**Incumbent Rep. Valerie Foushee's narrow victory over progressive challenger Nida Allam in the March 3 Democratic primary has solidified her path in solidly Democratic NC-04, a district encompassing Durham, Chapel Hill, and parts of Raleigh that rates as Solid D by the Cook Political Report.** Trader consensus reflects the seat's deep-blue partisan lean under new boundaries drawn in October 2025, with minimal Republican opposition after just one GOP filer advanced automatically without a contested primary. No major developments have emerged since the primaries, leaving Foushee favored ahead of the November 3 general election. Scenarios that could shift odds include a Foushee scandal, high-profile Republican recruitment, or a national GOP wave boosting turnout in battleground states.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNC-04 House Election Winner
NC-04 House Election Winner
$12,225 Vol.
$12,225 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
7%
$12,225 Vol.
$12,225 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$7,607 Vol.
94%
Republican Party
$4,618 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Incumbent Rep. Valerie Foushee's narrow victory over progressive challenger Nida Allam in the March 3 Democratic primary has solidified her path in solidly Democratic NC-04, a district encompassing Durham, Chapel Hill, and parts of Raleigh that rates as Solid D by the Cook Political Report.** Trader consensus reflects the seat's deep-blue partisan lean under new boundaries drawn in October 2025, with minimal Republican opposition after just one GOP filer advanced automatically without a contested primary. No major developments have emerged since the primaries, leaving Foushee favored ahead of the November 3 general election. Scenarios that could shift odds include a Foushee scandal, high-profile Republican recruitment, or a national GOP wave boosting turnout in battleground states.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$12,225End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Incumbent Rep. Valerie Foushee's narrow victory over progressive challenger Nida Allam in the March 3 Democratic primary has solidified her path in solidly Democratic NC-04, a district encompassing Durham, Chapel Hill, and parts of Raleigh that rates as Solid D by the Cook Political Report.** Trader consensus reflects the seat's deep-blue partisan lean under new boundaries drawn in October 2025, with minimal Republican opposition after just one GOP filer advanced automatically without a contested primary. No major developments have emerged since the primaries, leaving Foushee favored ahead of the November 3 general election. Scenarios that could shift odds include a Foushee scandal, high-profile Republican recruitment, or a national GOP wave boosting turnout in battleground states.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$12,225End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Incumbent Rep. Valerie Foushee's narrow victory over progressive challenger Nida Allam in the March 3 Democratic primary has solidified her path in solidly Democratic NC-04, a district encompassing Durham, Chapel Hill, and parts of Raleigh that rates as Solid D by the Cook Political Report.** Trader consensus reflects the seat's deep-blue partisan lean under new boundaries drawn in October 2025, with minimal Republican opposition after just one GOP filer advanced automatically without a contested primary. No major developments have emerged since the primaries, leaving Foushee favored ahead of the November 3 general election. Scenarios that could shift odds include a Foushee scandal, high-profile Republican recruitment, or a national GOP wave boosting turnout in battleground states.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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