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Elections·US Election

CA-04 House Election Winner (by individual)

icon for CA-04 House Election Winner (by individual)
Elections·US Election

CA-04 House Election Winner (by individual)

Polymarket
NEW
Polymarket
NEW

Mike Thompson

$6,730 Vol.

71%

Eric Jones

$2,089 Vol.

30%

This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson holds the leading position in trader consensus for California's 4th Congressional District general election due to his long tenure since 1999, established fundraising edge, and endorsements from party leadership and elected officials. The district's Democratic lean, reaffirmed in recent redistricting, supports his advantage in a race rated Solid or Safe Democratic by multiple forecasters as of mid-August 2026. Challenger Eric Jones, a former venture capitalist who advanced from the June top-two primary, sits lower amid limited crossover appeal despite a recent endorsement from defeated Republican Raymond Riehle aimed at mobilizing independents and GOP voters. Jones has pressed for multi-county debates, but the primary outcome and structural factors continue to anchor probabilities around the two Democrats.

This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$8,819
End Date
Nov 4, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 6, 2026, 6:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson holds the leading position in trader consensus for California's 4th Congressional District general election due to his long tenure since 1999, established fundraising edge, and endorsements from party leadership and elected officials. The district's Democratic lean, reaffirmed in recent redistricting, supports his advantage in a race rated Solid or Safe Democratic by multiple forecasters as of mid-August 2026. Challenger Eric Jones, a former venture capitalist who advanced from the June top-two primary, sits lower amid limited crossover appeal despite a recent endorsement from defeated Republican Raymond Riehle aimed at mobilizing independents and GOP voters. Jones has pressed for multi-county debates, but the primary outcome and structural factors continue to anchor probabilities around the two Democrats.

This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$8,819
End Date
Nov 4, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 6, 2026, 6:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"CA-04 House Election Winner (by individual)" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mike Thompson" at 71%, followed by "Eric Jones" at 30%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 71¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 71% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"CA-04 House Election Winner (by individual)" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 6, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "CA-04 House Election Winner (by individual)," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "CA-04 House Election Winner (by individual)" is "Mike Thompson" at 71%, meaning the market assigns a 71% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Eric Jones" at 30%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "CA-04 House Election Winner (by individual)" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.