**Incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson and challenger Eric Jones advanced from California’s June 2, 2026 top-two primary for the 4th congressional district, creating an all-Democratic general election matchup on November 3.** The district’s voter registration (roughly 42% Democratic, 30% Republican) and consistent historical performance favor Democrats, with Thompson having held the seat since 1999. Multiple Republican candidates split the primary vote, preventing any from reaching the runoff. Trader consensus at 94.5% for the Democratic Party reflects this structural outcome. A Republican win would require an unprecedented reversal of the top-two system or major shifts in turnout and candidate performance between now and November, neither of which has materialized in recent polling or fundraising data.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоCA-04 House Election Winner
CA-04 House Election Winner
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
3%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Democratic Party
$5,048 Объем
94%
Republican Party
$2,639 Объем
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson and challenger Eric Jones advanced from California’s June 2, 2026 top-two primary for the 4th congressional district, creating an all-Democratic general election matchup on November 3.**
The district’s voter registration (roughly 42% Democratic, 30% Republican) and consistent historical performance favor Democrats, with Thompson having held the seat since 1999. Multiple Republican candidates split the primary vote, preventing any from reaching the runoff. Trader consensus at 94.5% for the Democratic Party reflects this structural outcome. A Republican win would require an unprecedented reversal of the top-two system or major shifts in turnout and candidate performance between now and November, neither of which has materialized in recent polling or fundraising data.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Объем
$7,687Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson and challenger Eric Jones advanced from California’s June 2, 2026 top-two primary for the 4th congressional district, creating an all-Democratic general election matchup on November 3.**
The district’s voter registration (roughly 42% Democratic, 30% Republican) and consistent historical performance favor Democrats, with Thompson having held the seat since 1999. Multiple Republican candidates split the primary vote, preventing any from reaching the runoff. Trader consensus at 94.5% for the Democratic Party reflects this structural outcome. A Republican win would require an unprecedented reversal of the top-two system or major shifts in turnout and candidate performance between now and November, neither of which has materialized in recent polling or fundraising data.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$7,687Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson and challenger Eric Jones advanced from California’s June 2, 2026 top-two primary for the 4th congressional district, creating an all-Democratic general election matchup on November 3.** The district’s voter registration (roughly 42% Democratic, 30% Republican) and consistent historical performance favor Democrats, with Thompson having held the seat since 1999. Multiple Republican candidates split the primary vote, preventing any from reaching the runoff. Trader consensus at 94.5% for the Democratic Party reflects this structural outcome. A Republican win would require an unprecedented reversal of the top-two system or major shifts in turnout and candidate performance between now and November, neither of which has materialized in recent polling or fundraising data.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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