Diplomatic and judicial measures have addressed U.S. concerns over foreign port operations at the Panama Canal without any shift in Panamanian sovereignty. Panama’s Supreme Court invalidated concessions linked to Hong Kong-based operators, enabling the government to reassign terminals to interim managers while advancing competitive tenders for new facilities. U.S. officials have welcomed these steps as reducing external influence, consistent with bilateral talks and neutrality treaty commitments, while Panama’s leadership has rejected any transfer of control. Traders assign a 97.3 percent probability to “No” because no military deployments, formal demands for reversion, or escalatory signals have emerged in 2026. A sudden breakdown in diplomacy, major regional crisis, or explicit policy reversal could still alter the outlook before the 2027 cutoff.