Apple's unbroken 19-year history of annual iPhone releases every September has traders assigning a 97% implied probability to an iPhone 18 launch in 2026, bolstered by recent supply chain reports from Nikkei Asia and Bloomberg confirming production prioritization for premium iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models this fall. Credible leaks detail trial production timelines and new features like potential foldable variants, aligning with Apple's typical hardware refresh cycle despite rumors of a staggered rollout delaying standard models to spring 2027. This near-consensus reflects skin-in-the-game trader sentiment on the lineup's continuity, though realistic risks include global supply chain disruptions, advanced chip yield issues, or unprecedented strategic pivots—scenarios that have caused minor delays but never a full-year skip. Watch for WWDC hints or mid-year analyst updates ahead of the expected September announcement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$95,383 Vol.
$95,383 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$95,383 Vol.
$95,383 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's unbroken 19-year history of annual iPhone releases every September has traders assigning a 97% implied probability to an iPhone 18 launch in 2026, bolstered by recent supply chain reports from Nikkei Asia and Bloomberg confirming production prioritization for premium iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models this fall. Credible leaks detail trial production timelines and new features like potential foldable variants, aligning with Apple's typical hardware refresh cycle despite rumors of a staggered rollout delaying standard models to spring 2027. This near-consensus reflects skin-in-the-game trader sentiment on the lineup's continuity, though realistic risks include global supply chain disruptions, advanced chip yield issues, or unprecedented strategic pivots—scenarios that have caused minor delays but never a full-year skip. Watch for WWDC hints or mid-year analyst updates ahead of the expected September announcement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Volume
$95,383End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's unbroken 19-year history of annual iPhone releases every September has traders assigning a 97% implied probability to an iPhone 18 launch in 2026, bolstered by recent supply chain reports from Nikkei Asia and Bloomberg confirming production prioritization for premium iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models this fall. Credible leaks detail trial production timelines and new features like potential foldable variants, aligning with Apple's typical hardware refresh cycle despite rumors of a staggered rollout delaying standard models to spring 2027. This near-consensus reflects skin-in-the-game trader sentiment on the lineup's continuity, though realistic risks include global supply chain disruptions, advanced chip yield issues, or unprecedented strategic pivots—scenarios that have caused minor delays but never a full-year skip. Watch for WWDC hints or mid-year analyst updates ahead of the expected September announcement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$95,383End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's unbroken 19-year history of annual iPhone releases every September has traders assigning a 97% implied probability to an iPhone 18 launch in 2026, bolstered by recent supply chain reports from Nikkei Asia and Bloomberg confirming production prioritization for premium iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models this fall. Credible leaks detail trial production timelines and new features like potential foldable variants, aligning with Apple's typical hardware refresh cycle despite rumors of a staggered rollout delaying standard models to spring 2027. This near-consensus reflects skin-in-the-game trader sentiment on the lineup's continuity, though realistic risks include global supply chain disruptions, advanced chip yield issues, or unprecedented strategic pivots—scenarios that have caused minor delays but never a full-year skip. Watch for WWDC hints or mid-year analyst updates ahead of the expected September announcement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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