**Strong regulatory and supply constraints explain the market's 88.5% "No" consensus on Apple purchasing CXMT DRAM in 2026.** CXMT remains on the Pentagon's 1260H military companies list, prompting Apple to lobby the Trump administration for assurances against Entity List escalation, yet no clearance or volume deal has materialized. Early testing of LPDDR5X chips for China-bound iPhones and MacBooks has not progressed to commercial commitments, as CXMT's fabs run near 95% utilization with output largely pre-booked through 2027 for domestic clients like Huawei and Xiaomi. Recent reports indicate CXMT rejected Apple's discount requests, quoting prices at or above Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron levels amid the AI-driven shortage. Capacity limits, political sensitivities, and the absence of confirmed off-the-shelf purchases sustain trader skepticism heading into year-end.