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Massachusetts Democratic Senate Primary Winner

icon for Massachusetts Democratic Senate Primary Winner

Massachusetts Democratic Senate Primary Winner

Ed Markey 71%

Seth Moulton 25%

Ayanna Pressley <1%

Alexander Rikleen <1%

Polymarket

$12,969 Vol.

Ed Markey 71%

Seth Moulton 25%

Ayanna Pressley <1%

Alexander Rikleen <1%

Polymarket

$12,969 Vol.

Ed Markey

$5,940 Vol.

71%

Seth Moulton

$4,065 Vol.

25%

Ayanna Pressley

$1,881 Vol.

1%

Alexander Rikleen

$1,084 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Massachusetts. If no 2026 Massachusetts Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Massachusetts Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Incumbent Sen. Ed Markey leads trader consensus at 70.5% implied probability for Massachusetts' Democratic Senate primary on September 1, buoyed by strong name recognition, progressive backing, and historical incumbency advantages in low-turnout primaries. Rep. Seth Moulton trails at 24.5% after gaining ground in the latest Emerson College poll (May 3-4), which shows Markey ahead 37%-32% among likely voters with 29% undecided—narrowing from prior double-digit leads amid Moulton's pitch for generational change and moderate appeal. Reps. Ayanna Pressley and challenger Alex Rikleen register negligible support below 1%, reflecting limited momentum. High undecideds signal volatility ahead of summer campaigning.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Massachusetts.

If no 2026 Massachusetts Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Massachusetts Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$12,969
End Date
Sep 1, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 3:26 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Massachusetts. If no 2026 Massachusetts Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Massachusetts Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Massachusetts. If no 2026 Massachusetts Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Massachusetts Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Incumbent Sen. Ed Markey leads trader consensus at 70.5% implied probability for Massachusetts' Democratic Senate primary on September 1, buoyed by strong name recognition, progressive backing, and historical incumbency advantages in low-turnout primaries. Rep. Seth Moulton trails at 24.5% after gaining ground in the latest Emerson College poll (May 3-4), which shows Markey ahead 37%-32% among likely voters with 29% undecided—narrowing from prior double-digit leads amid Moulton's pitch for generational change and moderate appeal. Reps. Ayanna Pressley and challenger Alex Rikleen register negligible support below 1%, reflecting limited momentum. High undecideds signal volatility ahead of summer campaigning.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Massachusetts.

If no 2026 Massachusetts Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Massachusetts Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$12,969
End Date
Sep 1, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 3:26 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Massachusetts. If no 2026 Massachusetts Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Massachusetts Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Massachusetts Democratic Senate Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Ed Markey" at 71%, followed by "Seth Moulton" at 25%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 71¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 71% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Massachusetts Democratic Senate Primary Winner" has generated $13K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 2, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Massachusetts Democratic Senate Primary Winner," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Massachusetts Democratic Senate Primary Winner" is "Ed Markey" at 71%, meaning the market assigns a 71% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Seth Moulton" at 25%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Massachusetts Democratic Senate Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.