The Trump administration's sustained maximum-pressure approach on Cuba, including Executive Order 14380 in January 2026 and EO 14404 in May, has blocked oil shipments and imposed secondary sanctions plus tariffs on third-country suppliers. Fresh designations in early June targeting Cuba's state oil company Unión Cuba-Petróleo and additional regime-linked entities have further tightened restrictions rather than easing them. Ongoing diplomatic contacts remain conditioned on Cuban political reforms, with no public signals of imminent sanction relief ahead of the June 30 deadline. Trader consensus at 92.5% against an announcement reflects this consistent policy trajectory and absence of offsetting developments in recent weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$46,658 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
21%
December 31
47%
$46,658 Vol.
September 30
$5 Vol.
21%
December 31
$0 Vol.
47%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the United States federal government officially announces any reduction, suspension, removal, or similar relief for U.S. sanctions related to the sale or transport of oil, fuel or other petroleum products to Cuba between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly indicate that U.S. restrictions, sanctions, penalties, or threats of penalties related to oil or fuel trade with Cuba will be suspended, reduced, removed, or otherwise substantively relaxed.
An announcement that the United States will not impose tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba will qualify.
Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced relief goes into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Trump administration's sustained maximum-pressure approach on Cuba, including Executive Order 14380 in January 2026 and EO 14404 in May, has blocked oil shipments and imposed secondary sanctions plus tariffs on third-country suppliers. Fresh designations in early June targeting Cuba's state oil company Unión Cuba-Petróleo and additional regime-linked entities have further tightened restrictions rather than easing them. Ongoing diplomatic contacts remain conditioned on Cuban political reforms, with no public signals of imminent sanction relief ahead of the June 30 deadline. Trader consensus at 92.5% against an announcement reflects this consistent policy trajectory and absence of offsetting developments in recent weeks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the United States federal government officially announces any reduction, suspension, removal, or similar relief for U.S. sanctions related to the sale or transport of oil, fuel or other petroleum products to Cuba between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly indicate that U.S. restrictions, sanctions, penalties, or threats of penalties related to oil or fuel trade with Cuba will be suspended, reduced, removed, or otherwise substantively relaxed.
An announcement that the United States will not impose tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba will qualify.
Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced relief goes into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly indicate that U.S. restrictions, sanctions, penalties, or threats of penalties related to oil or fuel trade with Cuba will be suspended, reduced, removed, or otherwise substantively relaxed.
An announcement that the United States will not impose tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba will qualify.
Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced relief goes into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 22, 2026, 5:54 PM ET
Volume
$46,658End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 22, 2026, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the United States federal government officially announces any reduction, suspension, removal, or similar relief for U.S. sanctions related to the sale or transport of oil, fuel or other petroleum products to Cuba between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly indicate that U.S. restrictions, sanctions, penalties, or threats of penalties related to oil or fuel trade with Cuba will be suspended, reduced, removed, or otherwise substantively relaxed.
An announcement that the United States will not impose tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba will qualify.
Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced relief goes into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Trump administration's sustained maximum-pressure approach on Cuba, including Executive Order 14380 in January 2026 and EO 14404 in May, has blocked oil shipments and imposed secondary sanctions plus tariffs on third-country suppliers. Fresh designations in early June targeting Cuba's state oil company Unión Cuba-Petróleo and additional regime-linked entities have further tightened restrictions rather than easing them. Ongoing diplomatic contacts remain conditioned on Cuban political reforms, with no public signals of imminent sanction relief ahead of the June 30 deadline. Trader consensus at 92.5% against an announcement reflects this consistent policy trajectory and absence of offsetting developments in recent weeks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the United States federal government officially announces any reduction, suspension, removal, or similar relief for U.S. sanctions related to the sale or transport of oil, fuel or other petroleum products to Cuba between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly indicate that U.S. restrictions, sanctions, penalties, or threats of penalties related to oil or fuel trade with Cuba will be suspended, reduced, removed, or otherwise substantively relaxed.
An announcement that the United States will not impose tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba will qualify.
Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced relief goes into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly indicate that U.S. restrictions, sanctions, penalties, or threats of penalties related to oil or fuel trade with Cuba will be suspended, reduced, removed, or otherwise substantively relaxed.
An announcement that the United States will not impose tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba will qualify.
Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced relief goes into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$46,658End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 22, 2026, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Trump administration's sustained maximum-pressure approach on Cuba, including Executive Order 14380 in January 2026 and EO 14404 in May, has blocked oil shipments and imposed secondary sanctions plus tariffs on third-country suppliers. Fresh designations in early June targeting Cuba's state oil company Unión Cuba-Petróleo and additional regime-linked entities have further tightened restrictions rather than easing them. Ongoing diplomatic contacts remain conditioned on Cuban political reforms, with no public signals of imminent sanction relief ahead of the June 30 deadline. Trader consensus at 92.5% against an announcement reflects this consistent policy trajectory and absence of offsetting developments in recent weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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