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Politics·Canada

Calgary-Shaw Provincial By-Election Winner

icon for Calgary-Shaw Provincial By-Election Winner
Politics·Canada

Calgary-Shaw Provincial By-Election Winner

Mike Derry 77%

Kyle Campbell 18%

John Roggeveen 5.4%

Kyle Joseph <1%

Polymarket
NEW

Mike Derry 77%

Kyle Campbell 18%

John Roggeveen 5.4%

Kyle Joseph <1%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Mike Derry

Mike Derry

$486 Vol.

77%

icon for Kyle Campbell

Kyle Campbell

$214 Vol.

18%

icon for John Roggeveen

John Roggeveen

$97 Vol.

5%

icon for Kyle Joseph

Kyle Joseph

$129 Vol.

<1%

A by-election for the Alberta provincial electoral district of Calgary-Shaw is currently scheduled to be held on September 14, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Alberta (https://www.elections.ab.ca/).Mike Derry holds a commanding lead in trader consensus for the Calgary-Shaw by-election on September 14, 2026, driven by his June victory in the United Conservative Party nomination contest over Calgary city councillor Dan McLean and the riding’s established UCP strength. The seat opened after former UCP MLA Rebecca Schulz resigned, and the governing party’s candidate benefits from historical margins exceeding 3,000 votes in the 2023 general election. NDP nominee Kyle Campbell represents the primary opposition but faces structural challenges in a southwest Calgary riding where UCP support has remained consistent. Minor-party contenders, including Progressive Tory Kyle Joseph and Liberal John Roggeveen, register minimal probabilities reflecting limited organizational presence and historical vote shares. The recent by-election call and candidate declarations have reinforced expectations of a UCP hold without notable late shifts in the short campaign window.

A by-election for the Alberta provincial electoral district of Calgary-Shaw is currently scheduled to be held on September 14, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election.

If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Alberta (https://www.elections.ab.ca/).
Volume
$926
End Date
Sep 14, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 6:53 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for the Alberta provincial electoral district of Calgary-Shaw is currently scheduled to be held on September 14, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Alberta (https://www.elections.ab.ca/).
A by-election for the Alberta provincial electoral district of Calgary-Shaw is currently scheduled to be held on September 14, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Alberta (https://www.elections.ab.ca/).Mike Derry holds a commanding lead in trader consensus for the Calgary-Shaw by-election on September 14, 2026, driven by his June victory in the United Conservative Party nomination contest over Calgary city councillor Dan McLean and the riding’s established UCP strength. The seat opened after former UCP MLA Rebecca Schulz resigned, and the governing party’s candidate benefits from historical margins exceeding 3,000 votes in the 2023 general election. NDP nominee Kyle Campbell represents the primary opposition but faces structural challenges in a southwest Calgary riding where UCP support has remained consistent. Minor-party contenders, including Progressive Tory Kyle Joseph and Liberal John Roggeveen, register minimal probabilities reflecting limited organizational presence and historical vote shares. The recent by-election call and candidate declarations have reinforced expectations of a UCP hold without notable late shifts in the short campaign window.

A by-election for the Alberta provincial electoral district of Calgary-Shaw is currently scheduled to be held on September 14, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election.

If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Alberta (https://www.elections.ab.ca/).
Volume
$926
End Date
Sep 14, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 6:53 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for the Alberta provincial electoral district of Calgary-Shaw is currently scheduled to be held on September 14, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Alberta (https://www.elections.ab.ca/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Calgary-Shaw Provincial By-Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mike Derry" at 77%, followed by "Kyle Campbell" at 18%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 77¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 77% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Calgary-Shaw Provincial By-Election Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 21, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Calgary-Shaw Provincial By-Election Winner," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Calgary-Shaw Provincial By-Election Winner" is "Mike Derry" at 77%, meaning the market assigns a 77% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Kyle Campbell" at 18%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Calgary-Shaw Provincial By-Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.