Trader consensus favors fewer than five posts by @khamenei_ir during May 12-19 at 55.5%, reflecting the account's subdued activity since Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death in late February 2026 airstrikes on his Tehran compound, amid Iran-U.S.-Israel escalations. The official channel, now honoring the "martyred Leader," shares archival statements sparingly—typically 1-2 weekly, as seen with early May posts on May 4 and 5 condemning Zionist normalization and U.S. decline. Only one post so far in the window, a May 15 Family Day quote from 2019, sustains low expectations. Elevated odds on 15-19 (29.8%) and 5-9 (26%) hedge against potential bursts tied to diplomatic signals or leadership transitions, but recent dormancy dominates sentiment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedKhamenei # posts May 12 - May 19, 2026?
Khamenei # posts May 12 - May 19, 2026?
10-14 22.2%
5-9 20%
30-34 1.0%
35-39 <1%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
<5
60%
5-9
20%
10-14
22%
15-19
27%
20-24
15%
25-29
1%
30-34
1%
35-39
1%
40-44
<1%
45-49
1%
50-54
1%
55-59
1%
60+
<1%
10-14 22.2%
5-9 20%
30-34 1.0%
35-39 <1%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
<5
$1,570 Vol.
60%
5-9
$1,483 Vol.
20%
10-14
$437 Vol.
22%
15-19
$888 Vol.
27%
20-24
$615 Vol.
15%
25-29
$331 Vol.
1%
30-34
$388 Vol.
1%
35-39
$373 Vol.
1%
40-44
$506 Vol.
<1%
45-49
$414 Vol.
1%
50-54
$406 Vol.
1%
55-59
$572 Vol.
1%
60+
$633 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between May 12, 12:00 PM ET and May 19, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus favors fewer than five posts by @khamenei_ir during May 12-19 at 55.5%, reflecting the account's subdued activity since Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death in late February 2026 airstrikes on his Tehran compound, amid Iran-U.S.-Israel escalations. The official channel, now honoring the "martyred Leader," shares archival statements sparingly—typically 1-2 weekly, as seen with early May posts on May 4 and 5 condemning Zionist normalization and U.S. decline. Only one post so far in the window, a May 15 Family Day quote from 2019, sustains low expectations. Elevated odds on 15-19 (29.8%) and 5-9 (26%) hedge against potential bursts tied to diplomatic signals or leadership transitions, but recent dormancy dominates sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between May 12, 12:00 PM ET and May 19, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: May 9, 2026, 3:07 AM ET
Volume
$8,616End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
May 9, 2026, 3:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/khamenei_irResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between May 12, 12:00 PM ET and May 19, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus favors fewer than five posts by @khamenei_ir during May 12-19 at 55.5%, reflecting the account's subdued activity since Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death in late February 2026 airstrikes on his Tehran compound, amid Iran-U.S.-Israel escalations. The official channel, now honoring the "martyred Leader," shares archival statements sparingly—typically 1-2 weekly, as seen with early May posts on May 4 and 5 condemning Zionist normalization and U.S. decline. Only one post so far in the window, a May 15 Family Day quote from 2019, sustains low expectations. Elevated odds on 15-19 (29.8%) and 5-9 (26%) hedge against potential bursts tied to diplomatic signals or leadership transitions, but recent dormancy dominates sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between May 12, 12:00 PM ET and May 19, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$8,616End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
May 9, 2026, 3:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/khamenei_irResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors fewer than five posts by @khamenei_ir during May 12-19 at 55.5%, reflecting the account's subdued activity since Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death in late February 2026 airstrikes on his Tehran compound, amid Iran-U.S.-Israel escalations. The official channel, now honoring the "martyred Leader," shares archival statements sparingly—typically 1-2 weekly, as seen with early May posts on May 4 and 5 condemning Zionist normalization and U.S. decline. Only one post so far in the window, a May 15 Family Day quote from 2019, sustains low expectations. Elevated odds on 15-19 (29.8%) and 5-9 (26%) hedge against potential bursts tied to diplomatic signals or leadership transitions, but recent dormancy dominates sentiment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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