Maine’s 2nd congressional district remains a competitive open-seat race following incumbent Democrat Jared Golden’s retirement. Republican Paul LePage, the former governor, secured his party’s nomination unopposed, while Democrat Matthew Dunlap advanced via ranked-choice voting in a crowded June primary. The district’s R+4 partisan lean and history of narrow margins keep the contest tight, with traders assigning Republicans a modest edge at 58 percent. Key factors sustaining the balance include LePage’s statewide name recognition against Dunlap’s legislative and auditing experience, limited recent polling movement, and the impact of national midterm dynamics on voter turnout. Upcoming developments such as candidate debates, fall advertising surges, or shifts in voter sentiment on economic issues could widen the gap before November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
NEW
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
58%
Democratic Party
43%
NEW
NEW
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$5,782 Vol.
58%
Democratic Party
$2,263 Vol.
43%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ME-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maine’s 2nd congressional district remains a competitive open-seat race following incumbent Democrat Jared Golden’s retirement. Republican Paul LePage, the former governor, secured his party’s nomination unopposed, while Democrat Matthew Dunlap advanced via ranked-choice voting in a crowded June primary. The district’s R+4 partisan lean and history of narrow margins keep the contest tight, with traders assigning Republicans a modest edge at 58 percent. Key factors sustaining the balance include LePage’s statewide name recognition against Dunlap’s legislative and auditing experience, limited recent polling movement, and the impact of national midterm dynamics on voter turnout. Upcoming developments such as candidate debates, fall advertising surges, or shifts in voter sentiment on economic issues could widen the gap before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ME-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 6:15 PM ET
Volume
$8,044End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 6:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ME-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maine’s 2nd congressional district remains a competitive open-seat race following incumbent Democrat Jared Golden’s retirement. Republican Paul LePage, the former governor, secured his party’s nomination unopposed, while Democrat Matthew Dunlap advanced via ranked-choice voting in a crowded June primary. The district’s R+4 partisan lean and history of narrow margins keep the contest tight, with traders assigning Republicans a modest edge at 58 percent. Key factors sustaining the balance include LePage’s statewide name recognition against Dunlap’s legislative and auditing experience, limited recent polling movement, and the impact of national midterm dynamics on voter turnout. Upcoming developments such as candidate debates, fall advertising surges, or shifts in voter sentiment on economic issues could widen the gap before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ME-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$8,044End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 6:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Maine’s 2nd congressional district remains a competitive open-seat race following incumbent Democrat Jared Golden’s retirement. Republican Paul LePage, the former governor, secured his party’s nomination unopposed, while Democrat Matthew Dunlap advanced via ranked-choice voting in a crowded June primary. The district’s R+4 partisan lean and history of narrow margins keep the contest tight, with traders assigning Republicans a modest edge at 58 percent. Key factors sustaining the balance include LePage’s statewide name recognition against Dunlap’s legislative and auditing experience, limited recent polling movement, and the impact of national midterm dynamics on voter turnout. Upcoming developments such as candidate debates, fall advertising surges, or shifts in voter sentiment on economic issues could widen the gap before November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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