Incumbent Republican Greg Murphy benefits from the district’s consistent Republican tilt, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+6 and a 14-point Trump margin in the prior presidential election. Forecasters at the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, citing Murphy’s established fundraising edge—over $2 million in reserves—and the absence of a high-profile Democratic challenger. The March Democratic primary between Raymond Smith and Allison Jaslow produced no immediate threat to the general-election outlook. With no major shifts in polling or candidate developments since redistricting, trader consensus continues to price Republican victory well above 80 percent, consistent with historical performance in this eastern North Carolina district.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNC-03 House Election Winner
NC-03 House Election Winner
$18,568 Vol.
$18,568 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
86%
Democratic Party
13%
$18,568 Vol.
$18,568 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$13,940 Vol.
86%
Democratic Party
$4,628 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Greg Murphy benefits from the district’s consistent Republican tilt, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+6 and a 14-point Trump margin in the prior presidential election. Forecasters at the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, citing Murphy’s established fundraising edge—over $2 million in reserves—and the absence of a high-profile Democratic challenger. The March Democratic primary between Raymond Smith and Allison Jaslow produced no immediate threat to the general-election outlook. With no major shifts in polling or candidate developments since redistricting, trader consensus continues to price Republican victory well above 80 percent, consistent with historical performance in this eastern North Carolina district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$18,568End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Greg Murphy benefits from the district’s consistent Republican tilt, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+6 and a 14-point Trump margin in the prior presidential election. Forecasters at the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, citing Murphy’s established fundraising edge—over $2 million in reserves—and the absence of a high-profile Democratic challenger. The March Democratic primary between Raymond Smith and Allison Jaslow produced no immediate threat to the general-election outlook. With no major shifts in polling or candidate developments since redistricting, trader consensus continues to price Republican victory well above 80 percent, consistent with historical performance in this eastern North Carolina district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$18,568End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Greg Murphy benefits from the district’s consistent Republican tilt, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+6 and a 14-point Trump margin in the prior presidential election. Forecasters at the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, citing Murphy’s established fundraising edge—over $2 million in reserves—and the absence of a high-profile Democratic challenger. The March Democratic primary between Raymond Smith and Allison Jaslow produced no immediate threat to the general-election outlook. With no major shifts in polling or candidate developments since redistricting, trader consensus continues to price Republican victory well above 80 percent, consistent with historical performance in this eastern North Carolina district.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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