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icon for California Governor Primary Election: First Place
Politics·Primaries

California Governor Primary Election: First Place

icon for California Governor Primary Election: First Place
Politics·Primaries

California Governor Primary Election: First Place

Xavier Becerra 47%

Tom Steyer 25%

Steve Hilton 23%

Chad Bianco 3.3%

Polymarket

$27,901 Vol.

Xavier Becerra 47%

Tom Steyer 25%

Steve Hilton 23%

Chad Bianco 3.3%

Polymarket

$27,901 Vol.

Xavier Becerra

$7,632 Vol.

47%

Tom Steyer

$4,763 Vol.

25%

Steve Hilton

$3,637 Vol.

23%

Chad Bianco

$1,124 Vol.

3%

Matt Mahan

$1,835 Vol.

2%

Katie Porter

$1,177 Vol.

2%

Derek Grasty

$761 Vol.

2%

Raji Rab

$682 Vol.

1%

Daniel Mercuri

$640 Vol.

1%

Elaine Culotti

$551 Vol.

<1%

Thunder Parley

$505 Vol.

<1%

Nicki Minaj

$738 Vol.

<1%

Tony Thurmond

$629 Vol.

<1%

Betty Yee

$658 Vol.

<1%

Carolina Buhler

$615 Vol.

<1%

Antonio Villaraigosa

$605 Vol.

<1%

Leo Zacky

$682 Vol.

<1%

Ramsey Robinson

$666 Vol.

<1%

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most valid votes in this primary election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.Former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra leads trader consensus at 48% implied probability to finish first in California's crowded top-two gubernatorial primary on June 2, driven by his nine-point surge to 19% in the latest Emerson College poll of 1,000 likely voters (May 9-10), capturing 31% of Democrats after Rep. Eric Swalwell's early April exit amid allegations. Billionaire Tom Steyer (24.5%) and Republican commentator Steve Hilton (22.5%) tie at 17%, benefiting from a fragmented Democratic field in a race where economy (42%) and housing affordability (21%) dominate voter concerns. Recent debates have highlighted records, with Becerra deflecting criticism on past agency handling of migrant children and a dormant campaign fraud case, underscoring the volatile path to the November general.

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most valid votes in this primary election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.
Volume
$27,901
End Date
Jun 2, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 10:46 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most valid votes in this primary election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most valid votes in this primary election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.Former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra leads trader consensus at 48% implied probability to finish first in California's crowded top-two gubernatorial primary on June 2, driven by his nine-point surge to 19% in the latest Emerson College poll of 1,000 likely voters (May 9-10), capturing 31% of Democrats after Rep. Eric Swalwell's early April exit amid allegations. Billionaire Tom Steyer (24.5%) and Republican commentator Steve Hilton (22.5%) tie at 17%, benefiting from a fragmented Democratic field in a race where economy (42%) and housing affordability (21%) dominate voter concerns. Recent debates have highlighted records, with Becerra deflecting criticism on past agency handling of migrant children and a dormant campaign fraud case, underscoring the volatile path to the November general.

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most valid votes in this primary election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.
Volume
$27,901
End Date
Jun 2, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 10:46 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most valid votes in this primary election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"California Governor Primary Election: First Place" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 18 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Xavier Becerra" at 47%, followed by "Tom Steyer" at 25%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 47¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 47% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "California Governor Primary Election: First Place" has generated $27.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 16, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "California Governor Primary Election: First Place," browse the 18 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "California Governor Primary Election: First Place" is "Xavier Becerra" at 47%, meaning the market assigns a 47% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Tom Steyer" at 25%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "California Governor Primary Election: First Place" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.