The heavily Democratic lean of Texas's 30th congressional district, with a Cook PVI of D+25 and consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in recent presidential and Senate races, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 95.5%. Frederick Haynes III secured the Democratic nomination in March 2026 with 72.6% of the primary vote in an open seat created by redistricting, while Republican Everett Jackson advanced through a low-turnout primary runoff. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the November general election Solid or Safe Democratic based on district fundamentals and absence of competitive polling. A late-breaking scandal affecting the Democratic candidate, an unprecedented national Republican surge in turnout, or a major shift in local voting patterns could narrow the gap, though historical margins make such outcomes improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTX-30 House Election Winner
TX-30 House Election Winner
$47,064 Vol.
$47,064 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
3%
$47,064 Vol.
$47,064 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$5,578 Vol.
96%
Republican Party
$41,487 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The heavily Democratic lean of Texas's 30th congressional district, with a Cook PVI of D+25 and consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in recent presidential and Senate races, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 95.5%. Frederick Haynes III secured the Democratic nomination in March 2026 with 72.6% of the primary vote in an open seat created by redistricting, while Republican Everett Jackson advanced through a low-turnout primary runoff. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the November general election Solid or Safe Democratic based on district fundamentals and absence of competitive polling. A late-breaking scandal affecting the Democratic candidate, an unprecedented national Republican surge in turnout, or a major shift in local voting patterns could narrow the gap, though historical margins make such outcomes improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$47,064End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The heavily Democratic lean of Texas's 30th congressional district, with a Cook PVI of D+25 and consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in recent presidential and Senate races, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 95.5%. Frederick Haynes III secured the Democratic nomination in March 2026 with 72.6% of the primary vote in an open seat created by redistricting, while Republican Everett Jackson advanced through a low-turnout primary runoff. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the November general election Solid or Safe Democratic based on district fundamentals and absence of competitive polling. A late-breaking scandal affecting the Democratic candidate, an unprecedented national Republican surge in turnout, or a major shift in local voting patterns could narrow the gap, though historical margins make such outcomes improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$47,064End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The heavily Democratic lean of Texas's 30th congressional district, with a Cook PVI of D+25 and consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in recent presidential and Senate races, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 95.5%. Frederick Haynes III secured the Democratic nomination in March 2026 with 72.6% of the primary vote in an open seat created by redistricting, while Republican Everett Jackson advanced through a low-turnout primary runoff. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the November general election Solid or Safe Democratic based on district fundamentals and absence of competitive polling. A late-breaking scandal affecting the Democratic candidate, an unprecedented national Republican surge in turnout, or a major shift in local voting patterns could narrow the gap, though historical margins make such outcomes improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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