Democratic incumbent Nellie Pou holds a strong position in New Jersey’s 9th district, a seat with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+2 that she won by five points in 2024 despite the district narrowly backing the Republican presidential nominee. Pou secured her party’s nomination for a second term following the June 2026 primaries, while Republican nominee Rosie Pino emerged from a narrow primary contest. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 90.3% implied probability of retaining the seat, reflecting the district’s underlying partisan lean, Pou’s incumbency advantage, and limited recent polling or fundraising signals of a serious challenge. A major shift would require substantial changes in the national environment, unexpected candidate vulnerabilities, or unusually high Republican turnout that overcomes the structural Democratic edge.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNJ-09 House Election Winner
NJ-09 House Election Winner
$21,042 Vol.
$21,042 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
90%
Republican Party
9%
$21,042 Vol.
$21,042 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$10,268 Vol.
90%
Republican Party
$10,774 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Nellie Pou holds a strong position in New Jersey’s 9th district, a seat with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+2 that she won by five points in 2024 despite the district narrowly backing the Republican presidential nominee. Pou secured her party’s nomination for a second term following the June 2026 primaries, while Republican nominee Rosie Pino emerged from a narrow primary contest. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 90.3% implied probability of retaining the seat, reflecting the district’s underlying partisan lean, Pou’s incumbency advantage, and limited recent polling or fundraising signals of a serious challenge. A major shift would require substantial changes in the national environment, unexpected candidate vulnerabilities, or unusually high Republican turnout that overcomes the structural Democratic edge.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 12:26 PM ET
Volume
$21,042End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Nellie Pou holds a strong position in New Jersey’s 9th district, a seat with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+2 that she won by five points in 2024 despite the district narrowly backing the Republican presidential nominee. Pou secured her party’s nomination for a second term following the June 2026 primaries, while Republican nominee Rosie Pino emerged from a narrow primary contest. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 90.3% implied probability of retaining the seat, reflecting the district’s underlying partisan lean, Pou’s incumbency advantage, and limited recent polling or fundraising signals of a serious challenge. A major shift would require substantial changes in the national environment, unexpected candidate vulnerabilities, or unusually high Republican turnout that overcomes the structural Democratic edge.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$21,042End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic incumbent Nellie Pou holds a strong position in New Jersey’s 9th district, a seat with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+2 that she won by five points in 2024 despite the district narrowly backing the Republican presidential nominee. Pou secured her party’s nomination for a second term following the June 2026 primaries, while Republican nominee Rosie Pino emerged from a narrow primary contest. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 90.3% implied probability of retaining the seat, reflecting the district’s underlying partisan lean, Pou’s incumbency advantage, and limited recent polling or fundraising signals of a serious challenge. A major shift would require substantial changes in the national environment, unexpected candidate vulnerabilities, or unusually high Republican turnout that overcomes the structural Democratic edge.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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