Hsu Shu-hua, the incumbent Kuomintang magistrate, holds a dominant position in the November 29, 2026, Nantou County Magistrate Election due to the party's two-decade control of the county, her record of clearing 91 billion NT$ in debt, expanding senior health insurance subsidies, and advancing transit infrastructure and rural bus services. KMT party leaders have reinforced this through coordinated campaigning and endorsements ahead of candidate registration. The primary challenger, Democratic Progressive Party candidate Wen Shih-cheng, opposes Hsu's planned incinerator project and advocates alternatives like solid recovered fuel, but faces structural barriers in a county with consistent KMT lean. Trader consensus prices reflect these factors, with late developments such as scandals, turnout shifts, or national political waves as the main variables that could narrow the margin before election day.