The Democratic nominee holds a commanding position in New York's Ninth Congressional District due to its established D+22 partisan voter index and consistent strong performance by incumbent Yvette Clarke, who has represented the area since 2006 and won reelection with over 80 percent of the vote in 2024. The June 23 Democratic primary, featuring Clarke against limited challengers, serves as the key early test, after which the general election outcome on November 3 appears largely settled given the district's Brooklyn demographics and historical turnout patterns. Republican prospects remain constrained by structural disadvantages, though a national political shift or unusually high opposition turnout could narrow the margin. Trader consensus at 93.5 percent for Democrats reflects these durable fundamentals rather than any single recent event.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-09 House Election Winner
NY-09 House Election Winner
$29,405 Vol.
$29,405 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
5%
$29,405 Vol.
$29,405 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$17,365 Vol.
94%
Republican Party
$12,040 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic nominee holds a commanding position in New York's Ninth Congressional District due to its established D+22 partisan voter index and consistent strong performance by incumbent Yvette Clarke, who has represented the area since 2006 and won reelection with over 80 percent of the vote in 2024. The June 23 Democratic primary, featuring Clarke against limited challengers, serves as the key early test, after which the general election outcome on November 3 appears largely settled given the district's Brooklyn demographics and historical turnout patterns. Republican prospects remain constrained by structural disadvantages, though a national political shift or unusually high opposition turnout could narrow the margin. Trader consensus at 93.5 percent for Democrats reflects these durable fundamentals rather than any single recent event.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ET
Volume
$29,405End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic nominee holds a commanding position in New York's Ninth Congressional District due to its established D+22 partisan voter index and consistent strong performance by incumbent Yvette Clarke, who has represented the area since 2006 and won reelection with over 80 percent of the vote in 2024. The June 23 Democratic primary, featuring Clarke against limited challengers, serves as the key early test, after which the general election outcome on November 3 appears largely settled given the district's Brooklyn demographics and historical turnout patterns. Republican prospects remain constrained by structural disadvantages, though a national political shift or unusually high opposition turnout could narrow the margin. Trader consensus at 93.5 percent for Democrats reflects these durable fundamentals rather than any single recent event.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$29,405End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Democratic nominee holds a commanding position in New York's Ninth Congressional District due to its established D+22 partisan voter index and consistent strong performance by incumbent Yvette Clarke, who has represented the area since 2006 and won reelection with over 80 percent of the vote in 2024. The June 23 Democratic primary, featuring Clarke against limited challengers, serves as the key early test, after which the general election outcome on November 3 appears largely settled given the district's Brooklyn demographics and historical turnout patterns. Republican prospects remain constrained by structural disadvantages, though a national political shift or unusually high opposition turnout could narrow the margin. Trader consensus at 93.5 percent for Democrats reflects these durable fundamentals rather than any single recent event.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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