to an ambush killing US personnel, the US launched airstrikes against ISIS targets in Syria, continuing military operations in the country.
US expands strikes against ISIS targets in Syria
Following attacks on US personnel, the US conducted large-scale strikes against ISIS targets in Syria, involving over 35 targets, demonstrating ongoing counterterrorism operations in the region.
US launches Operation Hawkeye Strike targeting ISIS in Syria
9 rises to 4%3%
In response to a December 13, 2025 ambush that killed two US soldiers and a civilian interpreter, the US launched Operation Hawkeye Strike, conducting large-scale airstrikes against over 35 ISIS targets across Syria. The operation involved more than 20 aircraft and over 90 precision munitions, signaling a strong US commitment to counterterrorism in the region.
US launches air strikes against ISIS targets in Syria
8 drops to 41%6%
The US military conducted air strikes on ISIS targets in Syria as part of expanded counterterrorism operations, confirming ongoing US military action in Syria and contributing to the count of countries targeted in 2026.
US launches large-scale strikes against Islamic State targets in Syria
8 drops to 41%6%
In January 2026, the US conducted extensive airstrikes against Islamic State targets in Syria following an IS attack, marking active military operations in Syria and contributing to the count of countries struck.
US conducts airstrikes against ISIS targets in Syria
8 jumps to 16%11%
The US and Jordan launched multiple airstrikes against Islamic State targets in Syria, utilizing precision munitions to destroy ISIS infrastructure. This confirmed Syria as a country where the US conducted military strikes in 2026.
US conducts large-scale strikes against ISIS targets in Syria
8 jumps to 16%6%
Following an IS ambush killing US personnel, the US launched large-scale air strikes against over 35 ISIS targets in Syria, expanding military action on Syrian soil and impacting market expectations for the number of countries struck.
US and Jordanian forces conduct second wave of airstrikes on ISIS positions in Syria
On January 10, 2026, US and Jordanian forces launched a second wave of airstrikes on dozens of ISIS positions near Deir ez-Zor, Syria, using over 90 munitions. This was part of an ongoing campaign against ISIS in Syria and Iraq following a December ambush that killed two US soldiers.
US launches airstrikes on militant camps in Nigeria's Sokoto state
9 rises to 13%3%
The US military conducted airstrikes targeting Lakurawa militant camps in northwestern Nigeria, marking a direct military action on Nigerian soil. This event increased the likelihood of the US conducting strikes in Nigeria, affecting the market's assessment of the number of countries targeted.
U.S. forces conduct military operation in Venezuela, capturing President Maduro
In January 2026, U.S. forces carried out a military incursion into Venezuela, capturing the country's leader and marking direct U.S. military action on Venezuelan soil, adding to the list of countries with U.S. military strikes in 2026.
US launches military operation extracting Maduro from Venezuela
On January 3, 2026, the US launched a military operation in Venezuela that extracted President Maduro and his wife from Caracas, marking a significant US military action in South America.
US military operation captures Venezuela's leader Maduro
8 jumps to 7%6%
In early January 2026, the US launched a military operation in Venezuela that resulted in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, marking a significant escalation in US military involvement in Latin America and increasing the count of countries targeted by US strikes.
US forces capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in Caracas incursion
8 surges to 67%20%
In January 2026, US forces carried out a military incursion into Venezuela resulting in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, marking direct US military action on Venezuelan soil and increasing the count of countries affected by US strikes.
US military launches operation capturing Venezuela's leader Maduro
8 jumps to 8%7%
In early 2026, the US launched a military operation in Venezuela, capturing President Nicolás Maduro, marking a direct military action on Venezuelan soil and escalating US involvement in Latin America.
US military operation captures Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro
8 jumps to 10%9%
In early January 2026, the US launched a military operation in Venezuela that resulted in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, marking a significant direct intervention on Venezuelan soil and increasing the count of countries struck by the US.
US military strikes and captures Venezuelan President Maduro
9 rises to 3%2%
On January 3, 2026, the United States launched a military strike in Venezuela, capturing incumbent President Nicolás Maduro and his wife. The operation marked a significant US military intervention in Venezuela, involving airstrikes and covert operations, and led to Maduro's removal from power and transfer to US custody.
US forces capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in Caracas incursion
13 plunges to 1%46%
In January 2026, US forces conducted a military operation in Venezuela resulting in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, significantly impacting the political situation and marking direct US military action in Latin America.
