Governor Gavin Newsom’s vocal opposition to Proposition 40, combined with organized resistance from some labor groups, business organizations, and substantial opposition spending from high-net-worth donors, has weighed on prospects for the one-time 5% wealth tax on billionaires. The measure, which qualified for the November 3, 2026 ballot after signature gathering and would direct revenue primarily to healthcare programs, faces legal uncertainties around residency rules and valuation that could invite challenges. Recent polls show narrow or fluctuating support among likely voters, with strong partisan divides—Democrats split despite party endorsement—and concerns about resident migration and long-term revenue effects. These factors have shaped trader consensus around the current implied probability favoring rejection.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated31% chance
$3,663,023 Vol.
$3,663,023 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
31% chance
$3,663,023 Vol.
$3,663,023 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Governor Gavin Newsom’s vocal opposition to Proposition 40, combined with organized resistance from some labor groups, business organizations, and substantial opposition spending from high-net-worth donors, has weighed on prospects for the one-time 5% wealth tax on billionaires. The measure, which qualified for the November 3, 2026 ballot after signature gathering and would direct revenue primarily to healthcare programs, faces legal uncertainties around residency rules and valuation that could invite challenges. Recent polls show narrow or fluctuating support among likely voters, with strong partisan divides—Democrats split despite party endorsement—and concerns about resident migration and long-term revenue effects. These factors have shaped trader consensus around the current implied probability favoring rejection.
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ET
Volume
$3,663,023End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Governor Gavin Newsom’s vocal opposition to Proposition 40, combined with organized resistance from some labor groups, business organizations, and substantial opposition spending from high-net-worth donors, has weighed on prospects for the one-time 5% wealth tax on billionaires. The measure, which qualified for the November 3, 2026 ballot after signature gathering and would direct revenue primarily to healthcare programs, faces legal uncertainties around residency rules and valuation that could invite challenges. Recent polls show narrow or fluctuating support among likely voters, with strong partisan divides—Democrats split despite party endorsement—and concerns about resident migration and long-term revenue effects. These factors have shaped trader consensus around the current implied probability favoring rejection.
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,663,023End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Governor Gavin Newsom’s vocal opposition to Proposition 40, combined with organized resistance from some labor groups, business organizations, and substantial opposition spending from high-net-worth donors, has weighed on prospects for the one-time 5% wealth tax on billionaires. The measure, which qualified for the November 3, 2026 ballot after signature gathering and would direct revenue primarily to healthcare programs, faces legal uncertainties around residency rules and valuation that could invite challenges. Recent polls show narrow or fluctuating support among likely voters, with strong partisan divides—Democrats split despite party endorsement—and concerns about resident migration and long-term revenue effects. These factors have shaped trader consensus around the current implied probability favoring rejection.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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