**Mike Mazzei leads Polymarket odds for the Republican nomination at 68.5%, followed by Gentner Drummond at 26.0%, with all other candidates at 2.5% or lower.** The June 16, 2026, primary produced no majority winner, advancing Mazzei (25.5% of the vote) and Drummond (25.9%) to an August 25 runoff; the other listed contenders, including Charles McCall and Chip Keating, finished outside the top two. Mazzei’s position reflects trader assessment of his late primary momentum from President Trump’s endorsement, combined with over $10 million in personal loans to his campaign that supported heavy advertising. Drummond, the sitting attorney general, leveraged statewide name recognition and a record as a former fighter pilot but trails in the current pricing. The wide spread in market odds aligns with Mazzei’s perceived advantages heading into the runoff, while Drummond’s share captures residual support from his established profile. No further primary events remain before the runoff date.