Provisional and absentee ballot counts after November 3 flipped the NC-03 race, giving Democrat Raymond Smith Jr. a 293-vote lead over incumbent Republican Greg Murphy in unofficial tallies from all nine counties. Smith gained strongly from late-reported ballots, particularly in Pitt County, amid a broader Democratic shift across North Carolina that contributed to multiple seat flips. Traders assign Smith a 99.1% implied probability because nearly all expected votes are in and the margin exceeds typical remaining adjustments, though the sub-1% difference keeps the outcome within the state's recount threshold. Certification is scheduled for November 13, and a formal recount request by Murphy or discovery of tabulation discrepancies remain the primary factors that could alter the result before final resolution.