No active Article 50 notifications, scheduled referendums, or credible exit campaigns exist among the 27 EU member states as of mid-2026, underscoring the deterrent impact of Brexit's protracted negotiations and economic costs. Eurosceptic parties across France, Italy, and elsewhere have moderated or abandoned outright withdrawal platforms, while public polling shows limited support for departure amid deep economic integration and shared policy frameworks. Traders assign 96.5% probability to no exit by end-2026, reflecting this stable baseline. Plausible shifts could still arise from acute external shocks, such as abrupt US security disengagement prompting renegotiations, or domestic crises elevating fringe parties to power with sufficient parliamentary majorities to initiate formal processes within the narrow remaining window.