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icon for Will the House pass another reconciliation bill by...?
Politics·Congress

Will the House pass another reconciliation bill by...?

icon for Will the House pass another reconciliation bill by...?
Politics·Congress

Will the House pass another reconciliation bill by...?

$16,237 Vol.

Sep 30, 2026
Polymarket

$16,237 Vol.

Polymarket

September 30

$1,038 Vol.

3%

December 31

$12,914 Vol.

22%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes a reconciliation bill between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.House Republicans advanced a budget resolution in July 2026 for a potential third reconciliation package focused on defense funding tied to Iran-related needs, agriculture aid, and election measures, passing 216-214. The Senate has yet to adopt a matching resolution, with Majority Leader Thune delaying action until after passage of a continuing resolution to fund the government through September 30. Internal GOP divisions over spending offsets, use of reconciliation versus regular appropriations, and a crowded fall calendar ahead of midterms have slowed momentum. Senate Republicans remain split on advancing the measure, while House committees received instructions with a September 11 deadline for recommendations. Any final bill would still require Senate reconciliation instructions, committee drafting, and floor votes in both chambers.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes a reconciliation bill between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes a reconciliation bill between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$16,237
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jun 26, 2026, 3:30 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes a reconciliation bill between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.House Republicans advanced a budget resolution in July 2026 for a potential third reconciliation package focused on defense funding tied to Iran-related needs, agriculture aid, and election measures, passing 216-214. The Senate has yet to adopt a matching resolution, with Majority Leader Thune delaying action until after passage of a continuing resolution to fund the government through September 30. Internal GOP divisions over spending offsets, use of reconciliation versus regular appropriations, and a crowded fall calendar ahead of midterms have slowed momentum. Senate Republicans remain split on advancing the measure, while House committees received instructions with a September 11 deadline for recommendations. Any final bill would still require Senate reconciliation instructions, committee drafting, and floor votes in both chambers.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes a reconciliation bill between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes a reconciliation bill between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$16,237
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jun 26, 2026, 3:30 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will the House pass another reconciliation bill by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31" at 22%, followed by "September 30" at 3%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 22¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 22% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will the House pass another reconciliation bill by...?" has generated $16.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 26, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will the House pass another reconciliation bill by...?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Will the House pass another reconciliation bill by...?" is "December 31" at 22%, meaning the market assigns a 22% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "September 30" at 3%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Will the House pass another reconciliation bill by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.