Ashley Moody holds a commanding position in Florida’s November 2026 special Senate election because the state has voted Republican in every Senate race since 2012 and delivered double-digit margins for the party’s presidential nominee in 2024. Appointed to the seat in 2025, Moody secured the GOP nomination with nearly 80 percent of the primary vote, benefits from substantial fundraising and law-enforcement endorsements, and faces a Democratic opponent whose primary victory rested on a progressive platform. Recent polling averages show Moody ahead by roughly nine points, and forecasters rate the contest Likely or Solid Republican. A leaked grand-jury report linking Moody to the diversion of Medicaid settlement funds has given Nixon an attack line, yet it has not materially altered the race’s fundamentals. Moody’s odds would narrow only if sustained negative developments eroded her support among core Republican voters or if unusually high Democratic turnout materialized in key counties.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$109,332 Vol.
$109,332 Vol.
Ashley Moody (R)
93%
Angie Nixon (D)
8%
$109,332 Vol.
$109,332 Vol.
Ashley Moody (R)
$53,995 Vol.
93%
Angie Nixon (D)
$55,337 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Ashley Moody holds a commanding position in Florida’s November 2026 special Senate election because the state has voted Republican in every Senate race since 2012 and delivered double-digit margins for the party’s presidential nominee in 2024. Appointed to the seat in 2025, Moody secured the GOP nomination with nearly 80 percent of the primary vote, benefits from substantial fundraising and law-enforcement endorsements, and faces a Democratic opponent whose primary victory rested on a progressive platform. Recent polling averages show Moody ahead by roughly nine points, and forecasters rate the contest Likely or Solid Republican. A leaked grand-jury report linking Moody to the diversion of Medicaid settlement funds has given Nixon an attack line, yet it has not materially altered the race’s fundamentals. Moody’s odds would narrow only if sustained negative developments eroded her support among core Republican voters or if unusually high Democratic turnout materialized in key counties.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ET
Volume
$109,332Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Ashley Moody holds a commanding position in Florida’s November 2026 special Senate election because the state has voted Republican in every Senate race since 2012 and delivered double-digit margins for the party’s presidential nominee in 2024. Appointed to the seat in 2025, Moody secured the GOP nomination with nearly 80 percent of the primary vote, benefits from substantial fundraising and law-enforcement endorsements, and faces a Democratic opponent whose primary victory rested on a progressive platform. Recent polling averages show Moody ahead by roughly nine points, and forecasters rate the contest Likely or Solid Republican. A leaked grand-jury report linking Moody to the diversion of Medicaid settlement funds has given Nixon an attack line, yet it has not materially altered the race’s fundamentals. Moody’s odds would narrow only if sustained negative developments eroded her support among core Republican voters or if unusually high Democratic turnout materialized in key counties.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$109,332Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Ashley Moody holds a commanding position in Florida’s November 2026 special Senate election because the state has voted Republican in every Senate race since 2012 and delivered double-digit margins for the party’s presidential nominee in 2024. Appointed to the seat in 2025, Moody secured the GOP nomination with nearly 80 percent of the primary vote, benefits from substantial fundraising and law-enforcement endorsements, and faces a Democratic opponent whose primary victory rested on a progressive platform. Recent polling averages show Moody ahead by roughly nine points, and forecasters rate the contest Likely or Solid Republican. A leaked grand-jury report linking Moody to the diversion of Medicaid settlement funds has given Nixon an attack line, yet it has not materially altered the race’s fundamentals. Moody’s odds would narrow only if sustained negative developments eroded her support among core Republican voters or if unusually high Democratic turnout materialized in key counties.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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