The district's strong Democratic lean, reinforced by Analilia Mejia's decisive April 2026 special election victory and subsequent incumbency advantage, underpins the current trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Mejia, a progressive labor organizer, secured roughly 62 percent of the vote against her Republican opponent in a race rated solid Democratic by nonpartisan analysts, consistent with the seat's partisan voting index and recent statewide results. The upcoming June primaries and November general election face limited structural barriers for Democrats, given historical turnout patterns and fundraising edges. A national Republican surge, major scandal involving the nominee, or unexpected redistricting could still narrow the margin, though such shifts would require substantial deviation from established voting behavior in this suburban New Jersey constituency.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNJ-11 House Election Winner
NJ-11 House Election Winner
$14,255 Vol.
$14,255 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
93%
Republican Party
9%
$14,255 Vol.
$14,255 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$12,046 Vol.
93%
Republican Party
$2,209 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district's strong Democratic lean, reinforced by Analilia Mejia's decisive April 2026 special election victory and subsequent incumbency advantage, underpins the current trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Mejia, a progressive labor organizer, secured roughly 62 percent of the vote against her Republican opponent in a race rated solid Democratic by nonpartisan analysts, consistent with the seat's partisan voting index and recent statewide results. The upcoming June primaries and November general election face limited structural barriers for Democrats, given historical turnout patterns and fundraising edges. A national Republican surge, major scandal involving the nominee, or unexpected redistricting could still narrow the margin, though such shifts would require substantial deviation from established voting behavior in this suburban New Jersey constituency.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$14,255End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district's strong Democratic lean, reinforced by Analilia Mejia's decisive April 2026 special election victory and subsequent incumbency advantage, underpins the current trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Mejia, a progressive labor organizer, secured roughly 62 percent of the vote against her Republican opponent in a race rated solid Democratic by nonpartisan analysts, consistent with the seat's partisan voting index and recent statewide results. The upcoming June primaries and November general election face limited structural barriers for Democrats, given historical turnout patterns and fundraising edges. A national Republican surge, major scandal involving the nominee, or unexpected redistricting could still narrow the margin, though such shifts would require substantial deviation from established voting behavior in this suburban New Jersey constituency.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$14,255End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The district's strong Democratic lean, reinforced by Analilia Mejia's decisive April 2026 special election victory and subsequent incumbency advantage, underpins the current trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Mejia, a progressive labor organizer, secured roughly 62 percent of the vote against her Republican opponent in a race rated solid Democratic by nonpartisan analysts, consistent with the seat's partisan voting index and recent statewide results. The upcoming June primaries and November general election face limited structural barriers for Democrats, given historical turnout patterns and fundraising edges. A national Republican surge, major scandal involving the nominee, or unexpected redistricting could still narrow the margin, though such shifts would require substantial deviation from established voting behavior in this suburban New Jersey constituency.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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