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Politics·Us Elections

How many Senate and Governor elections will Republicans win in states won by Kamala?

icon for How many Senate and Governor elections will Republicans win in states won by Kamala?
Politics·Us Elections

How many Senate and Governor elections will Republicans win in states won by Kamala?

2 49%

5 45%

6+ 45%

0 45%

Polymarket
NEW

2 49%

5 45%

6+ 45%

0 45%

Polymarket
NEW

0

$0 Vol.

45%

1

$0 Vol.

45%

2

$0 Vol.

49%

3

$0 Vol.

45%

4

$0 Vol.

24%

5

$0 Vol.

45%

6+

$0 Vol.

45%

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of US Senate and Gubernatorial elections won by the Republican Party in the 2026 midterm elections in states that were won by Kamala Harris in the 2024 US Presidential Election. This market will resolve based on the results of all relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. A Senate candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the relevant elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the relevant Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A gubernatorial candidate's party will only be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification. Republicans hold limited opportunities to win Senate or gubernatorial seats in the 2024 Harris-won states, primarily the Maine Senate seat held by Susan Collins, plus governorships in New Hampshire and Vermont. Trader consensus around 2 wins reflects these structural realities, with early 2026 ratings showing Maine as competitive and the New England governorships as Republican-leaning due to incumbency advantages. The close spread to higher outcomes like 5 or 6+ stems from uncertainty over candidate recruitment, primary results, and potential ticket-splitting in a midterm environment. Separation could emerge from shifts in national polling trends, retirement announcements, or late-cycle developments in these low-volume battlegrounds ahead of November.

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of US Senate and Gubernatorial elections won by the Republican Party in the 2026 midterm elections in states that were won by Kamala Harris in the 2024 US Presidential Election.

This market will resolve based on the results of all relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.

A Senate candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the relevant elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the relevant Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

A gubernatorial candidate's party will only be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$0
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 2, 2026, 4:03 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of US Senate and Gubernatorial elections won by the Republican Party in the 2026 midterm elections in states that were won by Kamala Harris in the 2024 US Presidential Election. This market will resolve based on the results of all relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. A Senate candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the relevant elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the relevant Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A gubernatorial candidate's party will only be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of US Senate and Gubernatorial elections won by the Republican Party in the 2026 midterm elections in states that were won by Kamala Harris in the 2024 US Presidential Election. This market will resolve based on the results of all relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. A Senate candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the relevant elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the relevant Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A gubernatorial candidate's party will only be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification. Republicans hold limited opportunities to win Senate or gubernatorial seats in the 2024 Harris-won states, primarily the Maine Senate seat held by Susan Collins, plus governorships in New Hampshire and Vermont. Trader consensus around 2 wins reflects these structural realities, with early 2026 ratings showing Maine as competitive and the New England governorships as Republican-leaning due to incumbency advantages. The close spread to higher outcomes like 5 or 6+ stems from uncertainty over candidate recruitment, primary results, and potential ticket-splitting in a midterm environment. Separation could emerge from shifts in national polling trends, retirement announcements, or late-cycle developments in these low-volume battlegrounds ahead of November.

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of US Senate and Gubernatorial elections won by the Republican Party in the 2026 midterm elections in states that were won by Kamala Harris in the 2024 US Presidential Election.

This market will resolve based on the results of all relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.

A Senate candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the relevant elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the relevant Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

A gubernatorial candidate's party will only be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$0
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 2, 2026, 4:03 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of US Senate and Gubernatorial elections won by the Republican Party in the 2026 midterm elections in states that were won by Kamala Harris in the 2024 US Presidential Election. This market will resolve based on the results of all relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. A Senate candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the relevant elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the relevant Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A gubernatorial candidate's party will only be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"How many Senate and Governor elections will Republicans win in states won by Kamala?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "2" at 49%, followed by "5" at 46%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 49¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 49% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"How many Senate and Governor elections will Republicans win in states won by Kamala?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 2, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

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The current frontrunner for "How many Senate and Governor elections will Republicans win in states won by Kamala?" is "2" at 49%, meaning the market assigns a 49% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "5" at 46%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

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