Incumbent Sen. Ed Markey leads trader consensus at 70.5% implied probability for Massachusetts' Democratic Senate primary on September 1, buoyed by strong name recognition, progressive backing, and historical incumbency advantages in low-turnout primaries. Rep. Seth Moulton trails at 24.5% after gaining ground in the latest Emerson College poll (May 3-4), which shows Markey ahead 37%-32% among likely voters with 29% undecided—narrowing from prior double-digit leads amid Moulton's pitch for generational change and moderate appeal. Reps. Ayanna Pressley and challenger Alex Rikleen register negligible support below 1%, reflecting limited momentum. High undecideds signal volatility ahead of summer campaigning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedEd Markey 71%
Seth Moulton 25%
Ayanna Pressley <1%
Alexander Rikleen <1%
$12,969 Vol.
$12,969 Vol.
Ed Markey
71%
Seth Moulton
25%
Ayanna Pressley
1%
Alexander Rikleen
1%
Ed Markey 71%
Seth Moulton 25%
Ayanna Pressley <1%
Alexander Rikleen <1%
$12,969 Vol.
$12,969 Vol.
Ed Markey
71%
Seth Moulton
25%
Ayanna Pressley
1%
Alexander Rikleen
1%
If no 2026 Massachusetts Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Massachusetts Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Market Opened: Dec 2, 2025, 3:26 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no 2026 Massachusetts Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Massachusetts Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Sen. Ed Markey leads trader consensus at 70.5% implied probability for Massachusetts' Democratic Senate primary on September 1, buoyed by strong name recognition, progressive backing, and historical incumbency advantages in low-turnout primaries. Rep. Seth Moulton trails at 24.5% after gaining ground in the latest Emerson College poll (May 3-4), which shows Markey ahead 37%-32% among likely voters with 29% undecided—narrowing from prior double-digit leads amid Moulton's pitch for generational change and moderate appeal. Reps. Ayanna Pressley and challenger Alex Rikleen register negligible support below 1%, reflecting limited momentum. High undecideds signal volatility ahead of summer campaigning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated



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