Joe Wilson, the longtime Republican incumbent, holds a commanding 91.5% implied probability in the SC-02 House race due to the district’s consistent Republican lean, reflected in its R+7 partisan voting index and multiple “Solid Republican” ratings from nonpartisan forecasters. Wilson secured his party’s nomination easily in the June 9 primary, while Democrat Zyon Khalifa advanced through a June 23 runoff to face him in the November 3 general election. The seat’s structural advantages for the GOP, combined with Wilson’s more than two decades of incumbency and established fundraising, underpin trader consensus. Late developments such as unusually high Democratic turnout, a major scandal, or significant national political shifts could narrow the margin, though historical patterns in the district indicate limited realistic paths for an upset.