Incumbent Democrat Bobby Scott holds a commanding position in Virginia’s 3rd congressional district, a safely Democratic seat encompassing parts of Hampton Roads including Norfolk and Newport News. Scott’s long tenure since 1993, consistent double-digit margins including 70 percent in 2024, and the district’s partisan voting index support trader consensus around a 94.5 percent Democratic win probability. The Republican nominee faces structural headwinds in a constituency that has favored Democrats by wide margins in recent cycles. Late developments such as an unexpected retirement, major scandal, or unprecedented national swing could still alter the outcome before the November 3, 2026 general election, though current indicators show limited volatility.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedVA-03 House Election Winner
VA-03 House Election Winner
$43,090 Vol.
$43,090 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
6%
$43,090 Vol.
$43,090 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$21,441 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$21,649 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Bobby Scott holds a commanding position in Virginia’s 3rd congressional district, a safely Democratic seat encompassing parts of Hampton Roads including Norfolk and Newport News. Scott’s long tenure since 1993, consistent double-digit margins including 70 percent in 2024, and the district’s partisan voting index support trader consensus around a 94.5 percent Democratic win probability. The Republican nominee faces structural headwinds in a constituency that has favored Democrats by wide margins in recent cycles. Late developments such as an unexpected retirement, major scandal, or unprecedented national swing could still alter the outcome before the November 3, 2026 general election, though current indicators show limited volatility.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$43,090End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Bobby Scott holds a commanding position in Virginia’s 3rd congressional district, a safely Democratic seat encompassing parts of Hampton Roads including Norfolk and Newport News. Scott’s long tenure since 1993, consistent double-digit margins including 70 percent in 2024, and the district’s partisan voting index support trader consensus around a 94.5 percent Democratic win probability. The Republican nominee faces structural headwinds in a constituency that has favored Democrats by wide margins in recent cycles. Late developments such as an unexpected retirement, major scandal, or unprecedented national swing could still alter the outcome before the November 3, 2026 general election, though current indicators show limited volatility.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$43,090End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Bobby Scott holds a commanding position in Virginia’s 3rd congressional district, a safely Democratic seat encompassing parts of Hampton Roads including Norfolk and Newport News. Scott’s long tenure since 1993, consistent double-digit margins including 70 percent in 2024, and the district’s partisan voting index support trader consensus around a 94.5 percent Democratic win probability. The Republican nominee faces structural headwinds in a constituency that has favored Democrats by wide margins in recent cycles. Late developments such as an unexpected retirement, major scandal, or unprecedented national swing could still alter the outcome before the November 3, 2026 general election, though current indicators show limited volatility.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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