The recent Trump-Xi summit in mid-May passed without any public kiss or intimate gesture between the leaders, sharply reinforcing the market’s heavy lean toward “No.” With no scheduled follow-up meetings or events through the end of the month that would plausibly produce such a moment, traders have priced in the low likelihood of a last-minute development. Historical precedent shows state visits and summits rarely feature physical affection between heads of state, further anchoring sentiment. While Trump has appeared in other public settings since early May, none have generated the kind of viral or ceremonial context that would shift the implied probability.