Incumbent Democrat Adelita Grijalva holds a commanding position in Arizona's 7th congressional district, a majority-Hispanic seat along the southern border that includes parts of Tucson and Yuma. She secured the seat in a 2025 special election with nearly 69 percent of the vote after succeeding her late father and then won her party's primary without opposition in July 2026. The Republican nominee, Daniel Butierez Sr., faces structural headwinds in a district with a strong Democratic lean and established voter patterns. Trader consensus around 95 percent for the Democratic Party reflects these factors, including incumbency advantages and primary results. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a significant national partisan shift, unusually high Republican turnout, or unforeseen developments affecting the incumbent before November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAZ-07 House Election Winner
AZ-07 House Election Winner
$32,760 Vol.
$32,760 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
5%
$32,760 Vol.
$32,760 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$5,795 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$26,965 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Adelita Grijalva holds a commanding position in Arizona's 7th congressional district, a majority-Hispanic seat along the southern border that includes parts of Tucson and Yuma. She secured the seat in a 2025 special election with nearly 69 percent of the vote after succeeding her late father and then won her party's primary without opposition in July 2026. The Republican nominee, Daniel Butierez Sr., faces structural headwinds in a district with a strong Democratic lean and established voter patterns. Trader consensus around 95 percent for the Democratic Party reflects these factors, including incumbency advantages and primary results. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a significant national partisan shift, unusually high Republican turnout, or unforeseen developments affecting the incumbent before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$32,760End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Adelita Grijalva holds a commanding position in Arizona's 7th congressional district, a majority-Hispanic seat along the southern border that includes parts of Tucson and Yuma. She secured the seat in a 2025 special election with nearly 69 percent of the vote after succeeding her late father and then won her party's primary without opposition in July 2026. The Republican nominee, Daniel Butierez Sr., faces structural headwinds in a district with a strong Democratic lean and established voter patterns. Trader consensus around 95 percent for the Democratic Party reflects these factors, including incumbency advantages and primary results. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a significant national partisan shift, unusually high Republican turnout, or unforeseen developments affecting the incumbent before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$32,760End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Adelita Grijalva holds a commanding position in Arizona's 7th congressional district, a majority-Hispanic seat along the southern border that includes parts of Tucson and Yuma. She secured the seat in a 2025 special election with nearly 69 percent of the vote after succeeding her late father and then won her party's primary without opposition in July 2026. The Republican nominee, Daniel Butierez Sr., faces structural headwinds in a district with a strong Democratic lean and established voter patterns. Trader consensus around 95 percent for the Democratic Party reflects these factors, including incumbency advantages and primary results. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a significant national partisan shift, unusually high Republican turnout, or unforeseen developments affecting the incumbent before November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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