Traders assign a 97% probability to no Kim Jong Un visit to the United States in 2026 because no diplomatic channel, invitation, or schedule supports such a trip through year-end. The absence of formal US-North Korea relations, ongoing sanctions, and Pyongyang’s continued nuclear and missile activities create structural barriers, while recent Trump administration gestures—such as scaling back joint exercises with South Korea—have not produced reciprocal North Korean commitments or travel plans. Speculation centers on possible third-country meetings during Trump’s November Asia itinerary, but these fall short of a US visit. Late developments that could shift odds include an unanticipated bilateral summit announcement or major policy concession, though none appear imminent given the limited calendar window and entrenched positions on both sides.