Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters around 500-700 total posts for Elon Musk's May 2026 activity, with top bins like 600-619 (7.5%) and 560-579 (7.3%) reflecting a projected pace from roughly 222 posts through May 13—averaging 17 per day amid steady engagement on culture-war topics, memes, and travel updates like his Beijing trip. This moderated volume, down from historical peaks of 30-40 daily during controversies, drives the tight race, as traders weigh baseline consistency against upside risks from viral threads, Tesla/xAI announcements, or political flare-ups that could spike output. Key swing factors include mid-month business catalysts or lulls during international commitments, underscoring prediction markets' crowd wisdom in capturing Elon's unpredictable social media rhythms.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated600-619 7.5%
560-579 7.4%
660-679 6.9%
520-539 6.8%
$2,160,727 Vol.
$2,160,727 Vol.
160-179
<1%
180-199
<1%
200-219
<1%
220-239
<1%
240-259
<1%
260-279
<1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
1%
400-419
1%
420-439
1%
440-459
3%
460-479
3%
480-499
4%
500-519
6%
520-539
7%
540-559
6%
560-579
7%
580-599
7%
600-619
8%
620-639
6%
640-659
6%
660-679
7%
680-699
5%
700-719
4%
720-739
3%
740-759
3%
760-779
2%
780-799
2%
800-839
3%
840-879
2%
880-919
2%
920-959
1%
960-999
<1%
1000-1039
<1%
1040-1079
<1%
1080-1119
<1%
1120-1159
<1%
1160-1199
<1%
1200-1239
<1%
1240-1279
<1%
1280-1319
<1%
1320-1359
<1%
1360-1399
<1%
1400-1439
<1%
1440-1479
<1%
1480-1519
<1%
1520-1559
<1%
1560-1599
<1%
1600-1679
<1%
1680-1759
<1%
1760-1839
<1%
1840-1919
<1%
1920-1999
<1%
2000+
<1%
600-619 7.5%
560-579 7.4%
660-679 6.9%
520-539 6.8%
$2,160,727 Vol.
$2,160,727 Vol.
160-179
<1%
180-199
<1%
200-219
<1%
220-239
<1%
240-259
<1%
260-279
<1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
1%
400-419
1%
420-439
1%
440-459
3%
460-479
3%
480-499
4%
500-519
6%
520-539
7%
540-559
6%
560-579
7%
580-599
7%
600-619
8%
620-639
6%
640-659
6%
660-679
7%
680-699
5%
700-719
4%
720-739
3%
740-759
3%
760-779
2%
780-799
2%
800-839
3%
840-879
2%
880-919
2%
920-959
1%
960-999
<1%
1000-1039
<1%
1040-1079
<1%
1080-1119
<1%
1120-1159
<1%
1160-1199
<1%
1200-1239
<1%
1240-1279
<1%
1280-1319
<1%
1320-1359
<1%
1360-1399
<1%
1400-1439
<1%
1440-1479
<1%
1480-1519
<1%
1520-1559
<1%
1560-1599
<1%
1600-1679
<1%
1680-1759
<1%
1760-1839
<1%
1840-1919
<1%
1920-1999
<1%
2000+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters around 500-700 total posts for Elon Musk's May 2026 activity, with top bins like 600-619 (7.5%) and 560-579 (7.3%) reflecting a projected pace from roughly 222 posts through May 13—averaging 17 per day amid steady engagement on culture-war topics, memes, and travel updates like his Beijing trip. This moderated volume, down from historical peaks of 30-40 daily during controversies, drives the tight race, as traders weigh baseline consistency against upside risks from viral threads, Tesla/xAI announcements, or political flare-ups that could spike output. Key swing factors include mid-month business catalysts or lulls during international commitments, underscoring prediction markets' crowd wisdom in capturing Elon's unpredictable social media rhythms.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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