The official @khamenei_ir account has operated at markedly reduced frequency since Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s death in late February 2026, shifting to archival statements from the martyred leader rather than new commentary. This pattern produced zero posts in the opening days of the prior monitoring window and only isolated shares in early May, aligning trader consensus on sub-five posts for May 19–26 at 67 percent implied probability. Absent scheduled commemorations or fresh regional escalation that would prompt legacy content, the account’s dormancy is expected to persist through the period. Higher bins receive negligible weight because historical spikes occurred only during acute military or nuclear developments now outside the immediate horizon.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedKhamenei # posts May 19 - May 26, 2026?
Khamenei # posts May 19 - May 26, 2026?
5-9 28%
10-14 25%
15-19 <1%
20-24 <1%
NEW
NEW
May 26, 2026
<5
64%
5-9
28%
10-14
25%
15-19
1%
20-24
1%
25-29
1%
30-34
1%
35-39
1%
40-44
1%
45-49
1%
50-54
1%
55-59
1%
60+
1%
5-9 28%
10-14 25%
15-19 <1%
20-24 <1%
NEW
NEW
May 26, 2026
<5
$10 Vol.
64%
5-9
$0 Vol.
28%
10-14
$0 Vol.
25%
15-19
$5 Vol.
1%
20-24
$5 Vol.
1%
25-29
$5 Vol.
1%
30-34
$5 Vol.
1%
35-39
$5 Vol.
1%
40-44
$5 Vol.
1%
45-49
$5 Vol.
1%
50-54
$5 Vol.
1%
55-59
$5 Vol.
1%
60+
$5 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between May 19, 12:00 PM ET and May 26, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.The official @khamenei_ir account has operated at markedly reduced frequency since Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s death in late February 2026, shifting to archival statements from the martyred leader rather than new commentary. This pattern produced zero posts in the opening days of the prior monitoring window and only isolated shares in early May, aligning trader consensus on sub-five posts for May 19–26 at 67 percent implied probability. Absent scheduled commemorations or fresh regional escalation that would prompt legacy content, the account’s dormancy is expected to persist through the period. Higher bins receive negligible weight because historical spikes occurred only during acute military or nuclear developments now outside the immediate horizon.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between May 19, 12:00 PM ET and May 26, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: May 16, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Volume
$60End Date
May 26, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:00 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/khamenei_irThis market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between May 19, 12:00 PM ET and May 26, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.The official @khamenei_ir account has operated at markedly reduced frequency since Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s death in late February 2026, shifting to archival statements from the martyred leader rather than new commentary. This pattern produced zero posts in the opening days of the prior monitoring window and only isolated shares in early May, aligning trader consensus on sub-five posts for May 19–26 at 67 percent implied probability. Absent scheduled commemorations or fresh regional escalation that would prompt legacy content, the account’s dormancy is expected to persist through the period. Higher bins receive negligible weight because historical spikes occurred only during acute military or nuclear developments now outside the immediate horizon.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between May 19, 12:00 PM ET and May 26, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$60End Date
May 26, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:00 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/khamenei_irThe official @khamenei_ir account has operated at markedly reduced frequency since Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s death in late February 2026, shifting to archival statements from the martyred leader rather than new commentary. This pattern produced zero posts in the opening days of the prior monitoring window and only isolated shares in early May, aligning trader consensus on sub-five posts for May 19–26 at 67 percent implied probability. Absent scheduled commemorations or fresh regional escalation that would prompt legacy content, the account’s dormancy is expected to persist through the period. Higher bins receive negligible weight because historical spikes occurred only during acute military or nuclear developments now outside the immediate horizon.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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