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Politics·Taiwan

Keelung Mayor Election Winner

icon for Keelung Mayor Election Winner
Politics·Taiwan

Keelung Mayor Election Winner

Polymarket
NEW
Polymarket
NEW
icon for Hsieh Kuo-liang

Hsieh Kuo-liang

$875 Vol.

85%

icon for Tung Tzu-wei

Tung Tzu-wei

$315 Vol.

8%

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Keelung as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).Incumbent Keelung Mayor Hsieh Kuo-liang, the Kuomintang nominee, holds a strong position in the November 2026 local elections due to his established record since 2022 and party organizational support. Recent polling, including a Mirror Media survey showing him narrowly ahead of Democratic Progressive Party challenger Tung Tzu-wei with substantial undecided voters, reflects a competitive but incumbent-favored contest. Hsieh's survival of a prior recall effort has reinforced trader consensus around his reelection prospects. Tung Tzu-wei's nomination as the main opposition candidate introduces standard two-party dynamics, yet structural advantages for the sitting mayor and limited late-cycle shifts keep his odds lower. Multiple other listed contenders and the broad "Other" category remain distant in the current pricing, consistent with historical patterns where minor candidates rarely disrupt major-party outcomes in Taiwan municipal races. Upcoming candidate registration in late August offers a final procedural milestone before the November vote.

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Keelung as a result of this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Volume
$1,190
End Date
Nov 28, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 8:52 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Keelung as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Keelung as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).Incumbent Keelung Mayor Hsieh Kuo-liang, the Kuomintang nominee, holds a strong position in the November 2026 local elections due to his established record since 2022 and party organizational support. Recent polling, including a Mirror Media survey showing him narrowly ahead of Democratic Progressive Party challenger Tung Tzu-wei with substantial undecided voters, reflects a competitive but incumbent-favored contest. Hsieh's survival of a prior recall effort has reinforced trader consensus around his reelection prospects. Tung Tzu-wei's nomination as the main opposition candidate introduces standard two-party dynamics, yet structural advantages for the sitting mayor and limited late-cycle shifts keep his odds lower. Multiple other listed contenders and the broad "Other" category remain distant in the current pricing, consistent with historical patterns where minor candidates rarely disrupt major-party outcomes in Taiwan municipal races. Upcoming candidate registration in late August offers a final procedural milestone before the November vote.

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Keelung as a result of this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Volume
$1,190
End Date
Nov 28, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 8:52 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Keelung as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Keelung Mayor Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Hsieh Kuo-liang" at 85%, followed by "Tung Tzu-wei" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 85¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 85% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Keelung Mayor Election Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 14, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Keelung Mayor Election Winner," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Keelung Mayor Election Winner" is "Hsieh Kuo-liang" at 85%, meaning the market assigns a 85% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Tung Tzu-wei" at 8%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Keelung Mayor Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.