Trader consensus favors Abdul El-Sayed as Michigan Democratic Senate primary frontrunner at 53.5% implied probability, propelled by his surge in the May 1-7 Mitchell Research poll showing 28% support—dominating with 80% among voters under 45—versus Haley Stevens at 18% and Mallory McMorrow at 17%. This momentum stems from progressive appeal on Medicare for All, Bernie Sanders endorsement, and backfiring centrist attacks over associations like Hasan Piker, amid high undecideds in prior surveys. Stevens holds 16.7% buoyed by ex-Sen. Debbie Stabenow's "workhorse" endorsement emphasizing general election strength against GOP Mike Rogers, while McMorrow trails at 26% despite fundraising leads. Escalating attacks over ICE votes, deleted posts, and credentials intensify the three-way race ahead of the August 4 primary for the open seat.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMichigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Abdul El-Sayed 54%
Mallory McMorrow 26%
Haley Stevens 16.6%
Rashida Tlaib <1%
$530,442 Vol.
$530,442 Vol.
Abdul El-Sayed
54%
Mallory McMorrow
26%
Haley Stevens
17%
Rashida Tlaib
<1%
Sarah Anthony
<1%
Kristen McDonald Rivet
<1%
Andy Levin
<1%
Matt Sahr
<1%
Dana Nessel
<1%
Abdul El-Sayed 54%
Mallory McMorrow 26%
Haley Stevens 16.6%
Rashida Tlaib <1%
$530,442 Vol.
$530,442 Vol.
Abdul El-Sayed
54%
Mallory McMorrow
26%
Haley Stevens
17%
Rashida Tlaib
<1%
Sarah Anthony
<1%
Kristen McDonald Rivet
<1%
Andy Levin
<1%
Matt Sahr
<1%
Dana Nessel
<1%
If no 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Michigan Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2025, 3:36 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Michigan Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors Abdul El-Sayed as Michigan Democratic Senate primary frontrunner at 53.5% implied probability, propelled by his surge in the May 1-7 Mitchell Research poll showing 28% support—dominating with 80% among voters under 45—versus Haley Stevens at 18% and Mallory McMorrow at 17%. This momentum stems from progressive appeal on Medicare for All, Bernie Sanders endorsement, and backfiring centrist attacks over associations like Hasan Piker, amid high undecideds in prior surveys. Stevens holds 16.7% buoyed by ex-Sen. Debbie Stabenow's "workhorse" endorsement emphasizing general election strength against GOP Mike Rogers, while McMorrow trails at 26% despite fundraising leads. Escalating attacks over ICE votes, deleted posts, and credentials intensify the three-way race ahead of the August 4 primary for the open seat.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated



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