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icon for No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30?
Politics·UK

No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30?

icon for No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30?
Politics·UK

No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30?

16% chance
Polymarket

$11,323 Vol.

16% chance
Polymarket

$11,323 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a motion of no-confidence against the sitting government is voted upon in the House of Commons of the United Kingdom by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on whether a motion of no confidence is voted upon in the specified timeframe. Whether the motion is passed will not affect this market’s resolution. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom and a consensus of credible reporting. Labour's landslide 2024 election majority of 174 seats in the House of Commons underpins trader consensus at 82.5% against a no-confidence vote targeting Prime Minister Keir Starmer by June 30, despite heightened pressure from recent dismal local election results sparking over 40 MPs to demand his resignation. The SNP announced May 13 it would table such a motion via parliamentary amendment unless Starmer quits, while Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch signaled readiness to collaborate with rebels; however, no motion has been formally scheduled, internal Labour divisions lack the scale for procedural disruption, and Starmer has secured cabinet backing amid warnings of party chaos from a leadership challenge. Absent a snap escalation or mass defection, conventions favor stability over an early vote.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a motion of no-confidence against the sitting government is voted upon in the House of Commons of the United Kingdom by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on whether a motion of no confidence is voted upon in the specified timeframe. Whether the motion is passed will not affect this market’s resolution.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$11,323
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 21, 2026, 2:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a motion of no-confidence against the sitting government is voted upon in the House of Commons of the United Kingdom by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on whether a motion of no confidence is voted upon in the specified timeframe. Whether the motion is passed will not affect this market’s resolution. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a motion of no-confidence against the sitting government is voted upon in the House of Commons of the United Kingdom by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on whether a motion of no confidence is voted upon in the specified timeframe. Whether the motion is passed will not affect this market’s resolution. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom and a consensus of credible reporting. Labour's landslide 2024 election majority of 174 seats in the House of Commons underpins trader consensus at 82.5% against a no-confidence vote targeting Prime Minister Keir Starmer by June 30, despite heightened pressure from recent dismal local election results sparking over 40 MPs to demand his resignation. The SNP announced May 13 it would table such a motion via parliamentary amendment unless Starmer quits, while Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch signaled readiness to collaborate with rebels; however, no motion has been formally scheduled, internal Labour divisions lack the scale for procedural disruption, and Starmer has secured cabinet backing amid warnings of party chaos from a leadership challenge. Absent a snap escalation or mass defection, conventions favor stability over an early vote.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a motion of no-confidence against the sitting government is voted upon in the House of Commons of the United Kingdom by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on whether a motion of no confidence is voted upon in the specified timeframe. Whether the motion is passed will not affect this market’s resolution.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$11,323
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 21, 2026, 2:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a motion of no-confidence against the sitting government is voted upon in the House of Commons of the United Kingdom by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on whether a motion of no confidence is voted upon in the specified timeframe. Whether the motion is passed will not affect this market’s resolution. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom and a consensus of credible reporting.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 16% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 16¢, the market collectively assigns a 16% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30?" has generated $11.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 21, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30?" is 16% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 16% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.