Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 86.5% implied probability that Anthropic will command a higher valuation than OpenAI by year-end 2026, driven by Anthropic's recent surge past OpenAI on secondary markets—trading at $900 billion-plus versus OpenAI's cooling $850 billion mark—as of early May. This shift stems from Anthropic's February Series G raise at $380 billion post-money, followed by April commitments like Google's up-to-$40 billion infusion at a $350 billion base and Amazon's expanded stake now worth over $70 billion, alongside $30 billion annualized recurring revenue from enterprise Claude adoption. OpenAI's March $852 billion round, backed by Microsoft, has seen flat secondary demand amid revenue-sharing caps. Key catalysts include Anthropic's summer mega-round targeting near-$1 trillion and competing model releases like Claude Opus 4.7 versus GPT-5.5, with resolution hinging on official funding closes and tender offers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$56,998 Vol.
$56,998 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$56,998 Vol.
$56,998 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at any point, Anthropic's most recent public or private valuation is greater than OpenAI's most recent public or private valuation, by December 31, 2026 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Private valuation refers to the valuation of a company as established in a completed funding round. Qualifying private valuations must be explicitly confirmed by the company whose value is observed, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
Public valuation refers to the company’s market capitalization (number of shares outstanding multiplied by the current share price).
The primary resolution source will be official communications from Anthropic and OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 86.5% implied probability that Anthropic will command a higher valuation than OpenAI by year-end 2026, driven by Anthropic's recent surge past OpenAI on secondary markets—trading at $900 billion-plus versus OpenAI's cooling $850 billion mark—as of early May. This shift stems from Anthropic's February Series G raise at $380 billion post-money, followed by April commitments like Google's up-to-$40 billion infusion at a $350 billion base and Amazon's expanded stake now worth over $70 billion, alongside $30 billion annualized recurring revenue from enterprise Claude adoption. OpenAI's March $852 billion round, backed by Microsoft, has seen flat secondary demand amid revenue-sharing caps. Key catalysts include Anthropic's summer mega-round targeting near-$1 trillion and competing model releases like Claude Opus 4.7 versus GPT-5.5, with resolution hinging on official funding closes and tender offers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at any point, Anthropic's most recent public or private valuation is greater than OpenAI's most recent public or private valuation, by December 31, 2026 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Private valuation refers to the valuation of a company as established in a completed funding round. Qualifying private valuations must be explicitly confirmed by the company whose value is observed, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
Public valuation refers to the company’s market capitalization (number of shares outstanding multiplied by the current share price).
The primary resolution source will be official communications from Anthropic and OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Private valuation refers to the valuation of a company as established in a completed funding round. Qualifying private valuations must be explicitly confirmed by the company whose value is observed, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
Public valuation refers to the company’s market capitalization (number of shares outstanding multiplied by the current share price).
The primary resolution source will be official communications from Anthropic and OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 14, 2026, 4:55 PM ET
Volume
$56,998End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 14, 2026, 4:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at any point, Anthropic's most recent public or private valuation is greater than OpenAI's most recent public or private valuation, by December 31, 2026 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Private valuation refers to the valuation of a company as established in a completed funding round. Qualifying private valuations must be explicitly confirmed by the company whose value is observed, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
Public valuation refers to the company’s market capitalization (number of shares outstanding multiplied by the current share price).
The primary resolution source will be official communications from Anthropic and OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 86.5% implied probability that Anthropic will command a higher valuation than OpenAI by year-end 2026, driven by Anthropic's recent surge past OpenAI on secondary markets—trading at $900 billion-plus versus OpenAI's cooling $850 billion mark—as of early May. This shift stems from Anthropic's February Series G raise at $380 billion post-money, followed by April commitments like Google's up-to-$40 billion infusion at a $350 billion base and Amazon's expanded stake now worth over $70 billion, alongside $30 billion annualized recurring revenue from enterprise Claude adoption. OpenAI's March $852 billion round, backed by Microsoft, has seen flat secondary demand amid revenue-sharing caps. Key catalysts include Anthropic's summer mega-round targeting near-$1 trillion and competing model releases like Claude Opus 4.7 versus GPT-5.5, with resolution hinging on official funding closes and tender offers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at any point, Anthropic's most recent public or private valuation is greater than OpenAI's most recent public or private valuation, by December 31, 2026 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Private valuation refers to the valuation of a company as established in a completed funding round. Qualifying private valuations must be explicitly confirmed by the company whose value is observed, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
Public valuation refers to the company’s market capitalization (number of shares outstanding multiplied by the current share price).
The primary resolution source will be official communications from Anthropic and OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Private valuation refers to the valuation of a company as established in a completed funding round. Qualifying private valuations must be explicitly confirmed by the company whose value is observed, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
Public valuation refers to the company’s market capitalization (number of shares outstanding multiplied by the current share price).
The primary resolution source will be official communications from Anthropic and OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$56,998End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 14, 2026, 4:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 86.5% implied probability that Anthropic will command a higher valuation than OpenAI by year-end 2026, driven by Anthropic's recent surge past OpenAI on secondary markets—trading at $900 billion-plus versus OpenAI's cooling $850 billion mark—as of early May. This shift stems from Anthropic's February Series G raise at $380 billion post-money, followed by April commitments like Google's up-to-$40 billion infusion at a $350 billion base and Amazon's expanded stake now worth over $70 billion, alongside $30 billion annualized recurring revenue from enterprise Claude adoption. OpenAI's March $852 billion round, backed by Microsoft, has seen flat secondary demand amid revenue-sharing caps. Key catalysts include Anthropic's summer mega-round targeting near-$1 trillion and competing model releases like Claude Opus 4.7 versus GPT-5.5, with resolution hinging on official funding closes and tender offers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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