Wisconsin’s 3rd congressional district remains one of the most competitive House seats heading into the November 2026 general election, with the Democratic nominee positioned as the narrow favorite in trader assessments. Incumbent Republican Derrick Van Orden won reelection by roughly three points in 2024 after flipping the seat in 2022, but recent polling—including a June survey showing Democrat Rebecca Cooke ahead by four points—has shifted expectations. Cooke secured the Democratic nomination on August 11 with strong support from national party committees and labor groups, outpacing her primary opponent and demonstrating robust fundraising. The district’s mix of rural areas and college towns in the Driftless region continues to produce close partisan margins, keeping both parties focused on turnout and messaging around economic issues. Upcoming campaign events and additional polling through the fall will likely influence further adjustments in implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWI-03 House Election Winner
WI-03 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
71%
Republican Party
27%
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
$2,599 Vol.
71%
Republican Party
$1,464 Vol.
27%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Wisconsin’s 3rd congressional district remains one of the most competitive House seats heading into the November 2026 general election, with the Democratic nominee positioned as the narrow favorite in trader assessments. Incumbent Republican Derrick Van Orden won reelection by roughly three points in 2024 after flipping the seat in 2022, but recent polling—including a June survey showing Democrat Rebecca Cooke ahead by four points—has shifted expectations. Cooke secured the Democratic nomination on August 11 with strong support from national party committees and labor groups, outpacing her primary opponent and demonstrating robust fundraising. The district’s mix of rural areas and college towns in the Driftless region continues to produce close partisan margins, keeping both parties focused on turnout and messaging around economic issues. Upcoming campaign events and additional polling through the fall will likely influence further adjustments in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ET
Volume
$4,063End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Wisconsin’s 3rd congressional district remains one of the most competitive House seats heading into the November 2026 general election, with the Democratic nominee positioned as the narrow favorite in trader assessments. Incumbent Republican Derrick Van Orden won reelection by roughly three points in 2024 after flipping the seat in 2022, but recent polling—including a June survey showing Democrat Rebecca Cooke ahead by four points—has shifted expectations. Cooke secured the Democratic nomination on August 11 with strong support from national party committees and labor groups, outpacing her primary opponent and demonstrating robust fundraising. The district’s mix of rural areas and college towns in the Driftless region continues to produce close partisan margins, keeping both parties focused on turnout and messaging around economic issues. Upcoming campaign events and additional polling through the fall will likely influence further adjustments in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$4,063End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Wisconsin’s 3rd congressional district remains one of the most competitive House seats heading into the November 2026 general election, with the Democratic nominee positioned as the narrow favorite in trader assessments. Incumbent Republican Derrick Van Orden won reelection by roughly three points in 2024 after flipping the seat in 2022, but recent polling—including a June survey showing Democrat Rebecca Cooke ahead by four points—has shifted expectations. Cooke secured the Democratic nomination on August 11 with strong support from national party committees and labor groups, outpacing her primary opponent and demonstrating robust fundraising. The district’s mix of rural areas and college towns in the Driftless region continues to produce close partisan margins, keeping both parties focused on turnout and messaging around economic issues. Upcoming campaign events and additional polling through the fall will likely influence further adjustments in implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions