Trader consensus heavily favors Adam Hamilton at 86% implied probability to win the Kansas Democratic U.S. Senate primary on August 4, driven by his late-April announcement as the founding pastor of the nation's largest United Methodist church, followed by a rapid $1 million fundraising haul in the campaign's first days. This surge in a crowded field of over 10 candidates—previously led in early fundraising by state Sen. Patrick Schmidt, now at 5%—has solidified Hamilton's position as the moderate frontrunner appealing to independents and crossing aisles in the deep-red state. Absent primary polls, traders weigh his high name recognition and resources against long-shot challengers like Sandy Spidel Neumann and Sharice Davids, with late scandals or endorsements as potential shifters before the vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAdam Hamilton 86%
Patrick Schmidt 4.9%
Sandy Spidel Neumann 3.3%
Sharice Davids 1.3%
$128,331 Vol.
$128,331 Vol.
Adam Hamilton
86%
Patrick Schmidt
5%
Sandy Spidel Neumann
3%
Sharice Davids
1%
Kevin Latz
1%
Christy Davis
<1%
Damon Anderson
<1%
Michael Soetaert
<1%
Anne Parelkar
<1%
Erik Murray
<1%
Jason Hart
<1%
Noah Taylor
<1%
Adam Hamilton 86%
Patrick Schmidt 4.9%
Sandy Spidel Neumann 3.3%
Sharice Davids 1.3%
$128,331 Vol.
$128,331 Vol.
Adam Hamilton
86%
Patrick Schmidt
5%
Sandy Spidel Neumann
3%
Sharice Davids
1%
Kevin Latz
1%
Christy Davis
<1%
Damon Anderson
<1%
Michael Soetaert
<1%
Anne Parelkar
<1%
Erik Murray
<1%
Jason Hart
<1%
Noah Taylor
<1%
If no 2026 Kansas Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Kansas Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Market Opened: Nov 26, 2025, 5:11 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no 2026 Kansas Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Kansas Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors Adam Hamilton at 86% implied probability to win the Kansas Democratic U.S. Senate primary on August 4, driven by his late-April announcement as the founding pastor of the nation's largest United Methodist church, followed by a rapid $1 million fundraising haul in the campaign's first days. This surge in a crowded field of over 10 candidates—previously led in early fundraising by state Sen. Patrick Schmidt, now at 5%—has solidified Hamilton's position as the moderate frontrunner appealing to independents and crossing aisles in the deep-red state. Absent primary polls, traders weigh his high name recognition and resources against long-shot challengers like Sandy Spidel Neumann and Sharice Davids, with late scandals or endorsements as potential shifters before the vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated



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