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Politics·Primaries

Oregon Republican Senate Primary Winner

icon for Oregon Republican Senate Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

Oregon Republican Senate Primary Winner

David Brock Smith 63.9%

Jo Rae Perkins 31%

Russell McAlmond 1.8%

Joe Johnson 1.5%

Polymarket

$89,027 Vol.

David Brock Smith 63.9%

Jo Rae Perkins 31%

Russell McAlmond 1.8%

Joe Johnson 1.5%

Polymarket

$89,027 Vol.

David Brock Smith

$4,310 Vol.

64%

Jo Rae Perkins

$15,431 Vol.

31%

Russell McAlmond

$14,566 Vol.

2%

Joe Johnson

$10,443 Vol.

2%

David Burch

$23,134 Vol.

1%

Deborah C. Brown

$2,850 Vol.

1%

Tim Skelton

$8,995 Vol.

1%

Brent Barker

$2,446 Vol.

<1%

Douglas T. Muck Jr.

$6,852 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Oregon. If no 2026 Oregon Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oregon Republican Party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.**State Sen. David Brock Smith's 64.5% implied probability as the frontrunner in the Oregon Republican U.S. Senate primary reflects consolidated establishment support, including endorsements from the top three GOP gubernatorial candidates, the Taxpayers Association, chief petitioners of the No Tax Referendum, and Senate Republican colleagues like Sen. McLane.** As Senate Republican Deputy Leader with fundraising advantages and legislative experience targeting public safety and affordability, he appeals to voters seeking a strong nominee against incumbent Sen. Jeff Merkley. Jo Rae Perkins holds 31% trader consensus from prior statewide name recognition, despite past controversies, while others lag in the nine-candidate field. Ballots mailed April 29 signal rising early voting ahead of the May 19 primary, where turnout among GOP base and final momentum could tip the balance.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Oregon.

If no 2026 Oregon Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oregon Republican Party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$89,027
End Date
May 19, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 15, 2025, 8:07 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Oregon. If no 2026 Oregon Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oregon Republican Party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Oregon. If no 2026 Oregon Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oregon Republican Party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.**State Sen. David Brock Smith's 64.5% implied probability as the frontrunner in the Oregon Republican U.S. Senate primary reflects consolidated establishment support, including endorsements from the top three GOP gubernatorial candidates, the Taxpayers Association, chief petitioners of the No Tax Referendum, and Senate Republican colleagues like Sen. McLane.** As Senate Republican Deputy Leader with fundraising advantages and legislative experience targeting public safety and affordability, he appeals to voters seeking a strong nominee against incumbent Sen. Jeff Merkley. Jo Rae Perkins holds 31% trader consensus from prior statewide name recognition, despite past controversies, while others lag in the nine-candidate field. Ballots mailed April 29 signal rising early voting ahead of the May 19 primary, where turnout among GOP base and final momentum could tip the balance.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Oregon.

If no 2026 Oregon Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oregon Republican Party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$89,027
End Date
May 19, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 15, 2025, 8:07 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Oregon. If no 2026 Oregon Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oregon Republican Party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Oregon Republican Senate Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "David Brock Smith" at 64%, followed by "Jo Rae Perkins" at 31%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 64¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 64% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Oregon Republican Senate Primary Winner" has generated $89K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 16, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Oregon Republican Senate Primary Winner," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Oregon Republican Senate Primary Winner" is "David Brock Smith" at 64%, meaning the market assigns a 64% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Jo Rae Perkins" at 31%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Oregon Republican Senate Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.