**Strong US regulatory and political barriers, including CXMT’s placement on the Pentagon blacklist over alleged military ties, are the main factors keeping the “No” outcome at 72.5% implied probability.** Apple has tested the Chinese firm’s DRAM chips for iPhones and MacBooks and held early talks focused on China-market devices to ease an AI-driven memory shortage, while lobbying the Trump administration for waivers. However, bipartisan senators have urged Apple to abandon any sourcing, even for China-only use, and recent reports indicate CXMT rejected Apple’s requests for discounted pricing. These hurdles, combined with technology-transfer restrictions and pressure to support allied suppliers like Micron, have shaped trader consensus that a commercial purchase remains improbable before year-end despite ongoing qualification efforts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated28% chance
$15,070 Vol.
$15,070 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
28% chance
$15,070 Vol.
$15,070 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Strong US regulatory and political barriers, including CXMT’s placement on the Pentagon blacklist over alleged military ties, are the main factors keeping the “No” outcome at 72.5% implied probability.** Apple has tested the Chinese firm’s DRAM chips for iPhones and MacBooks and held early talks focused on China-market devices to ease an AI-driven memory shortage, while lobbying the Trump administration for waivers. However, bipartisan senators have urged Apple to abandon any sourcing, even for China-only use, and recent reports indicate CXMT rejected Apple’s requests for discounted pricing. These hurdles, combined with technology-transfer restrictions and pressure to support allied suppliers like Micron, have shaped trader consensus that a commercial purchase remains improbable before year-end despite ongoing qualification efforts.
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ET
Volume
$15,070End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Strong US regulatory and political barriers, including CXMT’s placement on the Pentagon blacklist over alleged military ties, are the main factors keeping the “No” outcome at 72.5% implied probability.** Apple has tested the Chinese firm’s DRAM chips for iPhones and MacBooks and held early talks focused on China-market devices to ease an AI-driven memory shortage, while lobbying the Trump administration for waivers. However, bipartisan senators have urged Apple to abandon any sourcing, even for China-only use, and recent reports indicate CXMT rejected Apple’s requests for discounted pricing. These hurdles, combined with technology-transfer restrictions and pressure to support allied suppliers like Micron, have shaped trader consensus that a commercial purchase remains improbable before year-end despite ongoing qualification efforts.
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$15,070End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Strong US regulatory and political barriers, including CXMT’s placement on the Pentagon blacklist over alleged military ties, are the main factors keeping the “No” outcome at 72.5% implied probability.** Apple has tested the Chinese firm’s DRAM chips for iPhones and MacBooks and held early talks focused on China-market devices to ease an AI-driven memory shortage, while lobbying the Trump administration for waivers. However, bipartisan senators have urged Apple to abandon any sourcing, even for China-only use, and recent reports indicate CXMT rejected Apple’s requests for discounted pricing. These hurdles, combined with technology-transfer restrictions and pressure to support allied suppliers like Micron, have shaped trader consensus that a commercial purchase remains improbable before year-end despite ongoing qualification efforts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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