Recent polling in Pennsylvania’s 8th congressional district has shown Democratic challenger Paige Cognetti, Scranton’s mayor, maintaining narrow but consistent leads over Republican incumbent Rob Bresnahan, with averages around 3 points in late October surveys from outlets including NYT/Siena and Emerson. Forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted the race from toss-up to leans Democratic in the final week, citing these results and the challenger’s fundraising advantage. Cognetti outraised and outspent Bresnahan in the third quarter, supporting heavier advertising. With the November 3 election one day away, these factors have driven trader consensus to assign Cognetti an 88% implied probability of victory while leaving Bresnahan at 11.5%.