Recent polling and the Democratic primary outcome position the seat as competitive in the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Republican Derrick Van Orden, who won reelection by roughly three points in 2024, faces rematch challenger Rebecca Cooke, who defeated Emily Berge in the August 11 Democratic primary. A June poll showed Cooke ahead 50-46, while Cook Political Report rates the race as leaning Republican or toss-up. The southwestern Wisconsin district, covering areas like Eau Claire and La Crosse, has seen national Democratic support and stronger fundraising for Cooke. Trader consensus reflects these indicators alongside the district's swing character and historical narrow margins, though the general election remains months away and subject to further shifts from turnout and campaign dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWI-03 House Election Winner
WI-03 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
72%
Republican Party
28%
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
$2,599 Vol.
72%
Republican Party
$1,464 Vol.
28%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Recent polling and the Democratic primary outcome position the seat as competitive in the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Republican Derrick Van Orden, who won reelection by roughly three points in 2024, faces rematch challenger Rebecca Cooke, who defeated Emily Berge in the August 11 Democratic primary. A June poll showed Cooke ahead 50-46, while Cook Political Report rates the race as leaning Republican or toss-up. The southwestern Wisconsin district, covering areas like Eau Claire and La Crosse, has seen national Democratic support and stronger fundraising for Cooke. Trader consensus reflects these indicators alongside the district's swing character and historical narrow margins, though the general election remains months away and subject to further shifts from turnout and campaign dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ET
Volume
$4,063End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Recent polling and the Democratic primary outcome position the seat as competitive in the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Republican Derrick Van Orden, who won reelection by roughly three points in 2024, faces rematch challenger Rebecca Cooke, who defeated Emily Berge in the August 11 Democratic primary. A June poll showed Cooke ahead 50-46, while Cook Political Report rates the race as leaning Republican or toss-up. The southwestern Wisconsin district, covering areas like Eau Claire and La Crosse, has seen national Democratic support and stronger fundraising for Cooke. Trader consensus reflects these indicators alongside the district's swing character and historical narrow margins, though the general election remains months away and subject to further shifts from turnout and campaign dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$4,063End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polling and the Democratic primary outcome position the seat as competitive in the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Republican Derrick Van Orden, who won reelection by roughly three points in 2024, faces rematch challenger Rebecca Cooke, who defeated Emily Berge in the August 11 Democratic primary. A June poll showed Cooke ahead 50-46, while Cook Political Report rates the race as leaning Republican or toss-up. The southwestern Wisconsin district, covering areas like Eau Claire and La Crosse, has seen national Democratic support and stronger fundraising for Cooke. Trader consensus reflects these indicators alongside the district's swing character and historical narrow margins, though the general election remains months away and subject to further shifts from turnout and campaign dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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