Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Elon Musk posting under 40 times (49.5% implied probability) or 40-64 times (39.0%) on X from May 14-16, driven by his recent moderate activity averaging 23 posts per day across 46 total in the May 11-13 window. This marks a slowdown from earlier May peaks around 80+ daily during high-engagement periods like political buzz or Tesla announcements, with no major catalysts—such as product launches or controversies—visible in the past 48 hours. His May 13 confirmation of traveling to Beijing aboard Air Force One introduces uncertainty, potentially curbing volume amid travel or diplomacy, though historical patterns show spikes from real-time updates. Traders eye sustained low-to-mid output absent viral moments, with resolution based on verified main feed posts, quotes, and reposts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<40 51%
40-64 38%
65-89 9%
90-114 2.5%
$190,479 Vol.
$190,479 Vol.
May 16, 2026
<40
51%
40-64
38%
65-89
9%
90-114
2%
115-139
1%
140-164
1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
<40 51%
40-64 38%
65-89 9%
90-114 2.5%
$190,479 Vol.
$190,479 Vol.
May 16, 2026
<40
$40,851 Vol.
51%
40-64
$12,507 Vol.
38%
65-89
$46,212 Vol.
9%
90-114
$11,063 Vol.
2%
115-139
$10,065 Vol.
1%
140-164
$8,661 Vol.
1%
165-189
$18,910 Vol.
<1%
190-214
$16,078 Vol.
<1%
215-239
$15,766 Vol.
<1%
240+
$21,059 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 14 12:00 PM ET to May 16, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Elon Musk posting under 40 times (49.5% implied probability) or 40-64 times (39.0%) on X from May 14-16, driven by his recent moderate activity averaging 23 posts per day across 46 total in the May 11-13 window. This marks a slowdown from earlier May peaks around 80+ daily during high-engagement periods like political buzz or Tesla announcements, with no major catalysts—such as product launches or controversies—visible in the past 48 hours. His May 13 confirmation of traveling to Beijing aboard Air Force One introduces uncertainty, potentially curbing volume amid travel or diplomacy, though historical patterns show spikes from real-time updates. Traders eye sustained low-to-mid output absent viral moments, with resolution based on verified main feed posts, quotes, and reposts.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 14 12:00 PM ET to May 16, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: May 11, 2026, 12:01 PM ET
Volume
$190,479End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 12:01 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 14 12:00 PM ET to May 16, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Elon Musk posting under 40 times (49.5% implied probability) or 40-64 times (39.0%) on X from May 14-16, driven by his recent moderate activity averaging 23 posts per day across 46 total in the May 11-13 window. This marks a slowdown from earlier May peaks around 80+ daily during high-engagement periods like political buzz or Tesla announcements, with no major catalysts—such as product launches or controversies—visible in the past 48 hours. His May 13 confirmation of traveling to Beijing aboard Air Force One introduces uncertainty, potentially curbing volume amid travel or diplomacy, though historical patterns show spikes from real-time updates. Traders eye sustained low-to-mid output absent viral moments, with resolution based on verified main feed posts, quotes, and reposts.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 14 12:00 PM ET to May 16, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$190,479End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 12:01 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Elon Musk posting under 40 times (49.5% implied probability) or 40-64 times (39.0%) on X from May 14-16, driven by his recent moderate activity averaging 23 posts per day across 46 total in the May 11-13 window. This marks a slowdown from earlier May peaks around 80+ daily during high-engagement periods like political buzz or Tesla announcements, with no major catalysts—such as product launches or controversies—visible in the past 48 hours. His May 13 confirmation of traveling to Beijing aboard Air Force One introduces uncertainty, potentially curbing volume amid travel or diplomacy, though historical patterns show spikes from real-time updates. Traders eye sustained low-to-mid output absent viral moments, with resolution based on verified main feed posts, quotes, and reposts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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