State Senator David Brock Smith's 60.5% implied probability as Oregon Republican Senate primary frontrunner stems from key endorsements by GOP elected leaders, including Senate colleagues and top gubernatorial candidates, alongside superior fundraising totaling $48,000 raised and $32,000 cash on hand as of late April—far outpacing Jo Rae Perkins' $9,000 receipts. With ballots mailed April 29 for the May 19 vote-by-mail primary against incumbent Sen. Jeff Merkley, Smith's legislative experience and party unity signal trader consensus for a unified ticket in this low-turnout contest. Perkins holds 31% on name recognition from her 2020 nomination but trails amid past general election losses, while others lag without resources or visibility.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedDavid Brock Smith 60.9%
Jo Rae Perkins 31%
Russell McAlmond 1.8%
Joe Johnson 1.5%
$89,027 Vol.
$89,027 Vol.
David Brock Smith
61%
Jo Rae Perkins
31%
Russell McAlmond
2%
Joe Johnson
2%
David Burch
1%
Deborah C. Brown
1%
Tim Skelton
1%
Douglas T. Muck Jr.
<1%
Brent Barker
<1%
David Brock Smith 60.9%
Jo Rae Perkins 31%
Russell McAlmond 1.8%
Joe Johnson 1.5%
$89,027 Vol.
$89,027 Vol.
David Brock Smith
61%
Jo Rae Perkins
31%
Russell McAlmond
2%
Joe Johnson
2%
David Burch
1%
Deborah C. Brown
1%
Tim Skelton
1%
Douglas T. Muck Jr.
<1%
Brent Barker
<1%
If no 2026 Oregon Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oregon Republican Party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Market Opened: Dec 15, 2025, 8:07 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no 2026 Oregon Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oregon Republican Party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...State Senator David Brock Smith's 60.5% implied probability as Oregon Republican Senate primary frontrunner stems from key endorsements by GOP elected leaders, including Senate colleagues and top gubernatorial candidates, alongside superior fundraising totaling $48,000 raised and $32,000 cash on hand as of late April—far outpacing Jo Rae Perkins' $9,000 receipts. With ballots mailed April 29 for the May 19 vote-by-mail primary against incumbent Sen. Jeff Merkley, Smith's legislative experience and party unity signal trader consensus for a unified ticket in this low-turnout contest. Perkins holds 31% on name recognition from her 2020 nomination but trails amid past general election losses, while others lag without resources or visibility.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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