Florida's 24th congressional district remains a safely Democratic seat with a partisan voting index around D+22, based on consistent past election margins and voter composition in northern Miami-Dade and southern Broward counties. Longtime incumbent Frederica Wilson announced her retirement in May 2026, triggering a crowded Democratic primary set for August 18 that features leading contenders such as state Senator Shevrin Jones and Miami-Dade Commissioner Oliver Gilbert; recent primary polling shows Jones ahead but the outcome has limited bearing on the general election. Minimal Republican filing activity and fundraising further reduce any competitive threat. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 94% implied probability of victory because historical turnout patterns, district boundaries set in 2025, and the absence of crossover appeal make a Republican general-election win improbable. Late developments that could narrow this margin include an unusually strong Republican recruitment, court-ordered redistricting shifts before November 2026, or a sharp decline in Democratic primary turnout that signals broader base erosion.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFL-24 House Election Winner
FL-24 House Election Winner
$24,810 Vol.
$24,810 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
3%
$24,810 Vol.
$24,810 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$10,100 Vol.
94%
Republican Party
$14,710 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Florida's 24th congressional district remains a safely Democratic seat with a partisan voting index around D+22, based on consistent past election margins and voter composition in northern Miami-Dade and southern Broward counties. Longtime incumbent Frederica Wilson announced her retirement in May 2026, triggering a crowded Democratic primary set for August 18 that features leading contenders such as state Senator Shevrin Jones and Miami-Dade Commissioner Oliver Gilbert; recent primary polling shows Jones ahead but the outcome has limited bearing on the general election. Minimal Republican filing activity and fundraising further reduce any competitive threat. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 94% implied probability of victory because historical turnout patterns, district boundaries set in 2025, and the absence of crossover appeal make a Republican general-election win improbable. Late developments that could narrow this margin include an unusually strong Republican recruitment, court-ordered redistricting shifts before November 2026, or a sharp decline in Democratic primary turnout that signals broader base erosion.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 10:58 AM ET
Volume
$24,810End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:58 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Florida's 24th congressional district remains a safely Democratic seat with a partisan voting index around D+22, based on consistent past election margins and voter composition in northern Miami-Dade and southern Broward counties. Longtime incumbent Frederica Wilson announced her retirement in May 2026, triggering a crowded Democratic primary set for August 18 that features leading contenders such as state Senator Shevrin Jones and Miami-Dade Commissioner Oliver Gilbert; recent primary polling shows Jones ahead but the outcome has limited bearing on the general election. Minimal Republican filing activity and fundraising further reduce any competitive threat. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 94% implied probability of victory because historical turnout patterns, district boundaries set in 2025, and the absence of crossover appeal make a Republican general-election win improbable. Late developments that could narrow this margin include an unusually strong Republican recruitment, court-ordered redistricting shifts before November 2026, or a sharp decline in Democratic primary turnout that signals broader base erosion.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$24,810End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:58 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Florida's 24th congressional district remains a safely Democratic seat with a partisan voting index around D+22, based on consistent past election margins and voter composition in northern Miami-Dade and southern Broward counties. Longtime incumbent Frederica Wilson announced her retirement in May 2026, triggering a crowded Democratic primary set for August 18 that features leading contenders such as state Senator Shevrin Jones and Miami-Dade Commissioner Oliver Gilbert; recent primary polling shows Jones ahead but the outcome has limited bearing on the general election. Minimal Republican filing activity and fundraising further reduce any competitive threat. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 94% implied probability of victory because historical turnout patterns, district boundaries set in 2025, and the absence of crossover appeal make a Republican general-election win improbable. Late developments that could narrow this margin include an unusually strong Republican recruitment, court-ordered redistricting shifts before November 2026, or a sharp decline in Democratic primary turnout that signals broader base erosion.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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