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Politics·Primaries

Who will advance from the California Governor primary?

icon for Who will advance from the California Governor primary?
Politics·Primaries

Who will advance from the California Governor primary?

$640,961 Vol.

Jun 2, 2026
Polymarket

$640,961 Vol.

Polymarket

Steve Hilton

$40,413 Vol.

82%

Xavier Becerra

$13,924 Vol.

69%

Tom Steyer

$26,138 Vol.

40%

Matt Mahan

$18,741 Vol.

8%

Ryan Tillman

$1,918 Vol.

7%

Chad Bianco

$30,898 Vol.

7%

Kyle Langford

$11,536 Vol.

6%

Ethan Agarwal

$3,102 Vol.

3%

Dylan Colbert

$14,632 Vol.

10%

Raji Rab

$7,065 Vol.

3%

David Thelen

$949 Vol.

3%

Katie Porter

$9,292 Vol.

2%

Jimmy Parker

$1,433 Vol.

2%

Tony Thurmond

$11,295 Vol.

2%

Nicki Minaj

$3,958 Vol.

2%

Eric Swalwell

$72,051 Vol.

2%

Betty Yee

$4,867 Vol.

2%

Javen Allen

$882 Vol.

2%

Carolina Buhler

$8,733 Vol.

2%

Leo Zacky

$6,232 Vol.

2%

Brandon Jones

$41,466 Vol.

1%

Zoltan Istvan

$12,255 Vol.

1%

Elaine Culotti

$282 Vol.

1%

Derek Grasty

$23,340 Vol.

1%

Sharifah Hardie

$0 Vol.

1%

Leonard Jackson

$3,821 Vol.

1%

Ian Calderon

$113,839 Vol.

1%

Butch Ware

$8,550 Vol.

1%

Sophia Brink

$37,863 Vol.

1%

Nicholas Thompson

$7,072 Vol.

1%

Daniel Mercuri

$10,772 Vol.

1%

David Serpa

$4,924 Vol.

1%

Ramsey Robinson

$4,352 Vol.

1%

Antonio Villaraigosa

$12,370 Vol.

1%

Thunder Parley

$53,572 Vol.

1%

Ché Ahn

$18,423 Vol.

<1%

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.Recent polls, including a Mellman Group survey released within the last day, show Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton tied for the lead in California's top-two gubernatorial primary on June 2, driving trader consensus that both are positioned to advance amid a fragmented field. Becerra's edge stems from his statewide name recognition as former attorney general and HHS secretary, while Trump-backed Hilton gains from GOP enthusiasm and attacks on Democratic divisions featuring Katie Porter, Tom Steyer, and Riverside Sheriff Chad Bianco polling close behind. A May 6 debate highlighted housing costs and the economy—top voter concerns—with 14-20% undecided, leaving room for shifts before early voting peaks. Polymarket traders price Hilton at 84% and Becerra at 69% to advance, reflecting polling trends in this blue state where split Democratic votes could propel a Republican to November.

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California.

This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.”

This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.
Volume
$640,961
End Date
Jun 2, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 4, 2025, 5:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.Recent polls, including a Mellman Group survey released within the last day, show Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton tied for the lead in California's top-two gubernatorial primary on June 2, driving trader consensus that both are positioned to advance amid a fragmented field. Becerra's edge stems from his statewide name recognition as former attorney general and HHS secretary, while Trump-backed Hilton gains from GOP enthusiasm and attacks on Democratic divisions featuring Katie Porter, Tom Steyer, and Riverside Sheriff Chad Bianco polling close behind. A May 6 debate highlighted housing costs and the economy—top voter concerns—with 14-20% undecided, leaving room for shifts before early voting peaks. Polymarket traders price Hilton at 84% and Becerra at 69% to advance, reflecting polling trends in this blue state where split Democratic votes could propel a Republican to November.

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California.

This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.”

This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.
Volume
$640,961
End Date
Jun 2, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 4, 2025, 5:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will advance from the California Governor primary?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Steve Hilton" at 82%, followed by "Xavier Becerra" at 69%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 82¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 82% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Who will advance from the California Governor primary?" has generated $641K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 4, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Who will advance from the California Governor primary?," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will advance from the California Governor primary?" is "Steve Hilton" at 82%, meaning the market assigns a 82% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Xavier Becerra" at 69%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will advance from the California Governor primary?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.