Recent polling averages show both the Alaska contest between Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan and Democrat Mary Peltola and the Texas open-seat race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico as toss-ups with victory margins under four points. In Alaska, ranked-choice voting and Peltola’s cross-aisle appeal have kept head-to-head results near even in September surveys, while Texas polls reflect Talarico’s modest leads amid urban turnout and Paxton’s profile. National midterm dynamics, including generic ballot trends, have sustained competitiveness in both states without a decisive shift. Late-cycle developments such as turnout models, final debate performances, or unexpected endorsements could narrow or widen the margins enough to alter which race registers as closer on election night.