Multiple open 2026 gubernatorial seats in competitive states, following recent primaries in Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Kansas, have concentrated trader attention on these contests as the likeliest for the narrowest November margin. Term-limited incumbents and fresh nominees have produced matchups where partisan leans, candidate recruitment, and turnout dynamics point to single-digit spreads without a dominant favorite. Wisconsin’s shift to a lean-Democratic rating and Iowa’s move to toss-up status after primaries underscore ongoing uncertainty, while similar positioning in Ohio and Kansas sustains the spread across top-priced options. Late campaign developments, such as turnout shifts or targeted spending, could separate the field before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOhio 18.6%
Wisconsin 12.6%
Kansas 12.2%
Iowa 11.8%
$11,682 Vol.
$11,682 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Ohio
19%
Wisconsin
13%
Kansas
12%
Iowa
12%
Texas
12%
Alaska
11%
Florida
9%
Georgia
9%
New Hampshire
9%
Nevada
7%
Michigan
5%
Vermont
4%
Oregon
3%
Minnesota
3%
Maine
3%
Colorado
2%
New Mexico
2%
Arizona
2%
Ohio 18.6%
Wisconsin 12.6%
Kansas 12.2%
Iowa 11.8%
$11,682 Vol.
$11,682 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Ohio
$423 Vol.
19%
Wisconsin
$970 Vol.
13%
Kansas
$2,109 Vol.
12%
Iowa
$1,480 Vol.
12%
Texas
$1,569 Vol.
12%
Alaska
$207 Vol.
11%
Florida
$224 Vol.
9%
Georgia
$297 Vol.
9%
New Hampshire
$272 Vol.
9%
Nevada
$2,034 Vol.
7%
Michigan
$329 Vol.
5%
Vermont
$176 Vol.
4%
Oregon
$319 Vol.
3%
Minnesota
$214 Vol.
3%
Maine
$355 Vol.
3%
Colorado
$243 Vol.
2%
New Mexico
$194 Vol.
2%
Arizona
$269 Vol.
2%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Multiple open 2026 gubernatorial seats in competitive states, following recent primaries in Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Kansas, have concentrated trader attention on these contests as the likeliest for the narrowest November margin. Term-limited incumbents and fresh nominees have produced matchups where partisan leans, candidate recruitment, and turnout dynamics point to single-digit spreads without a dominant favorite. Wisconsin’s shift to a lean-Democratic rating and Iowa’s move to toss-up status after primaries underscore ongoing uncertainty, while similar positioning in Ohio and Kansas sustains the spread across top-priced options. Late campaign developments, such as turnout shifts or targeted spending, could separate the field before election day.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 29, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
Volume
$11,682End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Multiple open 2026 gubernatorial seats in competitive states, following recent primaries in Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Kansas, have concentrated trader attention on these contests as the likeliest for the narrowest November margin. Term-limited incumbents and fresh nominees have produced matchups where partisan leans, candidate recruitment, and turnout dynamics point to single-digit spreads without a dominant favorite. Wisconsin’s shift to a lean-Democratic rating and Iowa’s move to toss-up status after primaries underscore ongoing uncertainty, while similar positioning in Ohio and Kansas sustains the spread across top-priced options. Late campaign developments, such as turnout shifts or targeted spending, could separate the field before election day.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$11,682End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Multiple open 2026 gubernatorial seats in competitive states, following recent primaries in Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Kansas, have concentrated trader attention on these contests as the likeliest for the narrowest November margin. Term-limited incumbents and fresh nominees have produced matchups where partisan leans, candidate recruitment, and turnout dynamics point to single-digit spreads without a dominant favorite. Wisconsin’s shift to a lean-Democratic rating and Iowa’s move to toss-up status after primaries underscore ongoing uncertainty, while similar positioning in Ohio and Kansas sustains the spread across top-priced options. Late campaign developments, such as turnout shifts or targeted spending, could separate the field before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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