**California’s Proposition 40, a one-time 5% wealth tax on residents with net worth above roughly $1 billion, faces strong headwinds one month before the November 3, 2026 ballot.** Opponents, led by major donors including Sergey Brin, have raised over $200 million—far outpacing the roughly $32 million supporting the measure—and placed two competing ballot measures (Propositions 41 and 42) designed to nullify it if either receives more yes votes. Governor Gavin Newsom and several prominent Democrats oppose the initiative, while recent polling shows support hovering between 45% and 52% among likely voters, often short of a clear majority and vulnerable to the counter-proposals. Billionaire relocation and asset shifts have further reduced projected revenue, reinforcing trader expectations that the tax will not ultimately take effect.