Traders assign a 98.8 percent implied probability that Donald Trump will remain president through June 30, reflecting the lack of any active impeachment proceedings, Twenty-Fifth Amendment invocations, or other constitutional removal mechanisms. No congressional votes or special sessions are scheduled that could advance such actions in the next six weeks, and the administration shows no internal fractures or health disclosures that historically precede early exits. While acute medical events, sudden scandals, or unforeseen legal developments could still shift outcomes in theory, current Senate and House dynamics make rapid bipartisan consensus on removal highly improbable before the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$5,282,481 Vol.
$5,282,481 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$5,282,481 Vol.
$5,282,481 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 98.8 percent implied probability that Donald Trump will remain president through June 30, reflecting the lack of any active impeachment proceedings, Twenty-Fifth Amendment invocations, or other constitutional removal mechanisms. No congressional votes or special sessions are scheduled that could advance such actions in the next six weeks, and the administration shows no internal fractures or health disclosures that historically precede early exits. While acute medical events, sudden scandals, or unforeseen legal developments could still shift outcomes in theory, current Senate and House dynamics make rapid bipartisan consensus on removal highly improbable before the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 11, 2026, 12:21 PM ET
Volume
$5,282,481End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 11, 2026, 12:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 98.8 percent implied probability that Donald Trump will remain president through June 30, reflecting the lack of any active impeachment proceedings, Twenty-Fifth Amendment invocations, or other constitutional removal mechanisms. No congressional votes or special sessions are scheduled that could advance such actions in the next six weeks, and the administration shows no internal fractures or health disclosures that historically precede early exits. While acute medical events, sudden scandals, or unforeseen legal developments could still shift outcomes in theory, current Senate and House dynamics make rapid bipartisan consensus on removal highly improbable before the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$5,282,481End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 11, 2026, 12:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 98.8 percent implied probability that Donald Trump will remain president through June 30, reflecting the lack of any active impeachment proceedings, Twenty-Fifth Amendment invocations, or other constitutional removal mechanisms. No congressional votes or special sessions are scheduled that could advance such actions in the next six weeks, and the administration shows no internal fractures or health disclosures that historically precede early exits. While acute medical events, sudden scandals, or unforeseen legal developments could still shift outcomes in theory, current Senate and House dynamics make rapid bipartisan consensus on removal highly improbable before the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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