John Cornyn’s refusal to commit to an endorsement in the 2026 Texas Senate race has kept trader probabilities tightly clustered around multiple outcomes. After losing the Republican primary runoff to Ken Paxton in May, Cornyn publicly criticized Paxton as flawed, declined to fundraise for him, and limited his comments to general support for the Republican ticket. This stance, combined with Paxton’s nomination and the general-election matchup against James Talarico, has left open the possibility of no endorsement, a late Paxton statement, or even cross-aisle signaling. Recent polling volatility in the Paxton-Talarico contest and ongoing party efforts to unify behind the nominee have not yet produced a decisive move from Cornyn, sustaining the even odds across listed candidates and “nobody.”