Trader consensus reflects the absence of any EU member state invoking Article 50 or scheduling exit referendums since the UK's Brexit completion in 2020, with procedural hurdles requiring at least two years post-notification making pre-2027 departures improbable. Recent eurosceptic setbacks in early 2026 elections—far-right underperformance in France, Italy, Slovenia, Bulgaria, and Sweden—have diminished exit momentum, while Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán affirmed in January that Hungary will not leave despite criticisms of Brussels. Strong economic interdependence via recovery funds and single market benefits, coupled with post-Brexit regrets, underpin the high implied probability of no withdrawals; only extraordinary events like snap elections yielding pro-exit supermajorities could shift odds before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAny country withdraws from EU before 2027?
Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?
$137,857 Vol.
$137,857 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$137,857 Vol.
$137,857 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects the absence of any EU member state invoking Article 50 or scheduling exit referendums since the UK's Brexit completion in 2020, with procedural hurdles requiring at least two years post-notification making pre-2027 departures improbable. Recent eurosceptic setbacks in early 2026 elections—far-right underperformance in France, Italy, Slovenia, Bulgaria, and Sweden—have diminished exit momentum, while Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán affirmed in January that Hungary will not leave despite criticisms of Brussels. Strong economic interdependence via recovery funds and single market benefits, coupled with post-Brexit regrets, underpin the high implied probability of no withdrawals; only extraordinary events like snap elections yielding pro-exit supermajorities could shift odds before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 7, 2025, 7:10 PM ET
Volume
$137,857End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 7, 2025, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects the absence of any EU member state invoking Article 50 or scheduling exit referendums since the UK's Brexit completion in 2020, with procedural hurdles requiring at least two years post-notification making pre-2027 departures improbable. Recent eurosceptic setbacks in early 2026 elections—far-right underperformance in France, Italy, Slovenia, Bulgaria, and Sweden—have diminished exit momentum, while Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán affirmed in January that Hungary will not leave despite criticisms of Brussels. Strong economic interdependence via recovery funds and single market benefits, coupled with post-Brexit regrets, underpin the high implied probability of no withdrawals; only extraordinary events like snap elections yielding pro-exit supermajorities could shift odds before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$137,909End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 7, 2025, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects the absence of any EU member state invoking Article 50 or scheduling exit referendums since the UK's Brexit completion in 2020, with procedural hurdles requiring at least two years post-notification making pre-2027 departures improbable. Recent eurosceptic setbacks in early 2026 elections—far-right underperformance in France, Italy, Slovenia, Bulgaria, and Sweden—have diminished exit momentum, while Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán affirmed in January that Hungary will not leave despite criticisms of Brussels. Strong economic interdependence via recovery funds and single market benefits, coupled with post-Brexit regrets, underpin the high implied probability of no withdrawals; only extraordinary events like snap elections yielding pro-exit supermajorities could shift odds before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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