Aisha Wahab holds an 84% share in the CA-14 House race as the frontrunner for the November 2026 general election, following her August 18 special election victory over Melissa Hernandez by roughly 53% to 47%. That win, which allows Wahab to serve as incumbent through January 2027, built on her dominant June primary performances where she captured over 38% and 42% respectively. Heavy outside spending, including millions from AIPAC-affiliated groups backing the more moderate Hernandez, narrowed margins in the special runoff but failed to overcome Wahab’s progressive base and name recognition in the East Bay district. The November contest occurs under slightly redrawn lines that add Dublin voters more familiar with Hernandez, introducing uncertainty that traders price into her 16% share amid this competitive Democratic matchup.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$19,830 Vol.
$19,830 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Aisha Wahab
84%
Melissa Hernandez
16%
$19,830 Vol.
$19,830 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Aisha Wahab
$12,152 Vol.
84%
Melissa Hernandez
$7,677 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Aisha Wahab holds an 84% share in the CA-14 House race as the frontrunner for the November 2026 general election, following her August 18 special election victory over Melissa Hernandez by roughly 53% to 47%. That win, which allows Wahab to serve as incumbent through January 2027, built on her dominant June primary performances where she captured over 38% and 42% respectively. Heavy outside spending, including millions from AIPAC-affiliated groups backing the more moderate Hernandez, narrowed margins in the special runoff but failed to overcome Wahab’s progressive base and name recognition in the East Bay district. The November contest occurs under slightly redrawn lines that add Dublin voters more familiar with Hernandez, introducing uncertainty that traders price into her 16% share amid this competitive Democratic matchup.
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jul 9, 2026, 10:05 PM ET
Volume
$19,830End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 10:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Aisha Wahab holds an 84% share in the CA-14 House race as the frontrunner for the November 2026 general election, following her August 18 special election victory over Melissa Hernandez by roughly 53% to 47%. That win, which allows Wahab to serve as incumbent through January 2027, built on her dominant June primary performances where she captured over 38% and 42% respectively. Heavy outside spending, including millions from AIPAC-affiliated groups backing the more moderate Hernandez, narrowed margins in the special runoff but failed to overcome Wahab’s progressive base and name recognition in the East Bay district. The November contest occurs under slightly redrawn lines that add Dublin voters more familiar with Hernandez, introducing uncertainty that traders price into her 16% share amid this competitive Democratic matchup.
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$19,830End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 10:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Aisha Wahab holds an 84% share in the CA-14 House race as the frontrunner for the November 2026 general election, following her August 18 special election victory over Melissa Hernandez by roughly 53% to 47%. That win, which allows Wahab to serve as incumbent through January 2027, built on her dominant June primary performances where she captured over 38% and 42% respectively. Heavy outside spending, including millions from AIPAC-affiliated groups backing the more moderate Hernandez, narrowed margins in the special runoff but failed to overcome Wahab’s progressive base and name recognition in the East Bay district. The November contest occurs under slightly redrawn lines that add Dublin voters more familiar with Hernandez, introducing uncertainty that traders price into her 16% share amid this competitive Democratic matchup.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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