US launches large-scale military strikes and captures Maduro in Venezuela
9 plunges to 32%15%
On January 3, 2026, the US launched a major military operation in Venezuela, striking Caracas and capturing President Nicolás Maduro, marking a significant expansion of US military action in Latin America and increasing the number of countries where the US conducted strikes.
US conducts large-scale military strike in Venezuela, captures Maduro
7 drops to 39%7%
The US launched a major military operation in Venezuela, capturing President Nicolas Maduro and his wife, marking a direct US military action on Venezuelan soil. This event confirmed at least one country where the US initiated military strikes in 2026, significantly impacting market probabilities.
U.S. launches large-scale military strikes and captures Maduro in Venezuela
10 plunges to 11%36%
The U.S. launched a major military operation in Venezuela, striking Caracas and capturing President Nicolás Maduro, signaling direct U.S. military action in the country and increasing the count of countries with U.S. strikes.
U.S. military operation captures Venezuelan President Maduro
8 surges to 68%21%
In January 2026, U.S. forces conducted a military incursion into Caracas, Venezuela, resulting in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro. This direct military action in Venezuela added to the list of countries where the U.S. conducted strikes or operations in 2026.
US launches military strike in Venezuela capturing President Maduro
9 drops to 35%12%
On January 3, 2026, the US launched a military strike in Venezuela, capturing incumbent President Nicolás Maduro and his wife. This operation involved bombing infrastructure across northern Venezuela and marked a significant US military action outside the Middle East in 2026, impacting market expectations for the number of countries targeted.
US military strikes Venezuela, capturing President Maduro
8 plunges to 5%42%
The US launched a military strike in Venezuela, capturing incumbent President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, marking a significant military action in South America and expanding US military engagement to Venezuela.
US launches military strike in Venezuela and captures President Maduro
The US conducted a military strike in Venezuela, capturing President Nicolás Maduro and targeting infrastructure, marking US military action in Latin America in 2026.
U.S. launches military strike in Venezuela capturing President Maduro
8 dips to 44%3%
The U.S. launched a military operation in Venezuela, bombing infrastructure and capturing President Nicolás Maduro, marking a significant military action outside the Middle East and confirming Venezuela as a target country in 2026.
US forces capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in Caracas operation
9 plunges to 29%18%
In January 2026, US forces conducted a military incursion into Venezuela's capital, resulting in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro and his transfer to the United States. This marked a significant expansion of US military action in Latin America, increasing the count of countries targeted by US strikes.
US forces capture Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro in Caracas
8 drops to 41%6%
US forces conducted a military operation in Venezuela resulting in the capture of Nicolás Maduro, marking a significant US military action in Latin America and confirming Venezuela as a country targeted in 2026.
US military operation captures Venezuelan President Maduro
On January 3, 2026, US forces conducted a military operation in Venezuela resulting in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, marking a significant US military action on Venezuelan soil and increasing the count of countries involved in US military actions in 2026.
US AFRICOM conducts airstrikes targeting ISIS-Somalia
8 jumps to 18%13%
In coordination with the Federal Government of Somalia, U.S. Africa Command conducted airstrikes targeting ISIS-Somalia from January 1-3, 2026. This marked the continuation of US counterterrorism operations in Somalia, impacting market expectations for US military action in Somalia.
US expands counterterrorism operations in Africa and Middle East
The US increased military operations against terrorist groups in Somalia, Nigeria, Yemen, and Syria, involving airstrikes and drone attacks across multiple countries in 2026.
U.S. drone strike hits Venezuelan vessel in Caribbean
8 rises to 5%4%
The U.S. carried out a drone strike on a vessel tied to the Venezuelan drug‑trafficking network in the Caribbean. This was the first U.S. aerial strike on Venezuelan soil in 2026, adding Venezuela to the list of countries hit by U.S. drone or missile attacks and pushing the market outlook toward a higher country count.
US launches airstrikes against ISIS militants in Nigeria
9 drops to 35%12%
On Christmas Day 2025, the US military, in coordination with Nigerian forces, launched airstrikes targeting Islamic State militants in northwest Nigeria, marking a new phase in US counterterrorism efforts in Africa. This operation was publicly described by President Trump as a powerful strike against ISIS terrorists, signaling increased US military involvement in Nigeria.
US Africa Command launches airstrikes in Nigeria targeting Islamic State militants
9 plunges to 3%44%
On Christmas night 2025, the US Africa Command conducted airstrikes in Sokoto State, Nigeria, targeting Islamic State terrorists. This marked the first American combat action inside Nigeria and was acknowledged as a significant escalation in US military involvement there.
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