Incumbent Democrat Brendan Boyle holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania’s 2nd congressional district, a Philadelphia-based seat with a Partisan Voter Index of D+19 that delivered him 71.5 percent of the vote in 2024. Nonpartisan analysts rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, citing Boyle’s long tenure since 2015, uncontested primary, and substantial fundraising edge over Republican nominee Jessica Arriaga. Trader consensus at 94.5 percent Democratic probability mirrors these structural factors and the absence of competitive polling or notable campaign developments. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen event such as a major scandal, health-related withdrawal, or dramatic national political realignment in the final weeks before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPA-02 House Election Winner
PA-02 House Election Winner
$35,660 Vol.
$35,660 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
2%
$35,660 Vol.
$35,660 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$6,352 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$29,308 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Brendan Boyle holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania’s 2nd congressional district, a Philadelphia-based seat with a Partisan Voter Index of D+19 that delivered him 71.5 percent of the vote in 2024. Nonpartisan analysts rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, citing Boyle’s long tenure since 2015, uncontested primary, and substantial fundraising edge over Republican nominee Jessica Arriaga. Trader consensus at 94.5 percent Democratic probability mirrors these structural factors and the absence of competitive polling or notable campaign developments. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen event such as a major scandal, health-related withdrawal, or dramatic national political realignment in the final weeks before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$35,660End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Brendan Boyle holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania’s 2nd congressional district, a Philadelphia-based seat with a Partisan Voter Index of D+19 that delivered him 71.5 percent of the vote in 2024. Nonpartisan analysts rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, citing Boyle’s long tenure since 2015, uncontested primary, and substantial fundraising edge over Republican nominee Jessica Arriaga. Trader consensus at 94.5 percent Democratic probability mirrors these structural factors and the absence of competitive polling or notable campaign developments. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen event such as a major scandal, health-related withdrawal, or dramatic national political realignment in the final weeks before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$35,660End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Brendan Boyle holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania’s 2nd congressional district, a Philadelphia-based seat with a Partisan Voter Index of D+19 that delivered him 71.5 percent of the vote in 2024. Nonpartisan analysts rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, citing Boyle’s long tenure since 2015, uncontested primary, and substantial fundraising edge over Republican nominee Jessica Arriaga. Trader consensus at 94.5 percent Democratic probability mirrors these structural factors and the absence of competitive polling or notable campaign developments. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen event such as a major scandal, health-related withdrawal, or dramatic national political realignment in the final weeks before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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