Rebecca Cooke leads the WI-03 race in trader pricing due to her strong performance in the August 2026 Democratic primary and consistent polling edges over incumbent Derrick Van Orden in this rematch of their narrow 2024 contest. Recent surveys, including those from June, show Cooke ahead by 4 points in a district rated a toss-up by forecasters, with her campaign holding a notable fundraising advantage and higher visibility among voters in western Wisconsin. Van Orden remains the sitting representative but faces lower favorability ratings, while the general election on November 3 features limited independent polling and standard midterm dynamics that keep the outcome sensitive to turnout and late shifts.