Trump's second-term Cabinet appointees and Vice President Vance hold the decisive role in any 25th Amendment invocation, requiring their majority declaration of incapacity followed by congressional affirmation. Recent Democratic calls and advocacy-group statements in April 2026 tied to Iran-related military actions produced no internal administration movement. Traders assign the 96.8% "No" probability to these institutional hurdles and sustained alignment within the executive branch. A sudden documented medical event or unprecedented Cabinet-level reversal remains the narrow path that could alter the outcome before 2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3% chance
$48,651 Vol.
$48,651 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
3% chance
$48,651 Vol.
$48,651 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is formally removed from the office of the President of the United States by means of the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the Vice President becomes Acting President via the process outlined in Section 3 of the 25th Amendment, it will not effect the resolution of this market. Only Trump’s removal from office via the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
If Trump ceases to be POTUS before this market's expiration date for any other reason, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government.Trump's second-term Cabinet appointees and Vice President Vance hold the decisive role in any 25th Amendment invocation, requiring their majority declaration of incapacity followed by congressional affirmation. Recent Democratic calls and advocacy-group statements in April 2026 tied to Iran-related military actions produced no internal administration movement. Traders assign the 96.8% "No" probability to these institutional hurdles and sustained alignment within the executive branch. A sudden documented medical event or unprecedented Cabinet-level reversal remains the narrow path that could alter the outcome before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is formally removed from the office of the President of the United States by means of the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the Vice President becomes Acting President via the process outlined in Section 3 of the 25th Amendment, it will not effect the resolution of this market. Only Trump’s removal from office via the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
If Trump ceases to be POTUS before this market's expiration date for any other reason, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government.
If the Vice President becomes Acting President via the process outlined in Section 3 of the 25th Amendment, it will not effect the resolution of this market. Only Trump’s removal from office via the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
If Trump ceases to be POTUS before this market's expiration date for any other reason, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 1:15 PM ET
Volume
$48,651End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is formally removed from the office of the President of the United States by means of the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the Vice President becomes Acting President via the process outlined in Section 3 of the 25th Amendment, it will not effect the resolution of this market. Only Trump’s removal from office via the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
If Trump ceases to be POTUS before this market's expiration date for any other reason, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government.Trump's second-term Cabinet appointees and Vice President Vance hold the decisive role in any 25th Amendment invocation, requiring their majority declaration of incapacity followed by congressional affirmation. Recent Democratic calls and advocacy-group statements in April 2026 tied to Iran-related military actions produced no internal administration movement. Traders assign the 96.8% "No" probability to these institutional hurdles and sustained alignment within the executive branch. A sudden documented medical event or unprecedented Cabinet-level reversal remains the narrow path that could alter the outcome before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is formally removed from the office of the President of the United States by means of the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the Vice President becomes Acting President via the process outlined in Section 3 of the 25th Amendment, it will not effect the resolution of this market. Only Trump’s removal from office via the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
If Trump ceases to be POTUS before this market's expiration date for any other reason, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government.
If the Vice President becomes Acting President via the process outlined in Section 3 of the 25th Amendment, it will not effect the resolution of this market. Only Trump’s removal from office via the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
If Trump ceases to be POTUS before this market's expiration date for any other reason, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government.
Volume
$48,651End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trump's second-term Cabinet appointees and Vice President Vance hold the decisive role in any 25th Amendment invocation, requiring their majority declaration of incapacity followed by congressional affirmation. Recent Democratic calls and advocacy-group statements in April 2026 tied to Iran-related military actions produced no internal administration movement. Traders assign the 96.8% "No" probability to these institutional hurdles and sustained alignment within the executive branch. A sudden documented medical event or unprecedented Cabinet-level reversal remains the narrow path that could alter the outcome before 2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated


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